What Trump Is Really Doing With Iran.

Episode Overview

• The Dangers of Regime Change: The episode explores the potentially catastrophic consequences of intervening in Iran, contrasting the "Venezuela Model" (changing the leader but keeping the system) with the "Iraq Model" (total collapse and anarchy).
• The Rise of "Legalistic" Autocracy: Discussion shifts to how modern authoritarianism works, specifically looking at Hungary's Viktor Orbán, who uses laws and lawyers rather than violence to capture the state and economy.
• Global Populist Strategies: The hosts analyze how right-wing movements globally (from Trump to Orbán) share a playbook that uses immigration as a wedge issue to justify exceptional powers and erode democratic checks.
• Nuclear Proliferation Risks: A critical look at how US unpredictability and the potential collapse of Iran could trigger a "free-for-all" nuclear arms race among middle powers like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt.

Key Concepts

• The "Venezuela" vs. "Iraq" Regime Change Models: Washington hawks often debate two outcomes for Iran. The Venezuela Model decapitates the leadership (like removing Maduro) but leaves the "deep state" (military, bureaucracy) intact to maintain order, often resulting in a military junta. The Iraq/Libya Model topples the entire apparatus, creating a power vacuum that breeds civil war and extremism. Both outcomes historically fail to produce democracy.

• The IRGC as an Economic Conglomerate: The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is often misunderstood as merely a military force. In reality, it is a massive business conglomerate controlling ports, construction, and trade monopolies. You cannot simply "remove" the regime leadership because the IRGC is the economy; dismantling them means dismantling the country's financial infrastructure.

• State Capture via "Legalistic Corruption": Unlike Russian oligarchs who often started as gangsters capturing the state, the "Hungarian Model" (seen under Orbán) is led by lawyers. The state nationalizes private industries and re-privatizes them to loyalists with no independent power base. This creates a protected class of allies running media and universities without requiring the overt violence seen in other dictatorships.

• The Nuclear Proliferation Cascade: We are moving from an era of controlled non-proliferation to a survivalist "free-for-all." If Iran is attacked or rushes for a bomb, neighboring powers (Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt) will likely conclude that US security guarantees are worthless. The lesson learned from Ukraine and Libya is that disarmament leads to invasion, incentivizing every middle power to acquire their own nuclear deterrent.

• Immigration as a "Total" Political Weapon: Modern right-wing populism uses immigration not just as a policy issue, but as a "skeleton key" for governance. It simultaneously justifies security crackdowns, cultural defense narratives, and economic protectionism. This triangulation allows leaders to claim "exceptional powers" that override constitutional checks, creating a moral justification for authoritarianism.

Quotes

• At 4:32 - "This is not even Iraq. This is definitely not Venezuela. This is something that has the capacity to provoke all sorts of problems within the region." - Alastair Campbell explaining why the sheer scale of Iran’s military and the Revolutionary Guard makes a direct conflict significantly more dangerous than recent US interventions.
• At 11:36 - "For the Hawks, they think, 'Okay, anything that follows has got to be better'... I of course get the heebie-jeebies because that's of course what we thought with Saddam Hussein... 'It can't possibly be worse.'" - Rory Stewart on the dangerous fallacy of interventionism—the assumption that removing a 'bad' leader automatically results in a 'good' outcome.
• At 12:50 - "What is happening in Iran now says to other countries about the likelihood, or the desire, of them to acquire nuclear weapons... The only way you can actually look after yourself is, genuinely, to go for your own nuclear weapons program." - Alastair Campbell on how US foreign policy is inadvertently incentivizing a global nuclear arms race.
• At 18:50 - "If we give an inch, we're going to be strung up from the lamp posts because everybody knows we have blood on our hands." - Rory Stewart explaining the psychology of the Iranian regime, noting they cannot reform because they fear any sign of weakness will lead to their violent overthrow.
• At 19:16 - "We think of them [The Revolutionary Guard] as an oversized special forces group. They're also a massive business... they run the ports, they run construction... they've got trade monopolies." - Alastair Campbell clarifying that the Iranian regime is deeply embedded in the economy, making "surgical" regime change impossible.
• At 30:03 - "It's not like Russian corruption where the oligarchs were essentially self-made gangsters... This is the other way around. These are people who have no independent power base... they've just been given government contracts." - Rory Stewart distinguishing the Hungarian model of state-sponsored cronyism from the Russian model of gangster-capitalism.
• At 35:45 - "Immigration gives you an argument about security, and culture, and the economy, and identity, and it justifies the exceptional powers... and it gives you a moral dimension." - Rory Stewart synthesizing why immigration remains the most effective tool for right-wing populist movements to consolidate power.

Takeaways

• Evaluate Foreign Intervention Through the Lens of the "Day After": When assessing proposals for regime change (like in Iran), look past the removal of the dictator. Ask whether the plan accounts for the deep state bureaucracy (Venezuela model) or risks a total vacuum (Iraq model).
• Recognize Economic Entanglement in Authoritarian Regimes: Understand that sanctions or military strikes against groups like the IRGC aren't just military actions; they are economic disruptors that can collapse a nation's ability to function, as these groups often run utilities, construction, and trade.
• Identify "Legalistic" Autocracy: Be vigilant against corruption that follows the law rather than breaks it. Watch for governments that nationalize private assets only to sell them back to political allies, effectively capturing the state without violence.
• Understand the Populist "Triangulation" Strategy: Recognize when political leaders use a single issue (like immigration) to justify radical changes in three separate areas: security laws, economic policy, and cultural identity. This is a deliberate tactic to consolidate executive power.