ASCENSÃO DE FLÁVIO BOLSONARO, FIM DO TRADE TARCÍSIO E OS CENÁRIOS PARA 2026 | Market Makers #301

Episode Overview

• The podcast analyzes the premature start of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election cycle, focusing on the Bolsonaro family's strategic positioning of Flávio Bolsonaro as a potential successor to his father.
• Experts discuss the financial market's misinterpretation of Jair Bolsonaro's political influence, arguing that he remains in control of the succession timeline and is using it to consolidate power.
• The conversation broadens to cover the structural impediments to political renewal in Brazil, such as the power of budget amendments and the perpetuation of political dynasties.
• Public security is identified as a potent and decisive issue for upcoming elections, with right-wing, hardline discourse seen as having a significant advantage in appealing to a frustrated electorate.

Key Concepts

• Early Start to the 2026 Election Cycle: The political climate for the 2026 presidential election is already highly charged, with maneuvering and analysis expected to be a long and turbulent process extending beyond the election itself.
• Market Miscalculation: The financial market incorrectly assumed Jair Bolsonaro would be politically neutralized, leading to a surprised and panicked reaction when Flávio Bolsonaro was positioned as a potential candidate.
• Bolsonaro's Political Strategy: Jair Bolsonaro is strategically controlling the timeline of his succession, using the available time to maintain leverage and prevent his political capital from being transferred prematurely to a successor like Tarcísio de Freitas.
• "Naming Rights" of the Bolsonaro Family: The promotion of Flávio is seen as a "course correction" to resolve internal family disputes over political inheritance and consolidate the Bolsonaro brand under family control.
• Flávio Bolsonaro's Moderate Profile: Flávio is presented as the most politically pragmatic and moderate member of the family, capable of the dialogue and negotiation required in Brasília.
• Structural Barriers to Political Renewal: The current system of budget amendments gives incumbent politicians an immense financial advantage, making it nearly impossible for new candidates to compete effectively.
• The Illusion of Congressional Renovation: High turnover rates in Congress often mask the continuation of political dynasties, with new faces frequently being relatives of established politicians.
• Evolving Profile of Congress: The Brazilian Congress is described as becoming more socially conservative while simultaneously being less economically liberal or pro-market.
• Public Security as a Dominant Political Theme: Rising crime rates have made public security a central issue that favors right-wing candidates, whose hardline rhetoric resonates more effectively with an angry and fearful population.

Quotes

• At 06:08 - "Sim, sim, sim, tá começando mais um Market Makers. Seja bem-vindo à última live de 2025." - The host opens the final live broadcast of the year, mistakenly saying 2025 instead of 2023.
• At 09:47 - "Na Necton. Começo dia 15 na Necton." - Richard Back announces his new role at the brokerage firm Necton, where he will continue his work as a political analyst.
• At 10:01 - "A gente achou que esse ano ia ser calmo, mas já tá transbordando pra esse ano, né? De tão, tão agitado que vai ser. E vai transbordar pra 27 também. Ano que vem vai ser largo." - Richard Back comments on how the political turmoil expected for the 2026 election year is already beginning and will be a long, drawn-out process.
• At 37:16 - "Quem dá o tempo é ele, não é o Tarcísio, não é o mercado... O Bolsonaro se quiser ficar quieto daqui até abril, fica." - Richard Ferri explains that Jair Bolsonaro, not the market or other politicians, is in control of the timeline for choosing a successor for the right.
• At 37:31 - "[O mercado] tá reagindo com um susto de uma avaliação que estava errada." - Richard Ferri critiques the financial market for its panicked reaction to Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy, arguing it was based on the incorrect assumption that Jair Bolsonaro was already out of the political game.
• At 38:49 - "Se você tem prazo, você usa... O Bolsonaro tem prazo... quem não tem prazo são os outros." - Richard Ferri uses a political maxim to explain Bolsonaro's strategy of delaying his succession decision to maximize his political leverage until the last possible moment.
• At 39:01 - "[A escolha do Flávio foi] uma correção de rota importante, porque estava dando um racha no naming rights da família." - Richard Ferri analyzes the decision to support Flávio as a strategic move to prevent an internal power struggle over the family's political legacy.
• At 41:11 - "Ele [Flávio] é o Bolsonaro mais moderado mesmo da família." - Richard Ferri describes Flávio Bolsonaro's political style as genuinely more moderate compared to other family members.
• At 41:20 - "É um cara que entende essa linguagem, assim. Não é um personagem que ele tá criando. De fato, ele tá colocando em marcha uma, uma, uma coisa que ele é." - Richard Ferri argues that Flávio Bolsonaro's move toward moderation is authentic to his political profile and not just a temporary act.
• At 57:36 - "Um passo para você mudar esse congresso, que não vai acontecer, é você mexer no orçamento, né? Os deputados e senadores estão indo fazer campanha com muito dinheiro." - Explaining that the key to changing Congress lies in reforming the budget system, which gives incumbents a massive financial advantage.
• At 57:57 - "Você vai chegar lá, você vai disputar com um cara que libera 80 milhões de reais por ano, fora extra, fora um monte de coisa. Então, esse cara já tem uma porrada de prefeito, ele já tem uma rede montada." - Illustrating the immense difficulty a new candidate faces when competing against an incumbent with access to significant public funds.
• At 58:28 - "Toda eleição você tem lá, 50% de renovação. Aí quando você vai olhar mesmo, tem um monte de neto, um monte de filho... Então essa renovação não é tão assim." - Criticizing the metric of congressional "renovation," arguing that it often masks the continuation of political dynasties.
• At 59:52 - "Enquanto tiver com esse modelo eleitoral e com esse modelo de financiamento de eleição... é muito difícil disputar de frente com o congresso que está aí." - Summarizing the core argument that the current electoral and campaign finance models are the biggest obstacles to genuine political renewal.
• At 1:01:25 - "É um congresso mais conservador, mas economicamente menos liberal." - Describing the current political alignment of the Brazilian Congress, which has shifted right on social issues but not on pro-market economic policy.
• At 1:03:37 - "É mais fácil chegar ano que vem com a direita dizendo: 'ó, vamos prender todo mundo'... e as pessoas comprarem esse tipo de discurso, do que conseguir comprar um discurso que pode ser mais bem elaborado... A população tá com raiva." - Explaining why the right-wing discourse on security is more politically effective, as it appeals directly to the public's frustration with crime.

Takeaways

• The 2026 political race is already underway, so observers should prepare for a prolonged period of high political volatility.
• Avoid underestimating Jair Bolsonaro's political influence; he remains the key decision-maker for the right-wing's succession plan.
• Market participants should exercise caution before reacting to political headlines, as the true landscape for 2026 will only become clear after the municipal election window in March 2025.
• Interpret Flávio Bolsonaro's emergence not as a random event, but as a calculated move to maintain the family's control over its political brand.
• Recognize that genuine political renewal in Brazil is severely hampered by a system that gives incumbents overwhelming financial and structural advantages.
• Be critical of "congressional renovation" statistics, as they often hide the perpetuation of political power within the same families.
• Understand that a more socially conservative Congress does not automatically translate to a more economically liberal or pro-market legislature.
• Anticipate public security to be a central and potentially decisive issue in upcoming elections.
• The simplicity and emotional appeal of hardline security rhetoric gives right-wing candidates a powerful advantage in the current political climate.