O FUTURO DO DINHEIRO, TOKENIZAÇÃO E O COLAPSO DO SISTEMA FINANCEIRO TRADICIONAL | CNS #38

Episode Overview

• This episode features an in-depth conversation with veteran crypto fund managers Axel Blikstad and Alexandre Vasarhelyi (from BLP Asset), exploring the evolution of blockchain from a speculative niche to critical financial infrastructure.
• The discussion frames the current market cycle not as a hype bubble, but as a transition phase where major institutions (like BlackRock) and nation-states are adopting crypto to solve real-world problems like settlement efficiency and geopolitical neutrality.
• The narrative progresses from the fundamental value of Bitcoin as "Gold 2.0" to the nuanced competition between smart contract platforms (Ethereum vs. Solana) and the ultimate "end game" of total asset tokenization.
• Listeners will gain a professional investor's perspective on portfolio construction, risk management (custody vs. price), and why stablecoins are becoming vital to the US macroeconomy.

Key Concepts

• The Evolution of Financial "Plumbing": Blockchain is redefined as a superior technology for custody and transfer, not just currency. Similar to how stocks moved from paper to digital databases, blockchain represents the next step: a decentralized, immutable ledger that removes expensive intermediaries (banks, clearinghouses) and allows for 24/7 global trading.
• Institutional Adoption & The "Lagging Indicator": Institutional entry (like BlackRock and Fidelity) confirms the technology's legitimacy. The speakers note that by the time banks embrace an asset class, the "early adopter" phase is over. The current opportunity lies in overcoming psychological denial as the asset moves from "scam" to standard portfolio allocation.
• Bitcoin vs. Gold (The "Central Bank Buy" Divergence): While both are stores of value, Gold has recently outperformed Bitcoin because Central Banks (China, Russia) are buying it to diversify away from US Treasuries. Bitcoin currently lags because regulations prevent Central Banks from holding it on balance sheets, though this is expected to change.
• The Economic Necessity of Stablecoins: Stablecoins are not just crypto-casino chips; they are a major source of demand for US Treasury bills. As foreign nations reduce their US debt holdings, the US government has a strategic interest in regulating and legitimizing stablecoins (like Tether/Circle) to ensure a consistent buyer for its debt.
• "Winner Takes Most" vs. Multipolar Infrastructure: While Bitcoin has no real competitor as a store of value, the infrastructure layer (Layer 1s) will likely be multipolar based on utility. High-value settlements requiring maximum security will stay on Ethereum, while high-frequency, low-value transactions (like payments) will migrate to faster chains like Solana.
• Tokenization as the "End Game": The ultimate vision is a world where all assets (real estate, stocks, bonds) are tokenized. This creates "absolute liquidity," where algorithms can instantly swap a fraction of a stock for a cup of coffee, potentially rendering the concept of holding "cash" obsolete.
• Custody Risk vs. Price Risk: A critical lesson for investors is that the biggest risk in crypto isn't volatility (price going down), but custody failure (exchange hacks or bankruptcy). The shift toward regulated ETFs and institutional-grade custody is solving this existential threat.

