AS TENDÊNCIAS QUE VÃO TRANSFORMAR O MERCADO CRIPTO EM 2026 | Crypto Never Sleeps #35

Episode Overview

• Explores the maturation of the crypto market from retail-driven speculation to a regulated, institution-dominated environment driven by legislation like the "Clarity Act."
• Argues that the traditional "4-Year Halving Cycle" is obsolete, replaced by macroeconomic "regime modeling" and institutional capital flows.
• Redefines "Altseason" for the current high-interest-rate environment, predicting that liquidity will concentrate in quality assets rather than lifting the entire market.
• Contrasts the dystopian "Panopticon" of CBDCs with the geopolitical "soft power" benefits of US-regulated private stablecoins.
• Examines the behavior of "Rational Actors" in corporate finance, debunking the myth that companies will religiously "HODL" Bitcoin against their financial incentives.

Key Concepts

• The "Clarity Act" & Regulatory Lag: Legislation is the primary catalyst for institutional entry, but it follows a specific lag sequence: Law Passed → Regulatory Implementation → Institutional Product Build → Price Action. Markets often stall while waiting for the implementation phase, meaning legal clarity does not cause immediate price spikes but sets the floor for future growth.
• Liquidity Dispersion vs. Concentration: In previous zero-interest cycles, a "rising tide lifted all boats." In the current environment of 5% interest rates and millions of new tokens, capital is expensive and diluted. Liquidity will not flow broadly to all altcoins but will concentrate heavily in assets that have regulatory alignment, utility, or institutional backing.
• The Death of the 4-Year Cycle: The mathematical impact of the Bitcoin Halving (supply shock) has diminished significantly as the total circulating supply has grown. Market movements are now dictated by global macroeconomics (interest rates, liquidity) and "passive flows" (ETFs) rather than the internal mechanics of the blockchain.
• Regime Modeling: Instead of relying on rigid time-based cycles (e.g., "sell after 4 years"), successful investing now requires determining the current economic "regime" (Risk-On vs. Risk-Off) based on real-time data like inflation stability, credit spreads, and geopolitical tension.
• Rational Actors vs. Ideology: Corporate participants (like MicroStrategy or miners) are not ideological "Bitcoin Maxis." They are rational actors playing an adversarial game. If they need to service debt or cover operational costs, they will sell assets regardless of community sentiment.
• Passive Flows & Index Inclusion: A major driver of price action is now "blind" capital from ETFs and indices. If a crypto-holding company enters or exits a major index (like the S&P 500), billions of dollars in automated flows are forced to buy or sell, creating volatility unrelated to the asset's fundamentals.
• The Panopticon vs. Soft Power: Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are described as a "Panopticon" offering total state surveillance. In contrast, regulated stablecoins represent a strategic US interest: they export the US Dollar globally, reinforcing American financial dominance ("Soft Power") without the domestic privacy violations of a CBDC.
• Blockchain as a "Truth Machine": The true value of Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization is not just trading efficiency but fraud prevention. In a world of complex financial instruments, a transparent, immutable ledger prevents the creation of fake assets and collateral scandals common in traditional finance.

