Justin Katz- Market update 11//14/2025

J
Justin Katz • Nov 14, 2025

Audio Brief

Show transcript
This episode covers a successful market pullback prediction, the speaker's aggressive positioning, and key signals for the next major market move. There are three key takeaways from this analysis. First, the speaker accurately predicted a sharp, three-session SPX pullback from 6850 and is now scaling into maximum long positions. He has entered 50% of planned trades and will add the rest based on confirmation signals during weakness. This strategy emphasizes incrementally adding to positions, rather than going all-in at once. Second, a crucial technical signal for the pullback's end is a marginal new low followed by a reclaim of SPX 6725 intraday. This "if-then" scenario confirms a market bottom and triggers adding to positions with confidence. The speaker anticipates this reversal will be extremely fast. Finally, markets often engineer volatility to shake traders out of correct positions before a rally, a "beach ball underwater effect." Traders should master the psychology of holding positions, trusting analysis through noise. Current volatility is minor compared to an anticipated major "mania" phase around 2026. This analysis provides a detailed roadmap for navigating current market dynamics and preparing for future opportunities.

Episode Overview

  • The speaker recaps a successful prediction he made for a "sharp pullback" and discusses profitable trades taken as a result.
  • He outlines his current market positioning, noting that he is in a "max position" for some swings and is looking to add more.
  • He provides specific key levels and scenarios to watch for that will signal the end of the pullback and the beginning of the next major move up.
  • The episode concludes with a long-term perspective on market cycles, suggesting a major "mania" phase is still to come.

Key Concepts

  • Market Recap: The speaker correctly predicted a sharp, three-session pullback when SPX was at 6850 and is now analyzing the follow-through.
  • Positioning Strategy: He is scaling into long positions, having already entered at 50% capacity on some trades, and plans to add the remaining 25-50% based on specific confirmation signals.
  • Key Technical Levels: A crucial signal for a market bottom would be a marginal new low followed by a reclaim of the 6725 level on SPX intraday.
  • Market Psychology: The speaker emphasizes that markets often engineer volatility and weakness to shake traders out of correct positions before a significant rally. He refers to this as the "beach ball underwater effect."
  • Long-Term Outlook: He believes the current market volatility is minor ("child's play") compared to the major "mania" phase he anticipates in the coming years (2026), which will be characterized by extreme price action.

Quotes

  • At 00:11 - "had an expectation of a sharp pullback for the next three sessions." - The speaker provides context by recapping his accurate prediction from a previous video, which formed the basis for his recent profitable trades.
  • At 01:22 - "That will give me early indication that we have completed this move to the down the sharp pullback and we are going right back up and it's gonna be so fast." - He explains the specific technical signal (reclaiming 6725) that would confirm the market has bottomed and is ready for a rapid reversal.
  • At 03:00 - "The market's going to do the most to get you out of the right trade. You want everyone panicking." - He describes the psychological aspect of trading, highlighting how market makers create fear and volatility to force retail traders out of their positions before a big move.

Takeaways

  • Develop a clear plan for scaling into positions. Rather than going all-in at once, add to your positions incrementally as the market provides confirmation signals during periods of weakness.
  • Define specific "if-then" scenarios for your trades. Have a clear price level that, if reclaimed, confirms your thesis and acts as a trigger to add to your position with confidence.
  • Master the psychology of holding a position. Understand that markets often create volatility to shake you out; sometimes the most profitable action is to sit on your hands and trust your analysis through the noise.