The real COBOL programmer shortage is 5-10 years out

Episode Overview

• The discussion centers on the perceived shortage of COBOL programmers, arguing that while there isn't a shortage now, one is imminent within the next 5-10 years.
• The speakers explore the career dynamics for COBOL developers, including the aging workforce, lack of new training programs, and entry-level opportunities.
• A key point of debate is the attractiveness of a COBOL career path compared to modern software development roles, considering salary, work environment, and non-monetary benefits.
• The conversation touches on how experience in legacy systems can still lead to senior, high-paying roles as developers gain broader enterprise-level skills.

Key Concepts

The main ideas discussed include the impending COBOL talent gap due to retiring programmers and a lack of educational pipelines. The speakers contrast the current availability of COBOL programmers with the future scarcity. They also delve into the financial and environmental factors that influence a developer's career choice, comparing the stable but potentially lower-paying COBOL roles with high-paying startup jobs. The discussion highlights that a start in COBOL can be a valuable entry point into the tech industry, leading to broad software engineering skills and career growth.

Quotes

• At 00:08 - "But there is going to be. Five or 10 years there's going to be because nobody's teaching COBOL and these folks are retiring every day." - Explaining why a future shortage of COBOL programmers is inevitable despite the current supply.
• At 01:01 - "Like sometimes you're attracted to environment, and sometimes you're attracted to a money outcome..." - Questioning what makes a COBOL developer role attractive beyond salary, considering other software development jobs may offer significantly higher pay.

Takeaways

• A significant shortage of COBOL programmers is expected in the next 5-10 years, creating future opportunities.
• The primary drivers of this shortage are the mass retirement of the current workforce and the lack of new developers being trained in the language.
• While entry-level COBOL salaries may not compete with top-tier tech roles, they offer a stable pathway into the software industry for individuals without extensive coding backgrounds.
• Experience in mainframe development can lead to senior, high-paying software engineering roles as developers acquire skills with modern tools (like Git, Jira) and integrate with other languages (like Java, Python).
• To attract new talent, companies relying on COBOL must emphasize non-monetary benefits and create an appealing work environment.