Forecast 2026

Episode Overview

• The hosts present and debate a series of bold geopolitical and economic forecasts for the year 2026.
• Key discussions revolve around global trade dynamics, with conflicting predictions on whether deglobalization will peak or US-China tensions will escalate.
• The episode explores the resolution of major global issues, including the end of the war in Ukraine and the normalization of European energy markets.
• The conversation also covers the shifting geopolitical landscape, forecasting major regime changes in Latin America and the declining global relevance of the Middle East.
• Finally, the hosts look ahead to new market trends, predicting that robotics will emerge as the next major investment narrative after the AI boom.

Key Concepts

• Peak Deglobalization vs. US-China Tensions: A central debate on whether the trend of rising tariffs will reverse by 2026 or if the US will solidify its North American trade bloc (USMCA) and intensify economic pressure on China.
• End of Major Conflicts and Aftermath: The forecast that the Ukraine war will end by 2026, which will in turn trigger a new phase of internal political instability within Russia.
• European Energy Normalization: The prediction that Europe's energy crisis will resolve by 2026, driven by a global glut in LNG supply and debunking the narrative of German de-industrialization.
• Latin American Upheaval: A specific forecast for the downfall of the regimes in Venezuela and Cuba in 2026.
• Diminishing Relevance of the Middle East: The contrarian view that conflicts in the Middle East will no longer have a significant impact on global markets due to US energy independence.
• EU-India Free Trade Agreement: A prediction that strategic incentives, particularly supply chain diversification away from China, will finally lead to a free-trade deal between the EU and India.
• The "Year of Robotics": The idea that robotics will become the next major market narrative in 2026, succeeding AI as a solution to address persistent labor shortages.

Quotes

• At 2:04 - "I would say that we reached peak deglobalization hysteria in 2025." - Marko Papic states his core thesis that the global trend toward trade protectionism is set to reverse.
• At 3:49 - "I expect a doubling down on US tariffs on China." - Jacob Shapiro offers a counter-forecast, arguing that after securing the USMCA trade deal, the US will intensify its economic pressure on China.
• At 4:03 - "I predict the downfall of the Venezuelan and Cuban regimes in the year of our Lord 2026." - Jacob Shapiro makes a bold prediction about significant regime change in two key Latin American countries.
• At 4:19 - "My forecast was the Ukraine war ends in 2026, but the battle for the soul of Russia begins." - Marko Papic predicts that the conclusion of the war will lead to significant internal political turmoil in Russia.
• At 11:21 - "What happens in the Middle East stays in the Middle East. It's irrelevant... Don't worry about it, it's fine." - Marko Papic delivers a stark forecast that conflicts in the Middle East will no longer have a significant impact on global markets.
• At 23:33 - "except for the private equity part. Like, hell no." - In a moment of emphatic advice, a speaker strongly warns against investing in private equity.
• At 25:50 - "I think this whole narrative and myth about the de-industrialization of German supply chains and Eastern Europe and Central Europe, that goes away this year." - The speaker predicts that normalizing energy prices will put an end to fears about Europe's industrial decline.
• At 39:51 - "I think they both have strategic incentives. I think the EU is looking for supply chain diversification away from China, and India is a really good place to do it." - The speaker explains the rationale behind his prediction that the EU and India will sign a free trade agreement in 2026.
• At 45:10 - "I'm playing with this idea that 2026 is the year of robotics... every year we've had a fad, basically. Like the market just needs these cheap calories to keep rolling." - The speaker introduces his forecast that robotics will become the next major market narrative after the AI boom.

Takeaways

• Re-evaluate investment opportunities in European industrials, as the normalization of energy prices suggests the narrative of German de-industrialization was likely overblown.
• Adjust risk models to account for the potentially diminishing impact of Middle Eastern conflicts on global markets, particularly due to US energy independence.
• Analyze supply chains for bifurcated risks: exposure to intensifying US-China economic friction on one hand, and consolidation within the North American trade bloc on the other.
• Look beyond the current AI hype for the next major market theme; begin researching robotics and automation sectors as potential successors driven by labor shortages.
• When a major conflict ends, shift focus to monitoring the internal political stability of the involved nations, as peace can often precede a new phase of domestic turmoil.