Is Donald Trump Losing the Election on Purpose? (w/ David Axelrod)

Episode Overview

• Host Jon Favreau (Crooked Media) and guest David Axelrod (Founder of the University of Chicago Institute of Politics, CNN Chief Political Analyst, and host of Hacks on Tap) analyze the final weeks of the 2026 midterm elections under an unpopular Trump administration, drawing on their nearly decade-long partnership working for Barack Obama.
• The conversation examines why the national political environment has deteriorated for Republicans—comparing it to the 2010 wave against Democrats—and how Trump’s war in Iran and trade tariffs on Canada undermined the GOP's initial midterm strategy.
• Favreau and Axelrod break down debate clips and closing strategies in four critical U.S. Senate races: Michigan (Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers), Maine (Troy Jackson vs. Sen. Susan Collins), Texas (James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton), and Georgia (Sen. Jon Ossoff vs. Mike Collins).
• The episode explores emerging populist economic themes, specifically how voters feel they are losing personal agency to Big Tech, AI, and data center utility costs, alongside the failure to pass the bipartisan Kids Online Safety Act.
• Finally, the hosts look ahead to the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, evaluating potential contenders (including Jon Ossoff, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rahm Emanuel, Pete Buttigieg, and Gavin Newsom) and arguing why promising to simply restore the pre-Trump status quo is a losing message.

