What Will AI Look Like in 2027? | Interview

Episode Overview

• The episode introduces and discusses "AI 2027," a new scenario forecast predicting the future of artificial intelligence.
• The report was created by the AI Futures Project, led by guest Daniel Kokotajlo, a former OpenAI employee turned whistleblower with a strong track record of accurate predictions.
• The hosts and guest explore the report's methodology, which uses a detailed, research-backed narrative to make the future feel more concrete and understandable.
• They delve into the specific predictions, including the emergence of superhuman AI coders and the rapid acceleration of AI development that could follow.

Key Concepts

• AI 2027 Report: A scenario forecast that tells a fictional but data-grounded story of what the world might look like in 2027 due to AI advancements. It's designed to be more accessible and integrated than traditional academic predictions.
• Scenario Forecasting: A method of prediction that involves creating a detailed, coherent narrative of the future. This forces forecasters to consider how different trends and events will interact, rather than just predicting isolated milestones.
• Daniel Kokotajlo's Credibility: As a former OpenAI employee who accurately predicted the state of AI in 2024 back in 2021, his new forecast is being taken seriously in AI and policy circles.
• Milestones to Superintelligence: The report breaks down the path to advanced AI into distinct stages, starting with "superhuman coders" and progressing to "superhuman AI researchers," with each step dramatically accelerating the next.
• The "Intelligence Explosion": A key concept in the forecast where AI systems that are superhuman at coding and AI research begin to improve themselves, leading to an exponential and potentially uncontrollable increase in intelligence.
• Bets and Bounties: The AI 2027 project includes a system of bets and bounties to encourage public engagement, offering rewards for finding errors, changing the authors' minds, or drafting compelling alternate scenarios.

Quotes

• At 00:16 - "AI 2027... This is a report that I wrote about last week... and that has gotten a lot of attention in AI circles and policy circles this week." - Kevin Roose introduces the episode's central topic, the "AI 2027" report, and emphasizes its immediate impact and relevance.
• At 01:06 - "And he just got a lot of things right." - Casey Newton highlights the credibility of the report's author, Daniel Kokotajlo, by referencing the accuracy of his previous AI predictions made in 2021.
• At 03:43 - "Our goal was to predict the future using the medium of a concrete scenario." - Daniel Kokotajlo explains the purpose of the AI 2027 report, which is to create a tangible narrative that helps people understand the integrated effects of future AI advancements.

Takeaways

• Consider reading the "AI 2027" report. The hosts describe it as a highly engaging, readable, and thought-provoking piece that is more like science fiction than a dry academic paper.
• Scenario forecasting is a valuable tool for understanding complex futures. By building a detailed story, it forces a more holistic consideration of how different technological and social factors will interact.
• The automation of coding and AI research are critical milestones to watch. The report argues that once AI can perform these tasks better than humans, the pace of technological progress could accelerate dramatically.
• Publicly challenging and debating forecasts is crucial. The AI 2027 project actively encourages criticism and alternate views through its "Bets and Bounties" program, aiming to refine predictions through open dialogue.