Why the Roomba Maker iRobot Fell Apart. Plus, Our 2026 Tech Predictions. | EP 169

Episode Overview

• The hosts interview iRobot co-founder Colin Angle about the company's bankruptcy, exploring how a failed acquisition by Amazon and competition from Chinese firms led to its downfall.
• Colin Angle argues that antitrust regulation targeting Big Tech made iRobot "roadkill," serving as a cautionary tale for the future of American innovation in robotics and AI.
• The hosts review their tech predictions from the previous year, assessing their accuracy on topics like the "woke AI" culture war, before making bold new forecasts for 2026.

Key Concepts

• iRobot's Bankruptcy: The company filed for Chapter 11 after a planned $1.7 billion acquisition by Amazon was blocked by US and EU antitrust regulators, leading to a Chinese robotics firm becoming its largest creditor.
• Antitrust "Roadkill": Co-founder Colin Angle's perspective that iRobot was collateral damage in a broader regulatory fight against Amazon, harming a US innovator to punish a tech giant.
• US vs. China Tech Competition: The discussion highlights the challenges US companies face against Chinese competitors who benefit from a protected domestic market and government subsidies.
• Strategic Product Decisions: A look into iRobot's choices, including its defense of camera-based navigation over lidar (which Angle calls a "dead-end technology") and its admitted failure to quickly integrate wet mopping.
• The "Woke AI" Culture War: A successful prediction that conservative groups would launch campaigns against perceived ideological biases in AI models, leading to government scrutiny.
• 2026 Tech Predictions: New forecasts cover a range of topics, including a global trend toward raising the minimum age for social media, the possibility of AI solving a Millennium Prize math problem, and the potential for AI-generated works to win major entertainment awards.
• AI's Political Impact: A prediction that anti-AI sentiment, focusing on job loss and environmental concerns, will become a winning platform for some politicians in the midterm elections.

Quotes

• At 0:47 - "Unfortunately for them, it's Chapter 11." - Casey Newton makes a pun to introduce the topic of iRobot filing for bankruptcy.
• At 8:26 - "...it is a dead-end technology which gives you no situational awareness." - Colin Angle explains his reasoning for rejecting lidar in Roombas, comparing it to the vision-based approach of autonomous vehicles like Tesla.
• At 10:49 - "So, honestly, we got wet mopping wrong." - Colin Angle admits that iRobot made a strategic error by not integrating wet-mopping features into its vacuums as quickly as competitors did.
• At 19:38 - "This is Colin's personal view, we were roadkill." - Colin Angle states his belief that the Amazon acquisition was blocked not because of iRobot, but because regulators wanted to target Amazon, making his company collateral damage.
• At 22:35 - "Let's not screw it up. Let's treat this as the golden goose that could help the U.S. economy drive economic leadership for decades to come." - Colin Angle uses the iRobot story as a warning for how the U.S. should handle emerging physical AI and humanoid robotics.
• At 24:31 - "This was exactly the sort of thing that I thought was going to happen. Honestly, it seemed obvious to me, and it did in fact happen." - Casey Newton reflects on his correct prediction that conservatives would launch a culture war against "woke AI."
• At 32:47 - "My high-confidence prediction for 2026 is that an A.I. company will solve one of the Millennium Prize problems." - Kevin Roose offers his boldest prediction for the upcoming year, suggesting AI will tackle one of the most difficult open problems in mathematics.
• At 35:24 - "I believe that in 2026, we are going to see a group of Democrats win big in the midterms by leaning into anti-A.I. sentiment." - Casey Newton predicts that concerns over job loss will become a powerful political issue.
• At 40:51 - "My low-confidence prediction is that OpenAI is going to retire Sora." - Casey Newton predicts OpenAI will abandon its text-to-video generator due to legal headaches and a shift in business focus.

Takeaways

• Regulatory actions against Big Tech can have severe, unintended consequences for smaller companies, potentially harming domestic innovation while benefiting foreign rivals.
• Even established market leaders must rapidly adapt to core consumer demands, as failing to do so creates critical openings for faster-moving competitors to exploit.
• The perceived ideological bias of AI systems is now a central cultural and political battleground that will continue to influence product development, consumer trust, and government policy.
• Public anxiety over AI's impact on jobs and society is growing into a potent political force that is likely to shape future election platforms and technology regulation.
• Expect AI development to increasingly focus on solving fundamental scientific and mathematical problems, signaling a shift toward pursuing major intellectual breakthroughs.