ELE JUROU QUE NUNCA IA VENDER... MENTIU? | Crypto Never Sleeps #31|

Episode Overview

• The episode explores the evolution of Bitcoin investment strategies, moving from ideological "hodling" to pragmatic financial engineering focused on maximizing shareholder value.
• It introduces the concept of "accretive dilution" and the "Bitcoin Yield" metric as new frameworks for evaluating publicly traded Bitcoin treasury companies.
• The discussion provides a macro analysis of the crypto market, questioning whether recent price action is a sustainable recovery or a bear market rally, with the $100,000 level identified as the ultimate test.
• It delves into the fundamental trade-offs between decentralization and efficiency in blockchain technology, using Ethereum's reliance on centralized services like Infura and AWS as a key case study.

Key Concepts

• Bitcoin's Game Theory: The network's resilience stems from a design where all participants (miners, investors, companies) act purely out of economic self-interest, with no obligation or loyalty to the network's ideology.
• Pragmatism over Ideology: A significant market shift is occurring where large entities, including miners and corporations like MicroStrategy, are moving away from a "hold at all costs" mentality toward strategies that prioritize profitability and shareholder value, even if it means selling Bitcoin.
• Accretive Dilution: The financial strategy employed by public companies to acquire more Bitcoin by issuing new shares or convertible notes. The goal is to ensure the growth in Bitcoin holdings outpaces the shareholder dilution.
• Bitcoin Yield: A key performance metric (BTC per share) designed to measure how effectively a company's management executes its accretive dilution strategy, allowing for comparison between different firms.
• Bear Market "Repique": The idea that current positive price movements in the crypto market may be a temporary "repique" (bear market rally) rather than the start of a new bull run, with the $100,000 level for Bitcoin being the true confirmation point.
• Decentralization vs. Efficiency Trade-off: The inherent conflict in blockchain technology where achieving high levels of decentralization and security, as seen in Bitcoin, necessarily comes at the cost of performance, scalability, and efficiency.
• Centralization Risks in "Decentralized" Ecosystems: Many prominent crypto projects, most notably Ethereum, depend heavily on centralized infrastructure services like AWS and Infura, creating single points of failure that contradict their decentralized ethos.

