The Worst Takes on Venezuela

Episode Overview

• The episode debunks common myths and critiques poor analysis surrounding the U.S. operation targeting Venezuela's leadership.
• It explores the geopolitical context of the Venezuela strategy, including potential motivations related to oil prices, domestic politics, and its comparison to potential actions against Iran.
• The discussion refutes the idea that the U.S. action is "unprecedented" by placing it within the long history of American interventionism in Latin America.
• The hosts analyze how both liberal and conservative administrations use moral justifications to advance foreign policy objectives based on national interest and power.

Key Concepts

• Regime Recalibration in Venezuela: The U.S. strategy is framed not as a full regime change but as a significant adjustment of Venezuela's leadership, made possible by a degree of constructive dialogue with figures within the government.
• Venezuela vs. Iran Strategic Comparison: The conversation contrasts the Venezuelan situation with Iran, highlighting that Iran has a greater capacity for asymmetric retaliation (e.g., closing the Strait of Hormuz) and lacks the same diplomatic openings, making a similar U.S. operation far riskier.
• Historical Context of U.S. Intervention: The claim that U.S. actions in Venezuela are "unprecedented" is debunked by citing a long history of similar American interventions in Latin American countries, including Honduras, Nicaragua, Chile, and others.
• Bipartisan Interventionism: The podcast argues that the use of moral or humanitarian justifications for military action, such as the "Responsibility to Protect" doctrine, is a tool used by both liberal and conservative U.S. administrations to pursue geopolitical goals.
• Geopolitics and National Interest: A central theme is that in international relations, raw power and national interest often supersede stated ideologies, international law, and moral arguments.
• Authoritarian State Agency: The speakers emphasize that authoritarian states like Venezuela and Cuba are not merely puppets of larger powers like Russia or China but possess their own agency and strategic interests.

Quotes

• At 0:08 - "In this episode, Marco and I break apart some of the myths and bad reporting and bad takes that have been out there about the US, uh, attack on Venezuela, kidnapping of Maduro, whatever you want to call it." - Jacob Shapiro provides an overview of the episode's central theme.
• At 8:17 - "I think there's another logic and that other logic is that Saudi Arabia is just trying to help Donald Trump keep CPI, keep inflation low." - Marko Papic offers a political theory for Saudi Arabia's oil production strategy, suggesting it's designed to benefit the Trump administration domestically.
• At 10:44 - "The whole point of MAGA philosophy is like, look, you can do whatever you want to your people domestically. Like we don't really give a shit. Just make sure that you do not contravene American interests." - Marko Papic explains his confusion over recent Trump administration rhetoric supporting Iranian protestors.
• At 13:25 - "The real issue is that if this scenario, which is unique to Venezuela... if that's applied to Iran, I think that's where this gets really, really bad. And that's usually how politicians and policymakers make mistakes. They take one success and apply it to something else." - Marko Papic warns against the danger of applying the Venezuela strategy to a different geopolitical context like Iran.
• At 25:30 - "That to me sounds like a drumbeat, a media drumbeat to try and force action." - In reference to the increased media coverage of protests in Iran, suggesting it's intended to pressure Western governments into intervening.
• At 26:21 - "I would say it's like regime recalibration in a significant way from an American perspective." - Describing the US strategy in Venezuela as something less than a full regime change, but a significant adjustment of its leadership and alignment.
• At 28:38 - "It can load up thousands and thousands of dinghies and Zodiac boats with explosives and shut down the Strait of Hormuz." - Explaining Iran's asymmetric capability to inflict significant economic pain on the world in response to an attack.
• At 35:01 - "If you think this is unprecedented, may I please refer you to the history of US intervention in countries like Honduras, Nicaragua, the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, and Chile, and I may have even missed a few." - A direct refutation of the idea that the US operation against Maduro is unique, citing a long history of similar actions in Latin America.
• At 51:50 - "They've just chosen to bathe not in aloof indifference, Marko, but in ignorance. They've just decided to pretend like history and U.S. behavior over the past hundred years doesn't matter, doesn't exist." - Criticizing commentators who call the US action in Venezuela "unprecedented" for ignoring a century of American interventionism.
• At 52:56 - "It's 'Responsibility to Protect'... 'We have a responsibility to protect human beings, and so we will bomb the crap out of this country.'" - Sarcastically explaining the rationale for "liberal intervention," highlighting the hypocrisy of using humanitarian justifications for military action.

Takeaways

• Avoid applying a successful foreign policy template from one country to another without a deep analysis of the unique local context and potential for retaliation.
• Analyze current U.S. foreign policy by considering the consistent, century-long history of American interventionism rather than viewing events in isolation.
• Critically evaluate the stated moral justifications for foreign interventions, as they often conceal underlying national and strategic interests.
• Recognize that effective diplomatic strategy requires tailoring approaches to specific regimes, as tactics that work with one state may fail with another.
• Understand that in geopolitical analysis, the pursuit of national interest and the exercise of power are often more predictive of a state's behavior than its stated ideology.
• Acknowledge the agency of smaller nations; do not assume they are merely pawns being manipulated by great powers.