Key Concepts

• The Illusion of Static Red States and Polling Overcorrections: States like Iowa and Ohio are currently measured as 13-point Republican states because of Trump's previous margin of victory. However, Axelrod explains that a portion of that 13% consisted of voters who disliked Trump and only voted for him because they were upset with Biden and Harris over the economy. Furthermore, Axelrod hedges that pollsters may be adjusting their models too favorably for Republicans to offset "non-responding" or "hidden" Republican voters—a phenomenon that previously only occurred when Trump himself was on the ballot—meaning close races could tip the other way.
• Why the GOP’s 2026 Midterm Strategy Collapsed: At the start of the year at Arizona State University, Republican strategists Chris LaCivita and Tony Fabrizio told Axelrod their three-part midterm plan: vastly outspend Democrats, make "lefties" like Mamdani the face of the Democratic Party (alongside immigration, taxes, and crime), and rely on front-loaded tax cuts in their "big beautiful bill" to make people feel better about the economy by the fall. This failed because Trump started embracing Mamdani (ruining him as a target), and Trump declared war on Iran and imposed "Liberation Day" trade tariffs on Canada, which severely punished red agricultural states like Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska by driving up costs, especially for diesel.
• The "Bidenomics" Trap of Economic Jawboning: In the summer of 2023, Joe Biden toured the country touting "Bidenomics," which Axelrod calls the worst branding mistake since New Coke. Trump is now repeating the exact same mistake by trying to jawbone voters into feeling the economy is good when their daily lives and expenses tell them otherwise. Axelrod notes that Trump is more unpopular going into a midterm than any president since Harry Truman, and the House of Representatives is already "gone" for Republicans, leaving only a question of the margin.
• Michigan Senate Race Dynamics & Identity Fearmongering: In Michigan, where Trump is more than 20 points underwater in approval, Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed (whom Axelrod discloses was a fellow at the IOP he founded) faces Republican Mike Rogers. In debate footage, Rogers claims El-Sayed's mother worked at an organization indicted for funneling money to Al-Qaeda, while El-Sayed attacks Rogers over a $2.5 million Florida house and owning two yachts (which Rogers denies). Axelrod notes focus group research where participants say they "don't like the way Abdul looks," indicating Republicans will spend the final three weeks trying to scare voters into viewing the former football team captain/quarterback as a closeted terrorist. Meanwhile, Barack Obama is traveling to Detroit to campaign with El-Sayed and gubernatorial candidate Jocelyn Benson, noting that El-Sayed's platform of healthcare for everyone, a higher minimum wage, and putting money in people's pockets "sounds pretty good to me."
• Voter Agency, AI Data Centers, and Big Tech Lobbying: A defining issue of the era is voters feeling they are losing agency and that AI and data centers—which bring specific utility and community costs—are being "inflicted on them." As an example of tech power over agency, Axelrod points to 2024, when the U.S. Senate passed the Kids Online Safety Act with 93 votes, only for House Speaker Mike Johnson to never call it for a vote because he knew it would pass and Mark Zuckerberg spent "tens and tens and tens of millions of dollars" lobbying against it.
• Maine Senate Dynamics & The Risk of Overreaching Attacks: In Maine, working-class Democrat Troy Jackson (who worked 80 hours a week as a logger but currently has the highest unfavorables of any Democratic Senate candidate in a competitive race) attacked Sen. Susan Collins during a debate by claiming she and her husband are making money off the war in Iran via oil and military defense contractor stocks. Both Axelrod and Favreau agree this was a "bad hit" that watered down Jackson's argument because persuadable Maine voters do not believe Collins is motivated by corrupt financial purposes. By contrast, Jackson was much more effective when pointing out that Collins—who originally voted against the Affordable Care Act before casting the deciding vote to save it, and who broke her 1996 pledge to serve "two terms and two terms only" after supposedly discovering seniority was important despite working on Senate subcommittee staffs for 6 years prior—allowed the "big beautiful bill" to reach the floor as Appropriations Chair, and when goading her into defending her lifelong government healthcare by claiming she was uninsured for a few months while running for Governor in 1994 (roughly 30 years ago).
• Texas Senate Dynamics & The Third-Party Protest Threshold: In Texas, Democrat James Talarico is running against Republican Ken Paxton, whom the hosts describe as a "mess" and possibly the worst GOP candidate of the cycle. While Axelrod hedges that Texas has broken Democrats' hearts many times, he explains Talarico is benefiting from a "snapback" among working-class and small-business Hispanic voters hurt by the economy and targeted by ICE simply for being Hispanic. Axelrod predicts a large Republican "undervote" (skipping the Senate race) and projects that the Libertarian candidate—who got 2.4% in the last Texas Senate race—will do even better this time, lowering Talarico's required win threshold below 50%.
• Georgia’s 2028 Catch-22 for Jon Ossoff: Axelrod predicts Sen. Jon Ossoff will defeat Republican Mike Collins by "more than a few" points, triggering a "stampede" to Atlanta to recruit Ossoff for president in 2028. However, while Ossoff is a star in debates and speeches, Axelrod hedges that he has never seen Ossoff smile and doesn't know how he performs in casual, basic conversation. Furthermore, if Democrats only win a 51-seat Senate majority—assuming Sen. John Fetterman doesn't flee the party, which Axelrod hedges seems "a little bit more likely than not these days"—Ossoff running in 2028 is complicated by Georgia law, where the Governor appoints a Senate replacement until a special election (which Axelrod thinks comes two years later). Because Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms is running neck-and-neck for Governor against Republican Rick Jackson, a GOP gubernatorial win would trap Ossoff in the Senate to protect the majority.
• The 2028 Presidential Field & AOC's Calculus: Looking toward a primary Axelrod says he has been waiting for since 2023, the hosts identify Ossoff, Rahm Emanuel, Pete Buttigieg, Gavin Newsom, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) as politicians adept at drawing attention in the modern media environment. Reflecting on his IOP interview with AOC and Shane Goldmacher's New York Times piece, Axelrod notes that AOC is 36 years old, has publicly stated she wants to have children, and does not want to run a "pyrrhic race" (she only wants to run if she can win), though she did tell a New York fundraiser that if El-Sayed wins Michigan, "it means anyone can win anywhere." While hedging that he doesn't know for sure what AOC or Sen. Chuck Schumer will do, Axelrod suspects Schumer will not run for re-election, leaving the New York Senate seat open for her.
• Sponsored Clinical Data & Disclosures: During commercial breaks, the hosts promote Crooked Media's own event, Crooked Con 2026 (November 5–7, 2026, in Washington, D.C., featuring 24 conversations across 4 stages after drawing 2,500 attendees last year), alongside paid sponsors Bilt (~120 brands, 50,000+ partners), SelectQuote (nearly 40 years in business, over 2 million customers, 15-minute coverage process), BetterHelp (over 125 health plan networks, $23 average copay with insurance, 10% off first month without), and Buoy electrolytes (2-ounce bottles with 87 ionic trace minerals equivalent to 13 sports drinks at a dose of one squeeze). In the Buoy read, Favreau and an unidentified co-host cite a university-led clinical trial published in the journal Nutrients (sample size not stated) claiming the drops are clinically proven to hydrate 64% more than water alone and 49% more than a leading electrolyte.