Quotes

• At 0:00 - "O Bitcoin não deve nada para os mineradores e os mineradores não devem nada para o Bitcoin. E é por isso que funciona." - Felipe Demartini explains the relationship between Bitcoin and miners is based on self-interest, not loyalty.
• At 0:06 - "Teoria dos jogos que baseia o Bitcoin, ela parte do pressuposto que cada agente na rede do Bitcoin, ele é egoísta e ele só tá ali pelos próprios interesses." - Demartini outlines the core game theory principle that underpins the Bitcoin network.
• At 0:35 - "A gente também é hodler. Até que a gente tem que pagar alguns custos, que aí a gente vai vender." - Demartini describes the pragmatic mindset of miners who were once seen as ideological "hodlers."
• At 1:18 - "Sim, nós poderíamos vender Bitcoin. E nós faríamos isso porque seria a melhor coisa para os nossos acionistas." - Demartini recounts Michael Saylor's statement, confirming that shareholder value now takes precedence over holding Bitcoin at all costs.
• At 24:12 - "Eu crio 'converts', que são as convertible notes." - Explaining one of the key financial instruments used to raise capital, where debt notes can be converted into company shares.
• At 24:43 - "Qual que é o objetivo? Que se você aumentar a quantidade de ações, você tem que comprar um número de bitcoins que aumente mais do que a quantidade de ações." - Defining the core principle of accretive dilution: ensuring the growth in Bitcoin holdings outpaces the growth in the number of shares.
• At 25:55 - "A diferença deu o Bitcoin Yield. Esse é o Bitcoin Yield, né? O delta de quanto aumentou em percentual." - Coining and defining the "Bitcoin Yield" metric, which measures the percentage increase in Bitcoin per share after a capital raise and subsequent purchase.
• At 28:52 - "Você tá fazendo uma aposta naquele management, naquelas pessoas pra executar a estratégia." - Highlighting that investing in these companies is fundamentally a bet on the management's ability to execute a complex financial strategy, not just a simple bet on Bitcoin's price.
• At 54:24 - "Pra mim a batalha verdadeira vai ser no 100k." - The speaker posits that the $100,000 mark will be the definitive moment that determines whether Bitcoin has truly entered a new bull market or will face a major rejection.
• At 55:17 - "Até lá, pode ser só um repique de bear market, na minha opinião." - This quote summarizes the speaker's core thesis: any price increase before decisively breaking the $100,000 level should be viewed as a temporary rally within a larger bear market trend.
• At 56:14 - "Não dá para usar indicamentos de fundo de bull market em um bear market." - A warning against misapplying analytical tools, suggesting that indicators signaling a bottom during bull market corrections are not reliable in a prolonged bear market.
• At 59:39 - "Se você me perguntasse em 2024 quanto que eu achava que o Bitcoin ia render em 2025, eu não tava falando menos 10%... Ninguém tava." - A reflection on how the market's recent performance has fallen short of the highly optimistic expectations held in previous years.
• At 1:03:07 - "Se você não precisa de descentralização, pra que blockchain então?" - A critical question posed about the crypto space, arguing that if applications prioritize efficiency and user experience over decentralization, they may not need blockchain at all.
• At 1:04:42 - "Então, o Ethereum e a maioria, eles dependem do... de... AWS, pô." - The speaker points out the centralization risk in the Ethereum ecosystem, noting its heavy reliance on centralized cloud services like Amazon Web Services (AWS).
• At 84:24 - "Porque no whitepaper do Bitcoin não existe a palavra blockchain. Tem 'chain of blocks'." - Nancio highlights that the now-common term "blockchain" was not part of Bitcoin's original concept, which was a specific data structure.
• At 85:17 - "Blockchain não tem como ser eficiente... Se a eficiência é importante, não tem como fazer na blockchain." - Nancio states a fundamental trade-off of the technology, where its core features like decentralization and security come at the cost of performance.
• At 115:03 - "Maior acerto, ter largado o Ethereum quando eu descobri sobre o Infura e ter ido all-in no Bitcoin... Maior erro, gastar Bitcoin." - Nancio reflects on his crypto journey during a rapid-fire Q&A.
• At 115:28 - "Cento e sessenta." - Nancio's price prediction for Bitcoin by mid-2025.
• At 116:00 - "Eu queimo 'O Investidor Inteligente' e eu levo 'Shōgun'." - Nancio answers which book he would take to a desert island to read versus which one he would burn.

Takeaways

• Trust the network's incentives, not the professed ideology of its participants; all actors will ultimately prioritize their own financial self-interest.
• When evaluating a Bitcoin treasury company, analyze its "Bitcoin Yield" (BTC per share) to determine management's effectiveness, rather than just looking at the total BTC on its balance sheet.
• Investing in a Bitcoin treasury company is an active bet on the management team's skill in capital markets, not just a passive proxy for the price of Bitcoin.
• Approach the current market with caution, viewing significant price rallies as potential bear market traps until Bitcoin decisively surpasses the $100,000 level.
• Avoid applying analytical indicators and models from bull markets during a bear market, as the underlying market dynamics are fundamentally different and can lead to flawed conclusions.
• Critically assess if a project truly needs a blockchain; if extreme decentralization and censorship resistance are not requirements, a traditional database is likely more efficient.
• Look beyond marketing claims of decentralization and investigate a project's core infrastructure for hidden centralization risks, such as reliance on services like AWS or Infura.
• Understand that blockchain technology is inherently inefficient by design; its value lies in security and trust-minimization, not speed or low transaction costs.
• The shift from ideological hodling to pragmatic financial strategy by major players like Michael Saylor signals a maturation of the market and a new era for institutional capital.
• A single discovery about a project's fundamental weakness, like its reliance on a centralized service, can be a powerful catalyst to re-evaluate and adjust your entire investment thesis.
• Do not underestimate the psychological difficulty of spending an appreciating asset like Bitcoin; holding can be a simpler and more effective long-term strategy.