VOCÊ ESTÁ INVESTINDO EM BITCOIN DO JEITO ERRADO | Crypto Never Sleeps #32

Episode Overview

• The podcast explores why an investor might choose to mine Bitcoin as an alternative to buying it directly, framing mining as an automated Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy that removes market timing emotions.
• It breaks down the two primary mining models—self-mining for those with cheap energy and colocation/hosting for a more managed approach—while explaining the variability of returns.
• The discussion covers the technical evolution and infrastructure of Bitcoin mining, from the concept of hashrate and advanced cooling methods like immersion to the practical setup of mining farms in containers.
• It touches on the geopolitics of mining, particularly the growing concentration of hashrate in the US, and concludes with personal insights on price predictions and the importance of a long-term holding strategy.

Key Concepts

• Mining as Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): Mining is presented as a strategy to accumulate Bitcoin daily in small fractions, which removes the psychological stress and emotional decision-making associated with timing the market based on price fluctuations.
• Self-Mining vs. Colocation: The conversation contrasts two main mining models. Self-mining is viable for individuals with access to very cheap energy, while colocation (hosting) offers a managed service with historical average returns of around 4% per month, though these are highly variable.
• Hash Rate Evolution: The concept of "hash rate" is defined as a mining machine's processing power. Its evolution has been exponential, with a massive leap from early CPU capabilities (kilohashes) to modern ASICs (terahashes), compared to the difference between dynamite and a nuclear bomb.
• Geopolitical Concentration: A significant portion of Bitcoin's global hashrate (estimated at 44%) is currently concentrated in the United States. As this figure nears 50%, it may trigger other countries to create incentives to attract miners and promote decentralization.
• Mining Infrastructure & Cooling: The physical setup of mining farms often involves modified shipping containers with "hot" and "cold" zones for air cooling. More advanced methods include immersion cooling (submerging machines in non-conductive oil) and hydro cooling.
• Waste Heat Repurposing: A practical byproduct of mining is the immense amount of heat generated. This heat can be harnessed for "home mining" applications, such as warming pools, jacuzzis, and entire houses in colder climates.

Quotes

• At 0:00 - "Por que eu mineraria e não compraria Bitcoin?" - The host poses the central question of the discussion: why choose mining over direct purchase?
• At 0:04 - "Porque elas estão fazendo um DCA... elas estão comprando fraçõezinhas de Bitcoin a todos os dias, sem se preocupar com o preço médio." - The guest explains that mining acts as a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy, removing the emotional stress of timing the market.
• At 0:18 - "Eu não estou preocupado, porque eu estou gerando fraçõezinhas dele a todo dia." - The guest shares his personal perspective, explaining that because he is constantly generating new Bitcoin through mining, he isn't worried about short-term price drops.
• At 0:36 - "Primeiro entenda o Bitcoin como ele funciona... porque senão você vai olhar ele só como uma moeda, só como dinheiro, e não é isso que a gente quer entender hoje como Bitcoin." - The guest advises that before mining, one must understand Bitcoin's fundamental value beyond its monetary price.
• At 1:42 - "Minerador eu brinco que é um funcionário perfeito que não paga décimo terceiro, funciona 24 horas por dia, nunca reclama." - The guest uses an analogy to describe the efficiency and consistency of a mining rig as a perfect, non-complaining employee.
• At 2:26 - "O melhor preço para se comprar Bitcoin foi ontem e o segundo melhor é hoje." - The guest concludes his point by stating the classic crypto adage about the best time to invest, emphasizing a long-term perspective.
• At 23:44 - "Se você não tem custo de energia ou se você tem um custo de energia muito baixo, você vai pagar a máquina em cinco meses, oito meses, 10 meses." - On the potential payback period for self-mining under ideal energy conditions.
• At 23:52 - "Quando a gente fala de hosting de colocation, a gente tá falando de um retorno aí de mais ou menos 4% ao mês." - Providing a historical average return for investors using hosting services, based on the last 12-18 months of data.
• At 24:04 - "Não é algo fixo, é variável. Tem mês que vai dar 4%, tem mês que vai dar 5, depende do preço do Bitcoin, depende da dificuldade da rede." - A critical disclaimer about the variability of mining returns, emphasizing that a 4% monthly return is not guaranteed.
• At 25:39 - "É tipo a dinamite e a bomba nuclear, né?" - An analogy made by one of the hosts to describe the exponential increase in mining power from early CPUs to modern mining machines.
• At 52:25 - "Cada vez mais que a gente se aproxima dos 50% da... da rede dentro dos Estados Unidos, a gente começa a ver outros países se preocupando em trazer a mineração..." - Augusto explains the geopolitical game theory that will likely drive the decentralization of hashrate away from the US.
• At 54:50 - "É a mesma coisa dentro de uma mineradora. A gente tem um container onde tem a área fria, onde tem a colmeia..." - Augusto describes the typical infrastructure of an air-cooled mining farm built inside a shipping container.
• At 57:18 - (Question: "Você literalmente põe a máquina dentro do óleo?") "Exatamente. E ela tá lá girando, submersa." - Explaining the process of immersion cooling, where an entire mining machine is submerged in oil.
• At 1:03:39 - "O maior erro, que acho que todo mundo faria, é ter conhecido o bitcoin tão cedo e, mesmo que tenha comprado em 2017, por exemplo, não ter 'holdado' 100%." - Augusto reflects on his biggest mistake in his crypto journey: selling Bitcoin too early instead of holding it all.

Takeaways

• Use Bitcoin mining as a disciplined, automated method for Dollar-Cost Averaging to remove the emotional burden of trying to time the market.
• Before investing in mining hardware, prioritize a deep understanding of Bitcoin's fundamental value proposition beyond just its price.
• Evaluate your access to cheap or free energy, as this is the primary factor determining the profitability and payback period of a self-mining operation.
• Treat historical returns from colocation services as a variable guide, not a fixed guarantee, as profits are subject to Bitcoin's price and network difficulty.
• Combine direct purchasing with mining as complementary strategies to diversify your method of Bitcoin acquisition.
• If considering home mining, investigate practical ways to repurpose the significant waste heat to offset other household costs, such as water or home heating.
• Adopt a long-term holding perspective, as the experience of early adopters often shows that selling Bitcoin too early is a major regret.
• Monitor the global distribution of hashrate, as increasing concentration in one country can signal future shifts in the mining landscape as other nations compete.