ONDE INVESTIR EM 2026: BITCOIN, ETHEREUM ou SOLANA? | Crypto Never Sleeps #34

Episode Overview

• The podcast explores Bitcoin's predictable 4-year market cycle, arguing that it's driven by human psychology and that the current market phase represents a prime buying opportunity.
• It examines the maturation of the crypto market with the entry of institutional players, discussing how this decreases volatility and raises questions about the persistence of historical cycles versus a potential "supercycle."
• The conversation theorizes on the future of business in an AI-driven world, suggesting a polarization between models that sell "superpowers" to the ambitious and "dopamine" to the addicted.
• It also covers emerging trends in the crypto space, including decentralized physical infrastructure projects like Geodnet and Hivemapper, and the potential for record-breaking airdrops from platforms like Polymarket.

Key Concepts

• Future Business Models: In an era of cheap AI, businesses will likely diverge into two categories: selling empowering tools ("superpowers") or selling entertainment/addictive products ("dopamine"). The value of human creativity and taste will increase as raw intelligence becomes a commodity.
• Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle: The historically consistent pattern of Bitcoin's market cycles is primarily driven by the predictable pendulum of human emotions, from euphoria to despair, rather than purely technical factors.
• Market Maturation & Volatility: The entry of institutional investors, corporations, and sovereign funds is causing the crypto market to mature, which is evidenced by decreasing overall volatility.
• Retail vs. Institutional Influence: Despite the influx of institutional capital, retail investors are still believed to be the primary force setting prices on the margin.
• Invalidation Criteria for Market Theses: Defining a clear point to invalidate a market thesis (e.g., a bear market) is difficult. A new all-time high serves as a more definitive signal than arbitrary percentage-based drawdowns due to Bitcoin's inherent volatility.
• The "Supercycle" Theory: This is the idea that Bitcoin may eventually enter a new market phase characterized by less significant drawdowns and a more sustained, steady growth trajectory, breaking from the boom-and-bust cycles of the past.
• Decentralized Physical Infrastructure (DePIN): The emergence of blockchain-based networks that serve as alternatives to centralized services, such as Geodnet for GPS and Hivemapper for street-level mapping.
• Airdrops and Market Catalysts: The strategic distribution of tokens (airdrops) by new protocols, with specific anticipation for a potentially record-breaking event from Polymarket.

Quotes

• At 0:04 - "Só vão sobrar dois modelos de negócio: ou você vende superpoderes para os ambiciosos, ou dopamina para os viciados." - Felipe Sant Ana quotes a phrase to describe the future business landscape, distinguishing between tools that empower and products that entertain or addict.
• At 0:22 - "Se trata de ter boas ideias, de ter bom gosto, que é uma coisa que ainda é difícil de codificar, de explicar." - He elaborates on what becomes valuable when intelligence is cheap, highlighting creativity and taste as key human differentiators.
• At 1:11 - "É aquela história básica da, do pêndulo das emoções humanas..." - He attributes the predictable market cycles not to technical factors alone, but to the recurring patterns of human psychology and investor behavior.
• At 2:06 - "Não tenha pressa, mas aproveita pra comprar, que provavelmente vai ser o melhor ano do próximo ciclo pra comprar." - He gives his primary advice to investors for the coming year, suggesting a strategy of patient accumulation during the bear market.
• At 22:21 - "Mas eu tô disposto a mudar de opinião a qualquer momento." - The speaker emphasizes his flexible and non-dogmatic approach to market analysis and predictions.
• At 22:46 - "Uma máxima nova é um critério de invalidação." - The speaker proposes a clear, definitive signal that would disprove the continuation of a bear market: reaching a new all-time high.
• At 23:42 - "Não sei se esse negócio do ciclo de 4 anos segura, porque o mercado em si tá mudando." - A host questions the reliability of past cycles, arguing that the entry of new institutional players has fundamentally changed the market's structure.
• At 24:14 - "Meu caso base já é que caia menos." - The speaker states his core prediction that the maximum drawdown in the next bear cycle will be less severe than in previous ones due to market maturation.
• At 24:33 - "Na margem, quem faz preço ainda me parece que tá sendo cada vez menos o varejão, mas ainda é o varejão." - He explains that despite the entry of institutions, retail investors still have the most significant impact on setting Bitcoin's price.
• At 50:41 - "O Hivemapper, ele compete ou substitui o Google Street View." - Differentiating Hivemapper as a project focused on image-based mapping, similar to Google Street View.
• At 53:11 - "Uma das previsões é de que o da Polymarket, se fizer um airdrop, vai bater recorde." - Sharing a prediction from an upcoming report that the Polymarket airdrop could be the largest in history by value.
• At 56:24 - "O market cap chegar a um trilhão de dólares." - One of the hosts offers his bold prediction for the total market capitalization of stablecoins by 2026.
• At 58:00 - "É a ideia de que você não vai mais ter drawdown significativo no Bitcoin... vai cair muito pouco e vai subir devagar e sempre, pra sempre." - Defining the "supercycle" theory, which posits that Bitcoin's volatility will diminish, leading to sustained, steady growth without the massive crashes of previous cycles.

Takeaways

• To thrive in an AI-driven future, focus on developing uniquely human skills like creativity, strategic thinking, and good taste, which cannot be easily commoditized.
• Use the current crypto market downturn as a strategic opportunity for patient accumulation, as historical cycles suggest this is the optimal period to build positions for the next bull run.
• Avoid dogmatic thinking in your market analysis; be flexible and willing to change your thesis based on new, definitive evidence like the creation of a new all-time high.
• Expect future crypto market drawdowns to be less severe than in the past due to increasing institutional involvement and overall market maturation.
• When analyzing market trends, continue to monitor retail investor sentiment closely, as this segment still holds significant power in driving price movements.
• Base your market exit or entry signals on clear, macro trend changes rather than volatile, percentage-based drops, which can be misleading in the crypto market.
• Explore and invest in emerging crypto sectors with tangible, real-world use cases, such as Decentralized Physical Infrastructure (DePIN).
• Keep track of major airdrop events from promising protocols, as they can serve as both a source of capital and an indicator of projects gaining significant traction.