Quotes

• At 3:13 - "I'm not saying that Donald Trump is trying to lose the election for Republicans, but if he were trying, he would not do anything differently than he's doing." - David Axelrod explaining how Trump's policies, tariffs, and rhetoric are actively sabotaging Republican midterm prospects.
• At 8:45 - "Toured the country in the summer of 2023 talking about the wonders of Bidenomics, the worst branding mistake since New Coke." - David Axelrod comparing Trump's current attempts to convince voters the economy is strong to Joe Biden's failed 2023 economic messaging.
• At 9:29 - "It turns out that the cash register's a better storyteller than us. The gas pump is a better storyteller than us." - David Axelrod illustrating why political spin cannot overcome voters' lived experiences with inflation and daily costs.
• At 12:00 - "He wants to make this about him or me. But the question is about you. Can you afford your gas? Can you afford your groceries? Under this guy, who's going to rubber-stamp everything Donald Trump tells him to rubber-stamp, you're going to continue to pay way more out the nose because he works for corporations and Donald Trump." - Abdul El-Sayed in a Michigan Senate debate clip, demonstrating how to pivot away from personal attacks back to kitchen-table economic issues.
• At 21:51 - "One of the great, I think, issues of our time are whether we, you know, whether we're going to regain control of our own lives, and whether the algorithms run our lives or whether we run the algorithms." - David Axelrod framing the core populist anxiety surrounding Big Tech, artificial intelligence, and the loss of personal agency.
• At 32:47 - "That's me. I feel that way too. I don't have to hate Susan Collins not to vote for her." - David Axelrod explaining the mindset of persuadable Maine voters and why offering a respectful "permission structure" is essential to defeating an entrenched incumbent.
• At 37:52 - "And that's the problem, Mike, it's not just that you've hired half the Third Reich to staff your congressional office and you have promoted neo-Nazi content online, it's that you're robbing your constituents to subsidize your donors. I want to know if you will commit to voting to repeal that data center tax scam that you voted for. Let's hear an answer." - Sen. Jon Ossoff in a Georgia debate clip, tying his opponent's cultural extremism directly to economic corruption and local data center utility subsidies.
• At 50:38 - "I've always said authenticity is a coin of the realm in presidential races, so it's good to be viral, it's also good not to look like you're kind of full of shit." - David Axelrod cautioning 2028 presidential hopefuls that chasing social media attention cannot come at the expense of genuine authenticity.
• At 56:11 - "So to say we're just going to restore everything that he destroyed and we're just going to put everything back the way they were is a losing argument, and it's a bad argument, it's the wrong argument." - David Axelrod warning Democrats against running a restoration campaign in 2028, noting that voters elected Trump precisely because they were dissatisfied with the old status quo.

Takeaways

• Use the "Permission Structure / Gold Watch" Strategy Against Liked Incumbents: When campaigning against a long-serving incumbent whom voters personally respect (like Susan Collins), do not accuse them of personal corruption or demonize them. Instead, thank them for their past service and frame the election around the need for a change in direction today, giving past supporters permission to vote against the incumbent without admitting they were wrong to support them previously.
• Pivot Relentlessly from Personal "Food Fights" to Voter Costs: When opponents launch identity-based fearmongering or personal smears (such as the attacks against Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan), avoid getting bogged down in defensive exchanges that alienate undecided voters. Immediately redirect the conversation back to the voter's own wallet—specifically grocery, gas, and healthcare costs.
• Tie Cultural Attacks Directly to Economic Self-Dealing: Follow Jon Ossoff’s debate model by linking an opponent's extreme rhetoric or staffing scandals directly to tangible financial harm inflicted on constituents—such as voting for tax giveaways for data center developers that drive up local utility bills.
• Stop "Jawboning" Voters About Macro-Economic Success: Never tell voters the economy is doing well when they are experiencing high prices at the cash register and gas pump. Acknowledge their economic pain directly and focus on specific policies that lower their daily cost of living and restore their sense of personal agency.
• Campaign on Reform and Building Ahead, Not "Restoration": When crafting messaging for 2028, do not promise to simply rebuild or restore every institution Trump dismantled—especially since Axelrod notes some torn-down systems may not have been working as well as they should anyway. Frame the platform around building new, responsive systems that address the underlying frustrations that caused voters to reject the status quo in the first place.