JUROS, ELEIÇÕES E BOLSA: O QUE ESPERAR PARA 2026? | Market Makers #304

Episode Overview

• This episode analyzes the Brazilian equity market, identifying it as a field of asymmetric opportunities where extreme pessimism has created attractive valuations for resilient companies.
• The discussion covers a bottom-up investment philosophy, illustrated through specific theses on companies like B3, Vivara, Grupo Mateus, and Enjoei, each chosen for its unique competitive advantages and risk-reward profile.
• The conversation emphasizes the importance of a disciplined process, long-term patience, and continuous self-improvement, highlighting the use of AI for post-mortem analysis and the invaluable wisdom gained from experienced mentors.
• It explores the cyclical nature of talent in the financial industry and the psychological challenges of investing, concluding that the biggest risk for investors today may be selling too early and missing a potential recovery.

Key Concepts

• Asymmetric Market Opportunity: The current Brazilian market is characterized by a restricted supply of shares (due to buybacks and delistings) and depressed demand, creating investment profiles with limited downside and significant upside potential.
• Pessimism Priced In: Many assets, such as B3, are valued as if the current economic stagnation ("marasmo ad aeternum") will last forever, offering a "call option" on any potential recovery.
• "Medieval" Interest Rates: Brazil's historically high interest rates have created a challenging environment, but have also forced surviving companies to become highly efficient and resilient.
• Bottom-Up Investment Philosophy: The strategy discussed is not based on top-down sector allocation but on a deep analysis of individual companies to find favorable risk-reward scenarios.
• Talent Cycle in Finance: The financial market faces a talent drain to the "real economy" during bear markets, a trend that typically reverses when a bull market begins.
• AI for Self-Improvement: Artificial intelligence is used not just for efficiency, but as a tool for rigorous "post-mortem" analysis of past investments to identify behavioral biases and become a better investor.
• Value of Mentorship: The discussion highlights the irreplaceable value of learning from experienced mentors who have navigated decades of economic turmoil, providing insights that technology cannot replicate.
• Specific Investment Theses:
  • Vivara: A business with strong competitive advantages derived from its 100% verticalized model, controlling its entire value chain.
  • Grupo Mateus: A company with formidable regional dominance in the Northeast, driven by its founder's execution capabilities.
  • Enjoei (ENJU3): A controversial "special situation" play, trading below its net cash value after restructuring its operations.
  • Cielo: An example of long-term patience, where the firm monitored the company for seven years before reinvesting when conditions were favorable.

