AS 7 TENDÊNCIAS QUE VÃO TRANSFORMAR O MUNDO EM 2026 | Market Makers #303

Episode Overview

• The discussion redefines ESG as Economy, Security, and Geopolitics, arguing these are the new drivers of the global order, replacing older frameworks.
• It analyzes the major power dynamics, including China's internal economic challenges (like "involution") despite its trade dominance, the US actively reshaping global rules in a "New Bretton Woods," and Europe's struggle to find its place.
• The conversation highlights the emergence of an "AI-centric" world where artificial intelligence is the central benchmark for economic power and relevance.
• It explores a shift in international relations away from rigid blocs towards flexible, "à la carte" geo-economic alliances based on specific national interests.
• Brazil's strategic position is examined, highlighting its vast potential in resources but criticizing its outdated ideological approach, which hinders its ability to compete effectively.

Key Concepts

• The Metamorphosis of ESG: The traditional Environmental, Social, and Governance framework is being replaced by a new set of priorities: Economy, Security, and Geopolitics (ESG), which now dictate international relations.
• China's Economic Paradox: China exhibits a massive trade surplus while its domestic economy faces significant challenges, including overcapacity, de-industrialization as a share of GDP, and a sense of "involution" among its youth.
• Involution: A key socio-economic concept describing the sentiment in China that the younger generation must work exponentially harder than their parents to achieve a similar or lower quality of life.
• The New Bretton Woods: A US-led initiative to reshape the global order based on reciprocity ("quid pro quo") and strategic autonomy, focusing on securing supply chains for critical goods like semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and rare earth minerals.
• Europe's "Hamlet Moment": A metaphor for the European Union's current state of strategic indecisiveness, economic stagnation, and struggle for identity as it is "sandwiched" between the US and China.
• The AI-Centric World: Artificial Intelligence is no longer just a supporting tool but has become the central organizing principle of the global economy, where proficiency in AI determines competitiveness.
• À La Carte Geo-economic Alliances: The global system is moving away from rigid ideological blocs toward flexible, interest-based partnerships where nations collaborate on specific issues like technology or food security.
• Brazil's Dilemma: The country possesses critical assets for the 21st century (food, energy, minerals) but is handicapped by an outdated ideological worldview that is ill-suited for the current pragmatic and competitive geopolitical landscape.

Quotes

• At 0:11 - "E de economia, S de segurança e G de geopolítica." - Troyjo provides his new definition for the ESG acronym, highlighting the shift from environmental and social concerns to economic power, security, and geopolitical strategy.
• At 0:46 - "...só que água ficou mais importante do que nunca. Comida ficou mais importante do que nunca." - He contrasts the futuristic focus on high technology with the renewed, critical importance of basic survival resources in the current global landscape.
• At 22:39 - "a palavra do ano é o equivalente em mandarim chinês ao termo involução." - Context: Introducing "involution" as a key concept to understand the current mood in China, cited as The Economist's word of the year.
• At 23:02 - "Caso eu, portanto a minha geração, queira fazer a mesma coisa, terá de trabalhar 80 anos." - Context: Explaining the meaning of "involution" with a stark example comparing the work required for the current generation to buy an apartment versus their parents' generation.
• At 39:11 - "Quem tá em primeiro lugar é a China. Quem tá em segundo lugar é o Brasil." - Context: Discussing the ranking of countries with proven reserves of rare earth minerals, emphasizing Brazil's strategically important position.
• At 44:25 - "Quid pro quo." - Context: Summarizing the core principle of the "New Bretton Woods," which is based on reciprocity and the idea that the US will treat other nations' companies and capital as its own are treated abroad.
• At 50:29 - "Existe no mundo um choque de globalizações. Você tem uma globalização que surgiu mais como resultado da expansão de ideias, capitais e tecnologias dos países ocidentais. E você tem um outro agora emergindo, por exemplo, do Sudeste Asiático, da China e mesmo dos países do Oriente Médio." - He describes the current global landscape not as de-globalization, but as a competition between different models of globalization.
• At 50:49 - "Europa e seu momento Hamlet." - Context: Using a literary metaphor to describe Europe's indecisiveness and struggle to define its role while being caught between the competing interests of the US and China.
• At 53:02 - "[A renda per capita nos EUA] hoje ela é o dobro do que a renda per capita nos países da União Europeia." - He uses this stark economic comparison to highlight Europe's significant loss of competitiveness and dynamism over the last 15 years.
• At 53:42 - "Não existe exemplo que ilustre para nós... mais ilustrativo do que essa relutância dos europeus em avançar conosco no acordo Mercosul-União Europeia." - He points to the stalled trade agreement as a prime example of Europe's "Hamlet moment" and its inability to make decisive strategic choices.
• At 1:00:20 - "A inteligência aumentada ou a inteligência artificial, ela é mais do que transversal... é como se toda a economia tivesse um ponto de referência que é, mais uma vez, o quão associado, o quanto você incorporou de inteligência artificial." - Troyjo introduces the concept of an "AI-centric" world, where AI is the central, defining element of economic activity, not just an auxiliary tool.
• At 1:10:54 - "O Brasil tá sendo chamado pra uma aula de computação. Só que ele tá indo com um equipamento muito antigo... um daqueles computadores do tipo 286, né? E um floppy disk." - Troyjo uses an analogy to criticize Brazil's current geopolitical and economic approach as outdated and ill-suited for the modern world's challenges.
• At 1:12:32 - "A pior maneira de você entrar nesse jogo geoeconômico do século XXI é ir inocente." - He warns that Brazil must abandon its naive and ideological foreign policy to succeed in a world of pragmatic, interest-based alliances.

Takeaways

• Prioritize geoeconomic strategy over ideology, as national interests in economy and security now drive global relations.
• Develop a core competency in Artificial Intelligence, as it has become the central benchmark for economic relevance and competitiveness.
• Adopt a flexible, "à la carte" approach to foreign policy, forming alliances based on specific interests rather than rigid, outdated blocs.
• Operate on the principle of reciprocity ("quid pro quo"), as the new global order demands mutual and balanced benefits in trade and investment.
• Recognize that fundamental resources like food, water, and critical minerals have regained strategic importance alongside high technology.
• To succeed, nations must align their worldview with modern realities; possessing valuable assets is insufficient without a pragmatic, up-to-date strategy.
• Understand that China's internal socio-economic pressures, such as "involution," will significantly influence its foreign policy and global economic behavior.
• Avoid naivety in international affairs; the current global environment is highly competitive, and all actors are pursuing their own strategic advantage.