O LADO ASSUSTADOR DA TECNOLOGIA E COMO ELA ESTÁ MUDANDO O MUNDO | Market Makers #291

Episode Overview

• This episode explores Artificial Intelligence as a profound, non-niche disruption that is fundamentally reshaping investment, society, and the future of work.
• It advocates for a new investor mindset focused on creativity, optimism, and asking the right questions to navigate the current "training phase" of the AI revolution, rather than seeking premature answers.
• The conversation delves into the long-term societal shifts driven by AI, including its convergence with demographic decline and the subsequent rise of robotics as a necessary solution.
• The speaker argues that in an AI-dominated world, the most essential and enduring human function will shift from analytical tasks to creativity and, ultimately, the willingness to take risks.

Key Concepts

• AI as a Limitless Disruption: Unlike previous technologies with finite applications (like the internet or mobile phones), artificial intelligence has boundless potential, making it a powerful and permanent revolutionary force.
• The "Empire Strikes Back" Phase of Investing: The current market for AI is analogous to the difficult middle chapter of a story—a "training" period of high volatility and uncertainty where investors must learn to separate real value from hype.
• The Psychology of Bubbles & Optimism: A market "bubble" is often defined by one's perspective (a bull market one isn't participating in). Capitalism itself is fueled by optimists who take risks and persist through failure, a contrast to unproductive "Cassandra" pessimists.
• Demographic Decline as a Catalyst for Robotics: Shrinking global populations create a societal need that AI and robotics are poised to fill. AI will also accelerate this trend by increasing the educational investment (and cost) required for children to compete.
• Embodied AI as the Path to AGI: True Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) cannot be achieved by Large Language Models (LLMs) alone. AI needs to be "embodied" in robots to learn from physical, trial-and-error interaction with the real world, similar to how humans learn.
• The Future of Human Skill: As AI automates analytical and repetitive tasks, the most valuable human contributions will be creativity and, most fundamentally, the willingness to take risks with capital, ideas, and societal progress.
• Interconnected Global Markets: Increasing globalization has made all markets act like "one big trade," rendering traditional diversification less effective and forcing investors to embrace higher levels of risk.