Quotes

• At 0:00 - "2026 para o Brasil vai ser um ano difícil." - Paulo Abreu gives his initial outlook on the challenges facing Brazil in the near future.
• At 0:08 - "A gente tá correndo risco que a gente não sabe que tá correndo." - He speaks on the nature of unpredictable "black swan" events that investors face without realizing it.
• At 0:47 - "A gente tá nos juros literalmente medievais." - He uses a stark analogy to describe the historically high level of interest rates in Brazil.
• At 1:02 - "E quem sobreviveu, fez o dever de casa, tá mais eficiente." - He highlights the positive outcome for companies that have endured the tough economic environment, emerging stronger.
• At 25:46 - "A oferta para equity está muito restrita." - Explaining that the number of available shares in the market has decreased due to buybacks, M&A, and companies delisting.
• At 26:30 - "Pra gente, meio que está se perpetuando um marasmo ad aeternum ali de investidor de equity no Brasil." - Explaining the extremely pessimistic scenario that he believes is already priced into the valuation of B3.
• At 27:11 - "O seu ganho, seu lucro por ação, cresceu muito. E a empresa foi muito contracíclica nisso." - Defending B3's capital allocation strategy, noting that its share buybacks created significant value for shareholders.
• At 28:11 - "É uma perda razoavelmente limitada, não é que não tenha perda, claro que tem... para um upside que está te remunerando muito para isso." - Framing the investment in B3 as a call option with an asymmetric risk-reward profile.
• At 33:03 - "Que país sustenta com juro real acima de 7 para o infinito?" - Questioning the long-term sustainability of the high-interest-rate environment in Brazil.
• At 35:57 - "Vender cedo demais." - Identifying what he believes is the biggest risk for investors in the current market: underestimating the potential for a significant improvement.
• At 57:25 - "O quanto que tá difícil... preencher essa cadeira pelo fato de ser difícil justificar também que investir em ações é um negócio que dá certo no longo prazo, né?" - A host questions how hard it is to attract new talent to the stock market.
• At 58:56 - "Você vê o movimento contrário quando o bull market começa, né? Então você começa gente saindo do setor real querendo virar investidor." - Paulo comments on the cyclical nature of attracting talent to the financial market.
• At 1:04:47 - "É uma empresa que ela... ela é 100% verticalizada, né? Então ela compra a pedra, ela faz o design da pedra... ela tem o ponto de venda..." - A host details Vivara's business model and its complete control over the value chain.
• At 1:14:15 - "O Ilson Mateus, ele é o Neymar, ele é o Neymar do Nordeste. Aonde ele chega, ele domina." - A host shares an anecdote about the formidable reputation of Grupo Mateus's founder.
• At 1:17:45 - "O AI não é uma coisa que é só para aumentar a eficiência... Cara, é para te deixar melhor. Como é que você vai fazer aquilo dali te deixar um investidor melhor?" - Paulo explains that the primary use of AI at Mantaro is for self-reflection and improving decision-making.
• At 89:38 - "Os dois grandes professores que eu tenho no mercado, pra mim foi o D'Oro Felman e o Dudu." - Paulo Abreu sharing who his biggest mentors in the financial market were.
• At 94:38 - "A empresa ela tem, ela vale hoje na bolsa R$ 200 milhões de market cap, e ela tem no caixa dela R$ 250 milhões após a venda da Cresci Perdi." - Mateus Azevedo explaining the significant valuation disconnect for Enjoei, which is trading for less than the cash it holds.
• At 102:21 - "Cielo, a gente ficou de... 2015 até 2022 desinvestido, cara. E acompanhando." - Paulo Abreu illustrates Mantaro's long-term process and patience, waiting seven years to reinvest in a company.
• At 105:54 - "Você fazer gestão é você estar constantemente frustrado." - Paulo Abreu quoting his mentor on the psychological reality of being an asset manager.
• At 122:15 - "As maiores gentilezas que a gente viu vieram de enfermeiros... E a importância daquilo dali é desproporcional em relação a muitas coisas muito maiores que já me fizeram." - Paulo Abreu sharing a personal story about the most meaningful kindness he received.

Takeaways

• Prepare for significant volatility in Brazil around 2026, driven by the dual forces of the interest rate cycle and the presidential election.
• Seek out investment opportunities where the market has priced in an overly pessimistic scenario, creating an asymmetric profile with limited downside and high upside.
• The biggest mistake in the current market may be underestimating a recovery and selling positions too early, thereby missing out on potential gains.
• Prioritize investing in companies that have proven their resilience and efficiency by surviving the harsh, high-interest-rate environment.
• Focus on bottom-up company analysis rather than broad sector bets, looking for unique competitive advantages like Vivara's vertical integration or Grupo Mateus's regional dominance.
• Cultivate patience as a core investment discipline; be willing to monitor a company for years without investing, waiting for the right conditions to emerge.
• Implement a structured "post-mortem" process to systematically review all investment decisions, using tools to identify biases and continuously improve your approach.
• Seek out mentors with decades of market experience, as their practical wisdom gained from navigating past crises offers invaluable, non-replicable learning.
• Pay attention to special situations where a company's market valuation is disconnected from its tangible assets, such as trading below its net cash position.
• Recognize that the flow of talent in finance is cyclical; difficult periods can be an opportunity for those who remain committed to the long term.
• Value counter-cyclical capital allocation, such as share buybacks during periods of low valuation, as it can create significant per-share value for long-term holders.
• Accept that frustration is an inherent part of asset management; maintain focus on a consistent process and long-term improvement rather than short-term market noise.