CUIDADO INVESTIDOR: 2026 PODE ACABAR COM SEUS INVESTIMENTOS

Episode Overview

• The episode begins with a reflection on the market's performance, contrasting the difficult end of 2024 with the significant recovery in 2025.
• Paulo Abreu of Mantaro Capital shares his outlook for Brazil in 2026, highlighting key challenges such as the electoral cycle and interest rate movements.
• The core of the discussion revolves around a sophisticated approach to risk management, emphasizing the difference between volatility and true "stress risk."
• Abreu explains his firm's philosophy of being primarily a "risk allocator" and the importance of analyzing the downside potential of every investment.

Key Concepts

• Risk vs. Volatility: A central theme is that volatility is not synonymous with risk. True risk is defined as stress, which occurs when multiple negative scenarios materialize simultaneously and historical correlations break down.
• Role of a Fund Manager: The primary job of a manager is framed as being an "allocator of risk." This involves not just seeking upside but diligently managing and understanding the potential downside of each position in the portfolio.
• "Premortem" Analysis: A mental framework where an investor imagines an investment has already failed in the future. By working backward from this failure, one can identify hidden risks, flawed assumptions, and potential "black swan" events that weren't obvious when only considering the upside.
• Macroeconomics in Brazil: For a Brazilian equity fund, ignoring the macroeconomic landscape is not an option. Factors like politics, interest rates, and economic cycles directly influence the intrinsic value and growth prospects of companies.
• Position Sizing as a Control Mechanism: While market events are uncontrollable, an investor's primary tool for managing risk is position sizing. The size of an investment should be determined by a thorough analysis of its potential downside.

Quotes

• At 00:10 - "dezembro de 2024 eu fiquei até doente de tão ruim que o mercado tava, e eu aportando dinheiro e a bolsa caindo." - Thiago Salomão reflecting on the pessimistic market sentiment at the end of 2024, just before a major recovery.
• At 01:43 - "primeira coisa, vol não é risco. Esquece isso. Risco é estresse." - Paulo Abreu explaining the core philosophy of his risk management approach, which focuses on preparing for extreme scenarios rather than just daily price fluctuations.
• At 05:25 - "Se colocar no futuro e imaginar: 'olha só, eu errei nesse investimento'. Se eu errei nesse investimento... um premortem... por que que eu posso ter errado?" - Paulo Abreu describing the "premortem" mental exercise of imagining an investment has failed in order to identify all potential risks beforehand.

Takeaways

• Conduct "Premortems" on Your Investments: Before committing capital, perform a mental exercise where you assume the investment has failed. Work backward to identify every possible reason for the failure. This forces you to analyze downside risks that are often overlooked when focusing only on potential gains.
• Acknowledge and Prepare for Unknown Risks: Recognize that some of the biggest risks are the ones you cannot foresee (the "black swans"). This understanding should lead to more prudent position sizing and building a portfolio that is resilient to unexpected systemic shocks.
• Stop Positions Based on Your Thesis, Not Just Price: Instead of using arbitrary price-based stop-losses, re-evaluate your positions when the fundamental thesis behind the investment is proven wrong. Market price can be misleading, but a broken thesis is a clear signal to exit.