EP29 The Handmaidens of the Apocalypse
Audio Brief
Show transcript
This episode covers the often-forgotten threat of nuclear war, revisiting the immense danger that was palpable during the Cold War.
There are four key takeaways from this conversation. First, the danger of nuclear war remains a primary existential threat, even if it is no longer part of daily public consciousness. Second, understanding the reality of nuclear conflict requires moving beyond abstract data to personal, narrative-driven scenarios. Third, nuclear submarines are the most destabilizing element of the nuclear triad. Fourth, their stealth capability drastically shortens attack warning times, creating dangerously high risks of catastrophic miscalculation.
The discussion emphasizes that nuclear war remains an imminent existential threat, despite modern society having lost the visceral sense of danger. A deep appreciation for this threat, prevalent during the Cold War, has largely faded.
Annie Jacobsen’s book, Nuclear War: A Scenario, is praised for its unique approach. It grounds a terrifying, moment-by-moment scenario in extensive interviews with high-level military and government experts, making the consequences of nuclear war feel tangible and immediate. This fact-based narrative helps bridge the gap between abstract threat and personal reality.
The episode also examines the components of the nuclear triad, specifically land-based missiles, bombers, and submarines. Among these, nuclear submarines are identified as the most stealthy and controversial element. These platforms, often termed “handmaidens of the apocalypse,” are nearly untraceable.
The untraceability of submarines dramatically reduces attack warning times. While land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles provide about a 30-minute warning, a submarine-launched missile can strike in as little as 14 minutes. This compressed decision window dangerously increases the risk of catastrophic miscalculation and leaves virtually no time for verification or response.
This conversation serves as a crucial reminder of the enduring, overlooked danger posed by nuclear weapons and the fragility of global stability.
Episode Overview
- The podcast revisits the forgotten but ever-present threat of nuclear war, arguing that society no longer appreciates the immense danger that was palpable during the Cold War.
- It highlights Annie Jacobsen's book, Nuclear War: A Scenario, which uses a deeply researched, fact-based narrative to make the abstract horror of a nuclear exchange feel personal and immediate.
- The discussion breaks down the components of the nuclear triad—land-based missiles, bombers, and submarines—and the strategic thinking behind them.
- A significant focus is placed on the uniquely destabilizing nature of nuclear submarines, which are nearly untraceable and can launch an attack with drastically reduced warning times.
Key Concepts
- Forgotten Nuclear Threat: The conversation centers on the idea that society has lost the constant sense of imminent existential threat from nuclear weapons that defined the Cold War era.
- Fact-Based Narrative: Annie Jacobsen's book is praised for its unique approach of grounding a terrifying, moment-by-moment scenario in extensive interviews with high-level military and government experts, making the consequences of nuclear war feel tangible.
- The Nuclear Triad: The three pillars of nuclear deterrence are discussed: land-based ICBMs, bombers, and submarines. Submarines are identified as the most stealthy and controversial component.
- "Handmaidens of the Apocalypse": This powerful term is used to describe nuclear submarines, emphasizing their role as stealthy, untraceable platforms capable of initiating a world-ending conflict with almost no warning.
- Reduced Attack Warning Time: While ICBMs provide about a 30-minute warning, a submarine-launched missile can strike in as little as 14 minutes, dramatically compressing the decision-making window and increasing the risk of miscalculation.
- Secrecy and Nuclear Information: Details about nuclear capabilities and war plans are "jealously guarded secrets" within the defense establishment, making credible, firsthand accounts exceedingly rare.
- Overwhelming Destructive Power: A single American Ohio-class submarine carries enough nuclear weapons to destroy an entire country or continent, highlighting the immense scale of the threat from a single platform.
Quotes
- At 0:49 - "If we want to think about how we're going to end up with a Statue of Liberty in the sand moment in our future, well, nuclear weapons would seem to be the odds-on favorite vehicle for creating it." - Carlin describes nuclear weapons as the most probable cause of a civilization-ending catastrophe.
- At 1:12 - "I think we've forgotten how it felt during the height of the Cold War to consider the fact that you could wake up and find out that the missiles were on the way." - He expresses concern that people have lost the sense of imminent existential threat that once defined the era.
- At 25:43 - "Handmaidens of the apocalypse." - The host quotes this term from the author's book to refer to nuclear submarines, finding it so powerful he used it as the show's title.
- At 26:43 - "It's easier to find a grapefruit-sized object in space than a nuclear-armed, nuclear-powered submarine under the sea." - The author quotes a former Vice Admiral to illustrate the profound stealth and untraceability of nuclear submarines.
- At 27:35 - "...they could unleash a sub-launched ballistic missile in literally 14 minutes from launch order." - This quote highlights the terrifyingly short timeline of a submarine-based nuclear attack, leaving virtually no time for verification or response.
Takeaways
- The danger of nuclear war remains a primary existential threat, even if it is no longer a part of daily public consciousness.
- Understanding the reality of nuclear conflict requires moving beyond abstract data to personal, narrative-driven scenarios that illustrate the human cost.
- Nuclear submarines are the most destabilizing element of the nuclear triad, as their stealth capability drastically shortens attack warning times to under 15 minutes.
- The combination of untraceable platforms and compressed decision timelines creates a fragile system where the risk of catastrophic miscalculation is dangerously high.