Quotes

• At 0:03:01 - "Information is what moves price. When we see Bitcoin entering a trend... it's because information is missing." - Explaining why markets range sideways when there is no new regulatory or narrative catalyst.
• At 0:05:26 - "Altseason, perhaps as we knew it in 2021, won't come anymore." - Signalling the end of the "easy mode" era where every speculative asset increased in value simultaneously.
• At 0:06:35 - "[Retail assets under custody] rose 30%. How much do you think the [institutional] side rose? 110%." - highlighting the unseen divergence between retail apathy and aggressive institutional accumulation.
• At 0:15:45 - "Imagine the scenario where all money is centralized and digital. You can be censored at any moment... [CBDCs] do not make sense for the individual." - Articulating the privacy argument against government-issued digital currencies.
• At 0:19:39 - "It requires much more skill to be operating in [this] market... Drawdown is that loss in relation to your peak performance." - Emphasizing that the current dispersed liquidity environment requires active risk management.
• At 0:24:00 - "You shouldn't be ideological in politics or in crypto because everyone is a market participant... a player in this adversarial game and will think rationally." - Warning investors not to project their own "HODL" beliefs onto corporate entities.
• At 0:26:18 - "Regulations make price... The Genius Act gives the form of how the law should be executed... Only now are we seeing banks like Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan start to issue stablecoins." - Clarifying that the price impact of laws is delayed by years of bureaucratic implementation.
• At 0:31:30 - "If MicroStrategy left this index, about 2 to 8 billion dollars of flows would leave this stock." - Illustrating the massive power of traditional finance plumbing and passive flows on crypto prices.
• At 0:40:40 - "The tokenization of Coinbase... any institution that wants to tokenize real-world assets can use Base. It is a market that has 600 trillion dollars in assets that can be tokenized." - Framing Coinbase as a future infrastructure layer for traditional finance, not just an exchange.
• At 0:51:51 - "Mathematically, the Halving necessarily does not make a difference for this cycle anymore... Imagine a reservoir of water; if 98% of that water is already in the pool, the level won't change much based on the trickle coming in." - Debunking the continued relevance of the supply shock narrative.
• At 0:53:57 - "Not only in the macroeconomic data do we see that the scenario is positive, but you already see this reaction even in stocks... cyclical stocks, automobiles, household goods." - Using traditional equity sectors to confirm a crypto-friendly "risk-on" environment.
• At 0:59:36 - "It's in the interest of the state... the American state, to make this [stablecoin] business work." - Predicting favorable stablecoin regulation because it aligns with US geopolitical goals.
• At 1:04:43 - "To my mind, [the importance of tokenization] comes immediately to the issue of fraud prevention... it's harder for you to commit fraud, to create fake financial assets." - Identifying the primary utility of blockchain in traditional finance.
• At 1:07:42 - "I kind of extinguished thinking in cycles when investing and migrated to something more real-time, which is regime modeling. Understanding the moment you are in based on all the information you have." - Summarizing the necessary pivot in investment strategy for the modern market.

Takeaways

• Abandon the "4-Year Cycle" Map: Stop timing your entries and exits based on the Halving schedule. Instead, focus on macroeconomic indicators (rates, inflation, liquidity) to determine if the market is "risk-on" or "risk-off."
• Focus on "Quality" Over "Quantity": Do not spray capital into random altcoins expecting a 2021-style universal pump. Concentrate investments in assets with regulatory clarity, institutional backing, or real-world utility.
• Monitor the "Regulatory Lag": When positive legislation passes, do not expect an immediate pump. Use the "implementation phase" (when regulators are writing the rules) to position yourself before products launch and price action follows.
• Track Passive Flows: Pay attention to major crypto companies (like MicroStrategy or Coinbase) entering or exiting major stock indices. These events trigger massive, automated buy/sell pressure that you can anticipate.
• Assess Corporate Incentives: Don't trust the ideological "diamond hands" narrative of public companies. Analyze their debt structures and operational costs to predict when they might be forced to sell their crypto holdings.
• Bet on Infrastructure, Not Just Tokens: Look at companies and protocols building the "rails" for traditional finance (like Coinbase's Base or stablecoin issuers) as they are positioned to capture value from the $600 trillion RWA market.
• Use "Regime Modeling" for Entries: Adapt your strategy in real-time. If cyclical stocks and small caps are rallying, the regime is likely favorable for crypto. If credit spreads widen, the regime has shifted to safety.
• Differentiate Between Stablecoins and CBDCs: Recognize that while the industry fights CBDCs, it will embrace regulated private stablecoins. Investments in the stablecoin ecosystem align with US national interests and are likely to succeed.