“Not as appalling as JD Vance” | Rory and Alastair React to Munich Security Conference

Episode Overview

• Explores the fundamental shift in US foreign policy, arguing that the "Liberal Global Order" is now viewed by American conservatives as a liability rather than an asset.
• Examines the dangerous disconnect in European diplomacy, where leaders are comforted by polite rhetoric (Marco Rubio) while ignoring the isolationist substance that mirrors radical "America First" policies.
• Proposes a new geopolitical framework—a "Rectangular World"—urging middle powers like the UK, EU, Japan, and Canada to band together for survival independent of the US and China.
• Discusses the critical concept of "Tech Sovereignty," highlighting how reliance on American tech giants for AI and cloud infrastructure poses a national security threat equal to military weakness.

Key Concepts

• The Shift to "Post-Liberal" Foreign Policy The central argument is that the US Republican establishment (represented by Marco Rubio) has philosophically aligned with JD Vance’s isolationism. This isn't just about burden-sharing; it is a rejection of the post-WWII consensus. The new view holds that international institutions (NATO, UN) actively harm US interests by exporting jobs and eroding sovereignty. Understanding this shift is crucial because it suggests American disengagement is structural and permanent, not just a temporary Trump-era anomaly.

• Civilizational Erasure & National Security US foreign policy rhetoric is increasingly adopting the language of domestic culture wars. The concept of "civilizational erasure"—the belief that liberal democracy and open borders are destroying Western civilization—is moving from political rallies into serious diplomatic strategy. This reframes allies as potential ideological threats if they support "dilution," pushing the US to align more with populist leaders like Orbán rather than traditional democratic partners.

• The Danger of "Polite Trumpism" A major cognitive dissonance exists among European leaders who felt relieved by Marco Rubio’s speech because it referenced Shakespeare and Da Vinci. The episode explains that while the tone was diplomatic, the substance remained hostile to the Atlantic alliance. This "illusion of continuity" is dangerous because it encourages Europe to delay necessary preparations for a world without US security guarantees.

• Tech Sovereignty as the New Defense Frontier Geopolitical power is now wielded through private technology platforms. The podcast highlights that European nations lack "tech sovereignty," relying entirely on US giants (Google, Microsoft) whose individual investment budgets dwarf national defense spending. True security now requires independent control over AI, cloud computing, and critical minerals, not just tanks and missiles.

• The "Rectangular World" Strategy To survive a bipolar US-China conflict, Rory Stewart proposes a "rectangular" power structure. Instead of choosing sides, a consolidated bloc of "Middle Powers" (UK, EU, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Australia) must unify. This group possesses the combined economic weight and technical capacity to act as an independent third pillar, but currently lacks the political coordination to do so.

Quotes

• At 4:40 - "We've increasingly outsourced our sovereignty to international institutions... The things that America created since 1945—the UN, NATO—are actually impacts on US sovereignty. They don't give it its full freedom." - Rory Stewart summarizing the core argument that international alliances are now viewed by the US right as liabilities to freedom.

• At 11:13 - "France is spending 20 billion on tech and that sounds like a lot, but Google and the other tech companies will be spending over 300 billion next year alone on the next stage of their tech investment in AI." - Rory Stewart highlighting the insurmountable financial gap between European nation-states and American private tech corporations.

• At 14:13 - "It really felt like it was signaling... that this was a rupture rather than a transition." - Alastair Campbell referencing the JD Vance speech, marking the moment the US signaled a potential end to its traditional role in European security.

• At 21:58 - "The US National Security Strategy... is talking about civilizational erasure in Europe. It's talking about putting its energy behind the populist far-right in Europe. It's talking about us not being democracies." - Rory Stewart exposing the severity of the ideological split where the US views European political models as adversarial.

• At 24:43 - "They are trying to buy time. This speech is about building up our defenses in incredibly difficult political circumstances... at some point in the near future, we are going to have to increase defense spending massively." - Alastair Campbell explaining the logic behind cautious political speeches: leaders are preparing for a wartime economy without terrifying the public prematurely.

• At 29:30 - "Let's say it’s a rectangular world where the four corners are: US, China, Global South... and Europe, UK, Canada, Japan, South Korea. Put them all together, you've got enormous economies... independent sovereign control of critical minerals, quantum, AI, cloud computing, satellite..." - Rory Stewart outlining the specific requirements for US allies to survive if America abandons its role as global policeman.

Takeaways

• Prepare for Structural Rupture, Not Just Political Transition Stop viewing US foreign policy shifts as temporary political cycles dependent on who is President. Organizations and governments should plan for a long-term future where the US is absent from or hostile to traditional international institutions. Building capacity independent of US support is now a necessity, not a contingency.

• Prioritize Digital Independence Treat technology infrastructure (cloud, AI, data) as a critical national security asset. Dependence on foreign private companies for core infrastructure creates a vulnerability where services can be deactivated due to external domestic politics. Policy and investment must focus on achieving sovereign control over these digital backbones.

• Forge Alliances Beyond the US-China Binary Nations and organizations outside the two superpowers should stop waiting for US leadership. Actively build lateral alliances with other "Middle Powers" (e.g., UK-Japan, EU-Canada) to create a unified economic and technological bloc capable of standing alone. Focus on shared resources in critical minerals and computing power to build leverage.