Starting Five: US Presidents

Episode Overview

• The hosts rank the top five and bottom five U.S. presidents based on their foreign policy and geopolitical competence, using metrics like the "degree of difficulty" of the challenges they faced.
• The discussion covers a wide range of presidents, from George Washington and FDR, who are praised for their foundational leadership, to more modern figures like Truman, Clinton, and Biden, who are heavily criticized for major blunders.
• The episode explores the recurring themes in U.S. foreign policy, such as the tension between pragmatism and ideology, the consequences of overextending American power, and how domestic political pressures often lead to disastrous international decisions.
• Before the main topic, the hosts share personal anecdotes and geopolitical tidbits, including a surprising story about one host's high school connection to Kim Jong Un's brother.

Key Concepts

• Degree of Difficulty: A primary metric used to evaluate presidents, assessing the complexity of the geopolitical environment they inherited and the challenges they faced. George Washington is cited as having the highest degree of difficulty.
• Strategic Patience vs. Political Vanity: The contrast between FDR's careful management of an isolationist public before WWII and Truman's rash, politically motivated decisions leading to the Korean War.
• The Unipolar Moment: The post-Cold War period of uncontested U.S. dominance, which the hosts argue Bill Clinton squandered through personal distractions and a lack of strategic focus.
• Precedent of Executive Overreach: The idea that Truman's decision to enter the Korean War as a UN "police action" without a congressional declaration of war created a dangerous loophole for future presidents to bypass the Constitution.
• Value-Laden Foreign Policy: A critique of the Clinton-era approach of selectively applying principles like "responsibility to protect," creating a hypocritical standard that adversaries later exploited.
• Legacy of Covert Action: The long-term negative consequences of Eisenhower-era policies, which institutionalized the "domino theory" and empowered the CIA to conduct destabilizing covert operations worldwide.
• Morally Compromised Effectiveness: A recurring theme, particularly in the discussion of Richard Nixon, who is considered a highly effective and shrewd foreign policy operator despite his significant moral and ethical failings.

Quotes

• At 1:21 - "How quickly people get entitled to free content being delivered on a schedule that they think is absolutely critical for them." - Jacob humorously comments on the demands of their audience after a short break.
• At 6:05 - "Well, I played basketball with his brother." - Marko reveals his unexpected personal connection to the Kim Jong Un family.
• At 12:51 - "My old test, my litmus test is who would you want to go with you to negotiate with a used car salesman?" - Marko explains his personal, practical metric for evaluating a president's tactical and negotiation skills.
• At 24:55 - "'That was the only... that was the only example we could really come up with.'" - The hosts discuss how the 1983 invasion of Grenada is arguably the only instance of a successful U.S. military intervention leading to positive regime change.
• At 25:11 - "Maybe where Reagan doesn't get enough credit... was Beirut bombing and the US saying just like, 'Uh, we out.'" - A host praises Reagan's difficult but wise decision to withdraw from Lebanon after the 1983 barracks bombing.
• At 26:43 - "He had the highest degree of difficulty of any of them by far. I mean, maybe Lincoln can make an argument there." - A host argues that George Washington's foreign policy achievements are the most impressive because he had to create a nation from nothing.
• At 29:01 - "He had to negotiate with someone like Joseph Stalin, definitely passes my used-car-salesman test." - The speaker praises Franklin D. Roosevelt's shrewdness in dealing with a brutal dictator to achieve victory in WWII.
• At 30:24 - "The thing to me that is most remarkable about FDR was even though strategically he wanted the U.S. in the war much earlier, U.S. public opinion was not with him." - A host highlights FDR's "strategic patience" in managing domestic politics to enter a necessary war.
• At 56:47 - "He's copying and pasting FDR's plans and then actually butchering them in the implementation." - A host counters the praise for Truman, arguing his post-war achievements were unoriginal and poorly executed.
• At 57:43 - "He did flip China. So let's not forget that. That was a big, big deal." - The speaker justifies placing Richard Nixon on a "best of" list, highlighting the strategic importance of opening relations with China.
• At 59:08 - "I'm going to put Barack Obama on my bench for foreign policy." - Acknowledging it will be an unpopular opinion, a host adds Obama to his list of effective foreign policy leaders for managing inherited crises.
• At 1:02:31 - "I think he was an odious little toad of a man. I hate everything about him." - While agreeing on Nixon's effectiveness, a host expresses his intense personal disdain for Henry Kissinger.
• At 1:03:53 - "First and foremost, Joe Biden... I would say the worst president in the history of the United States of America for foreign policy." - The host begins his "worst presidents" list with a shocking and controversial number one pick.
• At 1:06:37 - "He's the Zaza Pachulia that sticks his leg out underneath Kawhi in the playoffs." - The hosts use a basketball metaphor to describe Richard Nixon as a "dirty" but effective player you'd want on your team.
• At 86:44 - "I think Korea was just such a massive geopolitical blunder." - The host argues that President Truman's handling of the Korean War was one of the largest foreign policy mistakes in U.S. history.
• At 87:40 - "It is all enabled by President Truman giving the middle finger to the Constitution... because he got caught with his pants down on Korea, didn't want to be seen as a weak Democrat." - The speaker claims Truman's unconstitutional entry into the Korean War was driven by political self-preservation.
• At 92:35 - "He had the lowest degree of difficulty of any US president... all he had to do was be... the good president of a unipolar hegemon. And instead, he spent his time... fooling around with interns in the White House." - The speaker argues Bill Clinton squandered an incredibly advantageous geopolitical position through personal distractions.
• At 94:10 - "He really started the normative, value-laden foreign policy... it was this hypocritical, non-objective application of 'responsibility to protect' that opened the door to its use later on." - The host critiques the Clinton administration for establishing a selectively applied foreign policy doctrine.
• At 1:03:09 - "When Donald Trump says this would have never happened under my watch, I actually think he's right." - The speaker agrees with Donald Trump's assertion that the war in Ukraine would not have started during his presidency.
• At 1:09:55 - "This notion that Ukraine must win, which is a mantra repeated by the Joe Biden acolytes in Washington D.C... It was Ukraine must win. That was the end of every breathless speech." - The host criticizes the Biden administration for having a simplistic and undefined policy goal in Ukraine.

Takeaways

• Evaluate leaders based on the difficulty of their circumstances and their strategic process, not just the final outcomes of their policies.
• Truly effective statesmanship requires a difficult combination of high-minded principles and ruthless pragmatism.
• Domestic political pressures, particularly the fear of appearing "weak," consistently drive disastrous American foreign policy decisions.
• Bypassing constitutional checks on power, even for seemingly justified reasons, establishes dangerous precedents that erode the rule of law.
• Periods of unparalleled national advantage can be easily squandered by a lack of strategic vision and personal discipline in leadership.
• Avoid adopting ideological foreign policy doctrines that are applied hypocritically, as they undermine credibility and can be used by adversaries.
• The most significant foreign policy blunders often stem from misjudging the global landscape and overextending national power.
• The ability to manage public opinion and patiently wait for the opportune moment ("strategic patience") is a crucial but rare leadership skill.
• Be wary of simple mantras as foreign policy goals; they often mask a lack of a clear, achievable strategic objective.
• A president's legacy is often deeply contradictory, with major achievements coexisting alongside catastrophic failures.
• Long-term thinking is paramount; short-term, covert solutions can create decades of unforeseen geopolitical instability.
• When assessing a leader, consider a practical test: would you trust their shrewdness and negotiating skill in a high-stakes personal situation?