Quotes

• At 0:09 - "Muitas vezes você ainda não tem respostas para dar, você tem perguntas." - Alves explains that the current stage of AI development is defined more by questions and uncertainty than by clear answers.
• At 0:35 - "Quanto teriam que te pagar para você não usar um modelo de inteligência artificial hoje?" - He poses a powerful question to illustrate the intrinsic and growing value of AI in daily professional life.
• At 1:02 - "O que é que vai sobrar para o ser humano fazer? E eu sempre falei a mesma resposta: tomar risco." - Alves gives his ultimate conclusion on the future of human work in an AI-dominated world.
• At 25:13 - "AI is the real thing. AI é a coisa real." - A definitive statement on his conviction about the importance and permanence of the artificial intelligence revolution.
• At 25:41 - "Eu não sei o limite da internet... eu sei o limite do celular... eu não sei o limite da inteligência." - Alves contrasts the finite potential of previous technologies with the boundless, unknown potential of AI.
• At 27:18 - "Você vai ter que ser mais criativo. Você vai ter que... quando eu digo criatividade, porque investimentos, as pessoas dizem que é disciplina. Sim, a longo prazo é disciplina. Mas investimento sem criatividade não existe." - He argues that in this new era, investors cannot rely solely on discipline; they must actively and creatively think about the future to succeed.
• At 29:54 - "Esse é o momento de treinamento do mercado. Esse é o momento que o mercado vai ver Yoda." - Using a Star Wars analogy, he describes the current phase of AI investing as the "training" part of the hero's journey.
• At 31:47 - "São essas nuances que a gente vai ter que ter. Quanto vale a nuvem num modelo de AI versus quanto vale a nuvem nos modelos corporativos que a gente tem até hoje?" - He emphasizes the importance of asking detailed, nuanced questions to differentiate between the various business models and opportunities emerging from the AI trend.
• At 55:17 - "Bolha é um bull market que você não participa, né?" - Ruy Alves provides his concise and memorable definition of a market bubble, framing it as a matter of perspective for those who missed out on a rally.
• At 55:46 - "E a verdade é que o capitalismo é criado por otimistas." - Alves states that the entire capitalist system is founded on the optimistic belief of entrepreneurs who risk capital for future gains.
• At 55:53 - "Várias coisas você tenta e poucas coisas dão certo. A maioria das coisas que a gente tenta dão errado e você tem que engolir aquilo que deu errado e tentar novamente... até dar certo." - He describes the difficult and iterative nature of entrepreneurship, highlighting that success is built on persisting through frequent failures.
• At 57:13 - "Que tal você sentar e estudar um pouco mais? Que tal você sentar e se dedicar um pouco mais às coisas que podem dar certo... ao invés de viver como uma Cassandra, reclamando da vida ou reclamando do mundo?" - Alves offers advice to those who are quick to label everything a bubble, encouraging them to study opportunities rather than complaining.
• At 58:29 - "O ser humano vai continuar tomando risco. Ele vai arriscar capital, ele vai arriscar para um ganho maior, ele vai arriscar para uma melhor sociedade." - He expands on the idea that taking risks—whether financial or societal—is a fundamental and enduring aspect of human progress.
• At 85:50 - "Demografia declinante é uma coisa impressionante, né? Porque depois que você passa de um tipping point... a sua sociedade entra muito rápido em declínio demográfico." - The speaker explains that once a population's reproductive base shrinks past a certain point, the demographic decline accelerates and becomes extremely difficult to reverse.
• At 87:27 - "Com a inteligência artificial, o que que vai acontecer? Vai custar ainda mais caro. Porque o tempo que você vai ter que 'nurture' essa criança... vai ser maior, porque os entry job levels vão ser tomados pela inteligência artificial." - He argues that AI will increase the cost of raising children, as they will need more extensive education to compete for jobs.
• At 91:33 - "Você nunca vai chegar em inteligência artificial geral a partir de modelos de LLM. Você vai ter que ensinar o modelo da mesma maneira que você ensina um ser humano." - Citing an AI pioneer, he states that current large language models are not the path to true AGI; instead, AI needs to learn through physical interaction.
• At 93:33 - "Você tem que 'embody' a AI. Você tem que colocar um corpo na AI. E corpo na AI nada mais é do que robótica." - He explains that the next frontier for AI is giving it a physical body (robotics) to allow it to learn from real-world experiences.
• At 97:56 - "Vai ter uma hora que essas linhas se cruzam. Vai ter uma hora que a produtividade desses robôs vai ser maior do que você contratar a força humana..." - He predicts a future where robots will become more economical than human labor, even for non-repetitive tasks.
• At 113:25 - "Quais são as duas coisas que o dinheiro é fundamental? ...Eu meço em educação para os filhos e eu meço em saúde." - In a final Q&A, he identifies providing education for his children and ensuring access to healthcare as the two most essential roles of money.
• At 114:15 - "Quer me ver triste, cara? Me faz irrelevante. Aí eu fico muito triste, velho." - When asked what legacy he wants to leave, he explains that his sense of purpose comes from feeling relevant and useful.

Takeaways

• Prioritize asking insightful questions about AI business models and future applications over searching for definitive answers in this nascent stage.
• Embrace market volatility as a natural, expected part of a technological revolution, viewing it as an opportunity rather than a threat.
• Cultivate creativity in your investment process; rigid discipline alone is not enough to successfully navigate profound technological disruptions.
• Recognize that the most durable human advantage in the age of AI will be the capacity for risk-taking, a trait machines cannot replicate.
• Instead of dismissing market rallies as "bubbles," dedicate time to studying the underlying fundamentals to avoid missing major technological shifts.
• Adopt an optimistic, entrepreneurial mindset, understanding that progress and long-term returns are built by those who persist through frequent failures.
• Prepare for a future where labor shortages from demographic decline will be addressed by the widespread adoption of robotics and embodied AI.
• Look beyond the hype of current LLMs to the next frontier of AI, which will be its integration with robotics to interact with and learn from the physical world.
• Accept that higher market risk and greater uncertainty are the new normal in a globally interconnected, technology-driven economy.
• Consider the second-order societal effects of AI, such as its impact on the cost of raising children and the future structure of the job market.
• Frame your investment journey with a long-term narrative, like the "Hero's Journey," to maintain perspective during difficult "training" phases.
• Define the purpose of wealth for yourself by focusing on fundamental human needs like education and health, providing a stable anchor in volatile times.