The War Has Already Started. We Just Don’t Call It One

Episode Overview

• This episode traces the evolution of Vladimir Putin’s leadership from a potential Western partner to a "hybrid warrior" and finally to a neo-imperialist aggressor.
• The hosts analyze "active measures" and hybrid warfare, explaining how Russia exploits Western free speech and political polarization to dismantle societies from within.
• A central theme is the dangerous decline of "soft power" (diplomacy and foreign aid) in the UK and West, occurring simultaneously with the rise of new technological threats.
• The discussion highlights a critical shift in global power, where social media algorithms and tech tycoons now wield influence comparable to nation-states in shaping geopolitical outcomes.

Key Concepts

• The Three Stages of Putin Rory Stewart outlines a three-phase evolution of Putin that Western intelligence struggled to track in real-time. First, the "Potential Partner" (2000–2007) who sought integration with the West. Second, the "Hybrid Warrior" (2008–2021) who used assassinations, cyberattacks, and election interference to destabilize adversaries without open war. Third, the "Neo-Imperialist" (2022–Present) who abandoned subtlety for full-scale invasion and territorial conquest.

• "Active Measures" and the Grey Zone This Soviet-era strategy, modernized for the digital age, involves turning a target society’s strengths (openness, free speech) into vulnerabilities. Russia operates in a "grey zone" between peace and war—using disinformation, arson, and sabotage. While Western intelligence agencies recognize this as a state of war, the public and political classes remain in a peacetime mindset, creating a dangerous lack of urgency.

• The Soft Power Paradox The UK is dismantling its diplomatic infrastructure ("soft power") while relying on isolated "hard power" assets. By slashing the Foreign Office, closing embassies, and cutting the BBC World Service, Western nations are blinding themselves to emerging threats and losing influence in the Global South. The hosts argue it is strategic madness to fund nuclear deterrents while cutting the diplomatic networks required to prevent conflicts from escalating to that point.

• Ideological Alignment vs. Transactional Bribery A dangerous shift has occurred in how foreign powers influence Western politics. While bribery exists, the deeper threat is "conviction." Nationalist movements and far-right figures in the West align with Russia not necessarily for money, but because they share a worldview: a defense of "traditional values" against "woke globalization." This makes the alliance stronger and harder to detect than simple corruption.

• Algorithmic Statehood The mechanisms of social media have internalized the destabilization tactics Russia previously had to manufacture manually. In 2016, Russian interference was required to weaponize anger; today, platform algorithms do this automatically to drive engagement. Consequently, tech platforms and their owners (like Elon Musk) now possess geopolitical power equivalent to nation-states.

Quotes

• At 3:41 - "Version 3 from 2022 is the full-out neo-imperialist... Version 2 was someone who was doing hybrid warfare and trying to destabilize the West... Version 3 is the moment at which Russia went well beyond little green men... into a full-on explicit invasion of a neighboring country." - Stewart clarifying the distinct phases of Putin's aggression that the West failed to predict.

• At 5:35 - "Active measures... is turning a society against itself, turning the strengths of Britain against its own weaknesses." - Stewart defining the core mechanism of Russian interference: using democracy's openness to destroy it.

• At 7:02 - "He felt the West did not take him seriously... The West totally takes him seriously now." - Campbell explaining the psychological resentment and need for respect driving Putin's foreign policy.

• At 18:26 - "As states race for tech supremacy, or as some algorithms become as powerful as states, these hyper-personalized tools can become a new vector for conflict and control." - Campbell quoting an MI6 speech on how technology has become a primary battlefield.

• At 21:55 - "The Foreign Office is now going through the most brutal cuts it's ever seen... We dismantled an enormous amount of our national intelligence infrastructure in other people's countries." - Stewart critiquing the reduction of diplomatic capabilities during a time of heightened global threat.

• At 23:04 - "We're creating a mad world in which we've dismantled our soft power and we somehow believe that we're going to be able to operate with a couple of aircraft carriers with nothing to protect them and some big nuclear weapons." - Stewart highlighting the strategic error of investing in military hardware while gutting diplomatic influence.

• At 27:40 - "Their big idea is basically this: that they need to fragment and weaken Europe and the United States... the best ways to do that are to destroy institutions like NATO and the European Union." - Stewart outlining the primary objective of Russian foreign policy is fragmentation, not just conquest.

• At 28:37 - "They basically agree with Russia that there is a big fight for traditional Christian values... against 'woke' modern ideology. They basically have the same imperial nostalgia." - Stewart explaining why Western nationalists naturally align with Putin beyond financial incentives.

• At 42:50 - "It's quite possible that Trump wouldn't have won the 2016 election without Russia's help... By the time you get to Trump 2, he barely needs Russia because social media on its own weaponizes anger." - Stewart observing that social media architecture now automates the destabilization Russia used to have to organize manually.

Takeaways

• Shift your mindset to the "Grey Zone": Recognize that modern conflict rarely looks like WWII. Cyberattacks, disinformation, and sabotage are acts of war, and acknowledging this reality is the first step in countering it.
• Support "Soft Power" investment: Understand that language expertise, diplomacy, and foreign aid are not luxuries but critical security infrastructure that prevents adversaries from filling power vacuums.
• Scrutinize the "shared values" narrative: Be skeptical of domestic political movements that align with foreign autocracies; this is often not just political posturing but a genuine ideological alliance against democratic institutions.
• Treat algorithms as geopolitical actors: Do not view social media platforms as neutral utilities; recognize them as active participants in international conflict that can weaponize societal anger more effectively than foreign spies.
• Watch for the "fragmentation" strategy: When analyzing news or political movements, ask if the outcome serves to break the bonds between allies (US/EU/NATO), as this is the primary goal of modern hybrid warfare.