QUEDA DE MADURO PODE DERRUBAR OS MERCADOS EM 2026? | Market Makers #308

Episode Overview

• This episode explores the seismic shift in the global economy from a "Just in Time" efficiency model to a "Just in Case" security model, driven by rising geopolitical tensions and the fragmentation of global trade into rival blocs.
• The discussion centers on the critical role of energy as the base of the "economic hierarchy of needs," arguing that controlling oil prices is the primary lever superpowers use to manage inflation and maintain stability.
• The speakers analyze the investment implications of this new world order, specifically focusing on the structural oversupply of oil, the "breaking" of gold's correlation with interest rates, and the debasement of fiat currency against hard assets.
• Key geopolitical risks are dissected, including a potential revival of the Monroe Doctrine in Latin America (specifically Venezuela) and the unpredictable nature of autocracies like Russia and China.
• The conversation concludes with practical advice on asset allocation in an inflationary environment and personal philosophies on health (Medicine 3.0) and decision-making.

Key Concepts

• The Shift from "Just in Time" to "Just in Case" The global economic order is transitioning away from maximum efficiency toward supply security. In a multipolar world, superpowers prioritize resilience over cost, leading to protectionism and strategic stockpiling. Nations are now securing resources within their own spheres of influence rather than relying on open global trade, fundamentally altering supply chain dynamics.

• Energy as the Base of the "Economic Hierarchy of Needs" Energy operates at the bottom of the global production hierarchy (referencing Maslow's hierarchy). Because energy is an input cost for almost every other good and service (transport, manufacturing, agriculture), a rise in oil prices acts as a universal tax that drives broad-based inflation. Conversely, securing cheap energy is the most effective way for a superpower to export deflation and stimulate economic growth.

• The "New" Monroe Doctrine and Pax Americana There is a suggested revival of the Monroe Doctrine, where the U.S. aggressively reasserts influence over the Western Hemisphere to secure strategic resources and exclude rival powers like China. This strategy views energy independence in the Americas—specifically rehabilitating Venezuelan heavy oil production using U.S. diluents and technology—as a critical matter of national security.

• The Breakdown of Gold's Historical Correlations Historically, gold prices moved inversely to U.S. real interest rates (rates up, gold down). This correlation has broken since 2022 due to two new drivers: geopolitical sanctions and currency debasement. Non-aligned Central Banks are buying gold to diversify away from the dollar (sovereign protection), while investors use it to hedge against "loose fiscal" policies that devalue fiat currency regardless of nominal interest rates.

• Currency Debasement vs. Real Assets The concept of a "weak dollar" is redefined not by comparing it to other fiat currencies (like the Euro), but by comparing it to real assets (Nasdaq, land, Bitcoin). Asset price inflation is often a symptom of the denominator (the dollar) losing value due to government deficits, rather than the asset simply becoming more historically valuable.

• The "Fujiwhara Effect" in Markets This concept describes the collision of two "super trends": Technological Deflation (AI/productivity) and Energy Abundance (mechanical revolutions in oil extraction). When combined, these forces create a powerful tailwind for disinflation and economic growth, provided geopolitical tensions do not disrupt the supply chains.

• Tail Risks in Autocracies A critical risk management concept is the unpredictability of autocracies. Unlike democracies, where decision-making is distributed, autocracies consolidate power in small groups. This makes "Black Swan" events (like invasions) nearly impossible to forecast using standard economic models because the incentives of a single leader may not align with economic rationality.

