A SELIC EM 15% VAI QUEBRAR AS EMPRESAS BRASILEIRAS? | Market Makers #297

Episode Overview

• The podcast explores the challenges facing Brazilian small and medium-sized businesses in a high-interest-rate environment, leading many to use judicial recovery as a strategic tool for survival.
• It details the business model of Wealth Money, a peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platform, highlighting its extremely rigorous credit analysis which approves less than 1% of loan applicants.
• The discussion covers the investor experience on the platform, which empowers individuals to build their own customized fixed-income portfolios by directly funding businesses, acting as "a nicer bank."
• The founders share their risk management strategies, long-term vision for international expansion and AI integration, and personal philosophies on entrepreneurship and leadership.

Key Concepts

• Economic Context: High interest rates in Brazil are driving an increase in companies using judicial recovery (RJ) not just out of necessity, but as a strategic maneuver to gain breathing room and manage debt.
• P2P Lending Model: The platform provides an alternative source of credit for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), democratizing access to an investment class traditionally dominated by banks.
• Rigorous Credit Analysis: A highly selective credit approval process, where only 1 in 140 applicants is approved, is guided by the core principle: "Would we personally lend to this company?"
• Risk Management & Diversification: The platform manages a default rate of approximately 4% for loans over 90 days past due. It employs automated safeguards ("travas") to enforce investor diversification, aiming to ensure above-average returns even with potential defaults.
• Investor Profile & Experience: The user base of over 50,000 investors is primarily composed of married men aged 40-50. These investors can build customized fixed-income portfolios by choosing which specific businesses to fund.
• Operational Mechanics: The process of investors funding a loan and the company disbursing the money to the borrower is "concomitant" (simultaneous) to minimize platform risk.
• Market Education: A significant challenge is educating the public and potential investors on the legal and operational differences between regulated P2P lending and illegal practices like loan sharking ("agiotagem").
• Future Vision: The founders have long-term goals to evolve into a larger financial institution, expand internationally to Latin America and Europe, and launch an AI-powered investment advisor.
• Founder Philosophy: The conversation reveals a strong belief in the value of practical, real-world experience ("skin in the game") over purely theoretical knowledge in entrepreneurship.

Quotes

• At 0:15 - "Muitas empresas estão utilizando como recurso até mesmo para conter a taxa de juros alta." - Diego Camacho explains that judicial recovery is being used as a tool to mitigate the effects of high interest rates.
• At 0:28 - "A gente aprova o crédito de uma empresa a cada 140 aproximadamente que pedem empréstimo." - Camacho details the highly selective approval rate for loans on their platform.
• At 0:36 - "Nós emprestaríamos para essa empresa? Sim ou não? Se a resposta for não ou tiver dúvida, a gente não sobe essa empresa no nosso aplicativo." - Camacho explains their fundamental rule for credit analysis.
• At 1:19 - "Se a pessoa não tem essa grana pra expandir, você acaba com vários sonhos... E quantas famílias estão lá dentro daquele negócio?" - Renato Pires emphasizes the social impact of providing credit to small businesses.
• At 23:24 - "A gente faz tudo concomitante." - Explaining that the process of investors funding a loan and the company disbursing the money to the borrower happens simultaneously to mitigate risk.
• At 25:34 - "Homens, casado, com casa própria, com patrimônio já construído, entre 40 e 50 anos." - Describing the primary "persona" or profile of their typical investor.
• At 28:03 - "O nosso over 90 hoje, ele é em torno de 4%." - Discussing their default rate for loans over 90 days past due, positioning it as a competitive and well-managed figure.
• At 29:01 - "Emprestar dinheiro no Brasil é fácil. Difícil é receber." - Using a classic Brazilian saying to emphasize the importance of their rigorous credit analysis and collection process.
• At 35:36 - "A Selic baixa aumenta o fomento. As empresas vão querer... vão ter até mais incentivo pra buscar o crédito." - Explaining that lower interest rates encourage more companies to seek loans for expansion and investment.
• At 46:38 - "A grande pergunta que tá mais recente agora, fala assim: 'Ué, mas cês não é uma agiotagem?'" - Highlighting one of the most common and critical questions they receive from potential investors, related to the legality of their business.
• At 52:27 - "É uma renda fixa e ela consegue fazer a própria carteira dela." - Diego Camacho explaining how the WMoney platform empowers investors to build their own customized fixed-income portfolios.
• At 53:02 - "Pra que no final do dia, mesmo com a inadimplência, ele tenha uma rentabilidade acima da média." - Diego explaining the core principle behind their risk management and diversification guidance to protect investor returns.
• At 54:17 - "As pessoas podem brincar de ser banco, só que um banco mais bonzinho." - A host's playful summary of the P2P lending concept, where individuals can act as lenders.
• At 58:33 - "Qualquer livro de empreendedorismo que o cara que escreveu não abriu um CNPJ... Eu sou completamente contra os empreendedores de biblioteca." - Diego Camacho's strong opinion criticizing authors who teach entrepreneurship without practical experience.

Takeaways

• In high-interest-rate environments, even financially sound companies may use judicial recovery as a strategic tool to manage debt and ensure long-term survival.
• When evaluating high-yield investments, scrutinize the platform's credit analysis process; a highly selective filter is a strong indicator of robust risk management.
• In P2P lending, portfolio diversification is essential to mitigate the impact of individual defaults and protect overall returns.
• Investing in P2P platforms for small businesses can serve a dual purpose: generating potentially high returns while directly supporting the real economy.
• P2P lending platforms can offer greater control and transparency than traditional fixed-income products, allowing you to act as your own credit manager.
• Macroeconomic conditions directly impact the P2P lending market; high interest rates increase borrower demand while creating more competition for investor capital.
• Prioritize business advice and mentorship from entrepreneurs who have direct, real-world experience and a proven track record over purely theoretical guidance.
• True leadership involves taking responsibility for your team's mistakes while giving them credit for successes, fostering a culture of trust and learning.