REJEIÇÃO RECORDE DE LULA, ASCENSÃO DE FLÁVIO E CENÁRIOS POLÍTICOS PARA 2026 | Market Makers #321

Episode Overview

• The "Election of No" vs. "Election of Yes": This episode explores how Brazilian politics has shifted from voting for preferred candidates to strategic voting based on rejection. The central thesis is that the candidate with the lowest rejection ceiling—not necessarily the highest popularity—has the advantage in a polarized environment.
• The Rise of Managerial Leadership: A significant generational shift is occurring where voters are moving away from pure ideological warriors (Left vs. Right) toward "technocratic managers" (like Tarcísio de Freitas and Ratinho Jr.) who deliver tangible economic results and public security.
• The "Centrão" as the Real Power Broker: The discussion frames the "Centrão" (a bloc of center-right parties) not as a temporary anomaly but as the permanent operating system of Brazilian governance that forces every President, regardless of ideology, to compromise or fail.
• Regional Economic Decoupling: The episode highlights the "Brazilian Jaguars"—states like Santa Catarina and Goiás that are growing at rates far exceeding the national average—and how their fiscal success is creating a new platform for national political leadership.

Key Concepts

• Rejection Rates Determine Elections: In modern polarized politics, polls showing voting intention are less important than rejection rates. Voters often cast ballots to block the candidate they hate rather than support the one they love. Therefore, a candidate's "ceiling" is defined by their rejection rate; whoever has the lower rejection ceiling often wins.
• The "Viability Threshold" (20% Rule): For a third-way candidate to break the polarization between two dominant figures (like Lula and Bolsonaro), they do not need to lead early polls. They simply need to reach a "viability threshold" of roughly 20% by September of the election year. Once they hit this mass, they trigger strategic voting from the electorate that rejects both extremes, potentially forcing a runoff where they become highly competitive.
• Political Loyalty vs. Survival: The episode contrasts the "traditional politician" (whose loyalty is only to their own survival) with newer figures like Tarcísio de Freitas (loyal to Bolsonaro). However, in the ruthless calculus of Brazilian politics, unwavering loyalty is often a strategic weakness. Successful politicians know exactly when to abandon an ally to avoid "going down together."
• The "Incumbency Curse": A global trend exacerbated by social media is that sitting leaders (incumbents) now struggle to get reelected (approx. 70% lose). Social media amplifies dissatisfaction and blames the current leader for all societal ills, meaning current power is no longer the electoral advantage it once was.
• The "Brazilian Jaguars": A group of states (SC, PR, MS, MT, GO) are identified as the "Brazilian Jaguars" (akin to Asian Tigers). These states have decoupled from the sluggish national economy due to strong fiscal management and agribusiness ties. Their success challenges the "Brasília Bubble" narrative and proves that competent management yields high approval ratings regardless of national ideological trends.
• Civil Society as the Engine of Reform: Using Espírito Santo as a case study, the podcast argues that profound political cleanup rarely comes from a "savior" politician. instead, it requires organized coalitions of businesses, churches, and NGOs to fund and protect reformist candidates against the "old guard."