Quotes

• At 0:08:49 - "A gente era percebido como não sério... Alguns achavam que era dinheiro de bandido... Hoje em dia, dois dias atrás, o principal ministro dos Estados Unidos falou que Bitcoin pode ser uma reserva de valor." - Illustrating the massive reputational shift of crypto from an illicit tool to a recognized asset class.
• At 0:10:45 - "O blockchain é simplesmente uma outra forma de ser eletrônica, é uma forma mais eficiente... Você tira esse intermediador... qualquer um consegue comprovar que existe ou não existe e comprova de onde veio e pra onde foi." - Explaining blockchain not as magic, but as a more efficient evolution of current electronic ledgers.
• At 0:17:03 - "O melhor negócio do mundo é um pedágio numa ponte... As empresas querem um monopólio. Criptoativos, uma das poucas grandes qualidades, é que ninguém consegue ter um monopólio em cima." - Contrasting traditional rent-seeking business models with the open, competitive nature of decentralized networks.
• At 0:18:19 - "Imagina você ser o tradutor universal num mundo que está cada dia mais isolado... A vantagem deste produto é muito grande e ele só pode ser o tradutor universal se ele for percebido por todas as partes como neutro." - Defining Bitcoin's geopolitical utility as a neutral settlement layer in a fragmented world.
• At 0:25:29 - "The client of gold today are the Central Banks... Bitcoin is not on the balance sheet of almost any Central Bank. So, for me, the big difference... is that Bitcoin generally takes much longer to respond to this movement." - Identifying the structural reason for the price divergence between Gold and BTC.
• At 0:30:54 - "Every intelligent guy changes his opinion. The only one who doesn't change their opinion is the guy who doesn't make mistakes. I haven't met that guy yet." - Defending institutional investors flipping their stance on Bitcoin as a sign of intelligence, not hypocrisy.
• At 0:37:54 - "Part of the financial market's job is to make predictions. When you have a predictive market, it helps you in your forecasts." - Validating products like Polymarket as essential tools for professional risk modeling.
• At 0:39:36 - "We have already left that business of 'crypto is good for nothing,' but we are not yet at the business of 'crypto serves for something' [in the eyes of most investors]." - Perfectly situating the current market cycle between skepticism and full utility.
• At 0:51:29 - "The biggest advantage of crypto is interoperability. If you are not on a blockchain that has a lot of things, I think it is a very big disadvantage." - Explaining why isolated high-performance blockchains often fail against established ecosystems like Ethereum.
• At 0:53:20 - "Protocols will die or not depending on the moment they arrived. Some things... the idea was good, but it arrived too early in time... It withers." - Highlighting that timing is as critical as technology; being too early is indistinguishable from being wrong.
• At 1:00:01 - "You buy, you sell, you don't fall in love. If you want Bitcoin that much, you can fall in love, but do it with restrictions." - A golden rule for crypto investing: avoid emotional attachment to "communities" or theses.
• At 1:02:18 - "I think the biggest risk in crypto is not price, it is custody." - Distinguishing crypto's unique risk profile where asset loss is permanent, unlike traditional brokerage accounts.
• At 1:06:40 - "If you know which index is going to go up, passive [investing] always wins... The difficulty is... knowing which index." - Deconstructing the myth of passive investing in crypto; unlike the S&P 500, sector rotation is too violent for static indexing.
• At 1:17:40 - "It is much more efficient if it is one [blockchain]... If you have a blockchain with 10 trillion dollars, the security is much greater." - Defending the "Winner Takes Most" thesis based on the correlation between liquidity and security.
• At 1:22:33 - "If you have a currency or a store of value, there's only Bitcoin... But in the infrastructure part... I don't think it's winner-takes-all." - Distinguishing between Bitcoin's monopoly on money versus the multipolar competition in blockchain infrastructure.
• At 1:29:18 - "Why is it so important? Because the dollar is dominant... He needs to finance the debt. Who wants to buy US debt?" - Explaining the geopolitical incentive for the US government to approve stablecoin regulation.
• At 1:30:36 - "Tether today... is the second or third largest holder of US securities... It is very important for him to have a captive buyer given that he is losing some of his clients." - Highlighting the systemic importance of stablecoin issuers to the US economy.
• At 1:54:58 - "For me, the End Game is: everything will be tokenized. When everything is tokenized, you don't even need to have money anymore." - Describing the ultimate utility of blockchain technology beyond simple currency speculation.
• At 1:55:38 - "When there is Petrobras [tokenized], you will swap Solana for Petrobras... you won't need Reais or Dollars anymore." - Explaining how tokenization removes friction and creates absolute liquidity between asset classes.

Takeaways

• Adopt Active Management: Avoid "buying the index" in crypto. The market is inefficient and sectors rotate violently; passive strategies often hold "zombie" coins while missing infrastructure shifts.
• Prioritize Custody Security: Treat custody as your primary risk. If you cannot self-custody securely, utilize regulated ETFs or institutional-grade custodians. Never leave significant assets on unregulated exchanges.
• Use Prediction Markets for Macro Data: Don't just trade on prediction markets (like Polymarket); use their data to inform your real-world business and investment decisions, as they often lead traditional polling.
• Differentiate Your Portfolio Strategy: Allocate differently for "Store of Value" (Bitcoin) vs. "Technology Infrastructure" (Ethereum/Solana). Understand that they serve different economic functions.
• Monitor Stablecoin Regulation: Watch US legislative moves on stablecoins. This is a key signal for broader adoption, as it aligns with US government interests to finance debt.
• Avoid Emotional Attachment: Practice "dispassionate investing." Be willing to sell a project you love if the fundamentals degrade or the valuation becomes irrational.
• Look for "Revenue per Employee": Evaluate crypto projects based on efficiency. The most sustainable protocols (like Tether or Uniswap) generate massive revenue with tiny teams, indicating a strong competitive moat.
• Watch the "Fee Switch": In DeFi investing, look for protocols that are moving toward turning on the "fee switch" (distributing profits to token holders), as this transitions a token from a "governance right" to a cash-flow-producing asset.
• Prepare for Tokenized Assets: Understand that the future of finance is asset-agnostic. Be ready for a shift where stocks, bonds, and real estate become as liquid and swappable as currency.
• Respect Market Timing: Recognize that a great technology launched too early often fails. Validate that the infrastructure is ready to support the use case before investing.
• Track Institutional Signals: Don't wait for institutions to be "all in." Watch for the setup (ETFs, regulatory clarity). By the time they fully deploy capital, the biggest gains are gone.