Quotes

• At 0:05:46 - "Geopolitical events normally don't happen as a surprise. You have signs that they are going to happen." - Explaining that military build-ups act as clear precursors to regime change, allowing markets to price in risks early.
• At 0:18:52 - "It is a change of regime from 'Just in Time' to 'Just in Case'... trying to translate to clear Portuguese: It's every man for himself." - Summarizing the breakdown of globalization into a fragmented, protectionist system.
• At 0:19:56 - "If this need for stock [inventory] pre-Trump was 'X' for any commodity, it passed to be a multiple of 'X'." - Explaining that in a fragmented world, countries must hold significantly higher physical inventories, structurally increasing demand.
• At 0:29:48 - "Energy is extremely important because it sits at the base of the Maslow hierarchy of the global productive chain. When oil goes up... the price of your shirt goes up, the price of food goes up, the price of this can goes up." - Illustrating why energy policy is the primary lever for controlling global inflation.
• At 0:31:12 - "In six months, the closed inflation forecast for the whole year in Brazil was revised down... almost 2% down. It wasn't 0.5%... Why? Oil in Reais fell." - Illustrating the direct and massive impact of falling energy prices on national inflation metrics.
• At 0:33:44 - "If you take heavy oil... it will be like grease, it will have great difficulty flowing. So this makes it need naphtha to dilute this oil... [Venezuela] stopped importing from the US in the past... and Russia started sending it." - Explaining the technical reality of why Venezuelan oil production collapsed without US partnership.
• At 0:35:54 - "There is a technological revolution of heavy mechanics... The advent of shale oil and gas... Everyone knew the oil was there, it was just hard to get. They managed, with heavy mechanics technology, to extract this energy." - Highlightng that the US energy boom is a technological achievement that fundamentally changed global supply structures.
• At 0:47:50 - "Today [Central Banks] buy 70 tons [of gold] per month... we almost multiplied by 10 the Central Bank demand." - Quantifying the massive shift in the gold market structure toward sovereign strategic accumulation.
• At 0:48:40 - "This correlation [between gold and interest rates] broke... it went to hell. Since 2022 mainly, this correlation is gone." - Explaining that traditional financial models for valuing gold no longer work because the buyers are not price-sensitive.
• At 0:58:22 - "If you have loose fiscal policy and you have loose monetary policy, you have a debasement of the currency." - Defining the macro environment that supports high asset prices despite high nominal interest rates.
• At 0:59:26 - "The dollar got weak against the Nasdaq. It wasn't the Nasdaq that went up, it was the dollar that lost value against the Nasdaq... against land... against Bitcoin." - Explaining that asset inflation is often a symptom of currency devaluation rather than intrinsic asset growth.
• At 1:00:58 - "It's the money found in the suit pocket when you go to the dry cleaners... which are the rare earths." - A metaphor for Brazil's overlooked strategic assets that add value unexpectedly.
• At 1:04:47 - "The will [to cut rates], we know exists... but perhaps there is an impossibility of doing so." - Highlightng the danger of investing based on what politicians want to happen versus what the economy allows to happen.
• At 1:07:13 - "When you have autocracies where the decision-making process passes through a small group... it is very difficult for you to predict what is going through their heads." - Why standard analysis fails when predicting geopolitical risks in non-democratic regimes.
• At 1:08:12 - "If you are not totally comfortable with that investment, you end up deciding to exit at the worst possible moment." - The core reason why investors must align philosophically with their fund managers or strategies.
• At 1:12:15 - "Nothing replaces common sense and generosity." - A guiding principle offered for both life and business relationships.

Takeaways

• Monitor Geopolitics for Inflation Signals: Recognize that inflation is no longer just a monetary phenomenon; it is driven by physical scarcity and geopolitical conflict. Watch for resolutions in conflicts (or lack thereof) as primary indicators for future inflation trends.
• Invest in "Hard Assets" to Counter Debasement: In an environment of "loose fiscal" policy, prioritize assets that cannot be printed (gold, land, Bitcoin) to protect purchasing power against currency debasement, rather than just chasing yield.
• Expect Structural Changes in Oil Markets: Be bearish on oil in the medium term due to U.S. technological efficiency (shale) and potential Venezuelan supply reintegration, which create a natural cap on prices and support disinflation.
• Re-evaluate Gold Strategy: Stop using real interest rates as the sole indicator for gold prices. Instead, track Central Bank buying patterns and geopolitical sanctions, which now create a price-insensitive floor for demand.
• Identify "Friend-Shoring" Beneficiaries: Look for investment opportunities in countries (like Brazil or Mexico) that benefit from the reorganization of supply chains into "friendly" blocs, particularly those rich in strategic resources like rare earth minerals.
• Beware of the "Impossibility" of Rate Cuts: Do not base investment theses solely on political promises of lower interest rates. Verify that economic data (growth and inflation) actually permits those cuts to avoid being caught on the wrong side of a market correction.
• Align with Your Investment Philosophy: Whether managing your own money or outsourcing it, ensure you fully understand and agree with the underlying philosophy. Without this conviction, you will likely panic-sell during inevitable drawdowns.
• Account for Autocracy Risk: When investing in or trading around assets controlled by autocracies, acknowledge that rational economic models may fail. Diversify to protect against unpredictable "Black Swan" decisions made by single leaders.
• Adopt "Medicine 3.0" Principles: Apply the same proactive risk management used in investing to personal health. Shift focus from treating illness after it occurs to preventing the "four horsemen" (heart disease, cancer, etc.) to extend healthspan.