Quotes

• At 0:07:48 - "Probably we will have, like in 2022, an election of the 'no', and not an election of the 'yes'. That is, part of the voters will not vote for the candidate they would like to vote for. They will vote for the candidate they reject less than the other." - Explaining the driving force behind polarization and voting behavior
• At 0:08:34 - "The history of this election... will begin to be counted for real when the voters start to get activated. And when do voters get activated? When the television program starts." - Highlighting that current polls are snapshots of name recognition, not final intent
• At 0:14:26 - "What is the biggest characteristic of a politician? It is not having commitment to others. It is having commitment to himself and his political career... The politician uses people as long as people are useful to him." - A candid definition of the pragmatism required for political survival
• At 0:17:15 - "One is loyal until the moment you have to commit suicide. Then you don't commit suicide... You have to abandon [the ally], because if you don't abandon, you go down together." - Explaining why political betrayals are structural necessities
• At 0:19:58 - "The Centrão rarely hasn't commanded the Congress... The Centrão has a logic: it sees which candidate might need it, and goes with that candidate. Sometimes even after the election." - Defining the Centrão as a permanent, pragmatic power broker
• At 0:24:00 - "O Centrão raramente não comanda o Congresso... raramente o Centrão não esteve comandando o Congresso." - Explaining that the Centrão isn't a temporary anomaly; it is the default operating system
• At 0:29:35 - "Nós temos uma mudança no país que eu acho que pouca gente percebe... Os novos governadores são todos na faixa de 50 anos, outra geração política. E é uma geração de governadores bem avaliados." - Highlighting a generational turnover where younger, management-focused leaders are replacing traditional figures
• At 0:30:30 - "A gente chama as 'Onças Brasileiras'. Os índices desses estados [são] muito acima da média do Brasil... com uma cabeça de trazer o bem-estar da população, trazer dinheiro pro estado, de investir." - Describing the high-performing states that are decoupling from Brazil's national average
• At 0:37:39 - "O terceiro candidato, ele precisa ficar viável até 10 de setembro. O que que é ficar viável? É ter intenção de voto suficiente para chamar a atenção do eleitor que não quer nenhum nem outro." - Explaining the mechanics of breaking a polarized election late in the race
• At 0:46:27 - "O eleitor aprendeu várias coisas... A segunda coisa que ele aprendeu: ele não precisa em janeiro decidir quem é o candidato que ele vai votar. Ele pode esperar os últimos 15 dias." - A crucial insight into modern voter behavior and delayed decision-making
• At 0:54:03 - "Se você tiver dois candidatos com 40 e 35... não vai ter ninguém perto de 20. Eu acho que esse candidato [da terceira via] tem que ter algo em torno de 20. Se ele tiver 20, os outros dois somados, na melhor das hipóteses, vão ter 60." - Explaining the mathematical path for a center candidate to force a runoff election
• At 0:55:23 - "A turma costuma dizer, e isso é verdade, o resultado de Minas é o resultado da eleição. Você tem Minas, Centro-Oeste, Sudeste... Ela tá ali cercada, é o centro do Brasil." - Highlighting the geopolitical importance of Minas Gerais as a microcosm of the electorate
• At 1:04:55 - "No mundo, se você olhar, depois do evento das redes sociais, os incumbentes, que são aqueles que estão no cargo, têm muita dificuldade de se reeleger. Me parece... 70% dos incumbentes perderam a reeleição." - Challenging the assumption that sitting leaders are favorites
• At 1:06:20 - "As redes sociais deram voz... a todo mundo. Então todo mundo fala. Você voltou a ter uma formação de opinião, só que agora a formação de opinião é diferente, está pulverizada." - Explaining why traditional political analysis often fails today due to decentralized influence
• At 1:19:53 - "O eleitor olha para Brasília e... a palavra é: tem nojo. Aquilo lá apodreceu... Ele olha para aquilo e diz: 'Pô, nós temos que mudar isso'." - Discussing the deep-seated anti-establishment sentiment fueling outsider narratives
• At 1:24:52 - "Se o Lula morre no processo, o Alckmin assume... Acabou o PT, amigo. Esse não tem fidelidade partidária com o PT... ele vai ter que fazer um acordo com o Centrão." - Explaining the existential risk of choosing a centrist VP
• At 1:29:28 - "A minha geração sonhou com um mundo melhor e vai entregar um mundo muito pior... A nova geração, de 55 para baixo, são gerações de bons políticos e de bons gestores." - Contrasting ideological dreamers of the past with today's pragmatic managers
• At 1:33:30 - "A ditadura possibilitou uma coisa que a democracia dificilmente vai possibilitar: que é você fazer planejamento de longo prazo." - Identifying a structural weakness in democratic systems regarding infrastructure planning
• At 1:36:00 - "Não tem bolha maior do que Brasília... O cara entra pensando 'o que eu faço pra me reeleger daqui a 4 anos?' A discussão fica longe dos problemas reais." - Defining the "principal-agent problem" in Brazilian politics
• At 1:43:40 - "A Aracruz procurou outros empresários... e 16 pessoas fundaram um negócio chamado Espírito Santo em Ação... resolveram que iam se envolver na política... bancaram a campanha." - Outlining the blueprint for how the private sector can legitimately influence governance

Takeaways

• Monitor Rejection Rates, Not Just Approval: When analyzing polls or political stability, pay closer attention to rejection numbers (rejeição). In a polarized environment, the candidate with the lower rejection ceiling is often the stronger bet, even if their initial support looks lower.
• Look for "The 20% Signal" in September: Ignore early polls for third-way candidates. The critical moment is late in the election cycle (September). If a centrist candidate hits ~20% then, they become a viable contender to disrupt the main polarization.
• Bet on "Managerial" Profiles Over Ideologues: The emerging trend in Brazil favors governors and leaders who focus on technical delivery (infrastructure, security) over culture wars. Political capital is shifting toward competence.
• Understand the "Voto de Legenda" (Party Ticket Vote): Recognize that strong executive candidates (Governors/Presidents) are strategic assets because they drag legislative deputies into office with them. This is why parties fight for popular names even if they don't win the executive seat—they boost the party's congressional footprint.
• Recognize Security as an Economic Issue: Do not treat public security as a separate social issue. For the average voter, theft (especially of cell phones) is a direct economic hit and a loss of banking access. Leaders who solve this "micro-economic" problem gain massive political capital.
• Watch the "Brazilian Jaguars": Pay attention to investment and political trends in Santa Catarina, Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, and Goiás. These states are operating on a different economic trajectory than the rest of Brazil.
• Don't Trust Early Polls: Modern voters delay decisions until the last 15 days because information is ubiquitous. Early polling is merely a measure of name recognition, not voting intent.
• Beware the Incumbency Trap: Do not assume a sitting President or Governor is safe. The global trend is heavily anti-incumbent due to social media amplification of dissatisfaction.
• Focus on Minas Gerais: Use the state of Minas Gerais as your bellwether. Geographically and culturally, it represents the synthesis of the Brazilian electorate; winning there usually signals winning the country.
• Organize Civil Society for Reform: If you want political change, do not wait for a savior. Follow the "Espírito Santo model" where business leaders and NGOs form coalitions to fund and protect reformist candidates.
• Evaluate Political Alliances by Loyalty Risks: Assess political stability by looking at the "loyalty cost." Alliances hold only as long as they serve mutual survival. Expect betrayals when an ally becomes a liability.
• Look Past the President to the "Machine": True power often lies with figures like Gilberto Kassab who control the "machine" (mayors and local deputies). The person occupying the presidency is often less powerful than the person controlling the legislative base.