Venezuela Was Just the Warm-Up: Why Cuba Is the REAL Geopolitical Prize | Marko Papic

Episode Overview

• Explores the trajectory of US foreign policy in Latin America, specifically debating whether recent actions in Venezuela act as a precursor to a more aggressive stance toward Cuba.
• Debates the resurgence of the "Monroe Doctrine", examining whether US interventionism in the Western Hemisphere is a sign of strategic strength or a symptom of declining global power and retrenchment from the Middle East and Asia.
• Analyzes the economic and geopolitical value of Cuba, contrasting its potential as a "frontier economy" rich in nickel and tourism against the argument that it is a geopolitical irrelevance compared to Venezuela.

Key Concepts

• Venezuela as a "Dress Rehearsal": The discussion posits that US pressure on the Maduro regime in Venezuela is merely an "appetizer" or dry run for the ultimate geopolitical goal: regime change in Cuba. While Venezuela has vast oil reserves, Cuba represents a deeper historical "thorn" in the US flank and a critical vulnerability in the Gulf of Mexico.
• The "Retrenchment" Theory of Imperialism: A core disagreement arises regarding the "Monroe Doctrine." One perspective argues that the US is focusing on Latin America not because of a brilliant new strategy, but because of relative global weakness. Having faced setbacks in the Middle East and facing a peer competitor in China (East Asia), the US is projecting power in its own backyard—the one region where it still encounters little resistance.
• Economic Potential vs. Geopolitical Relevance: The speakers debate Cuba's value. One side argues it is the last true "frontier economy" with massive potential in real estate, tourism, and critical minerals (nickel/cobalt) if opened up. The opposing view suggests Cuba has been effectively contained since the Cold War and poses no material threat to US interests, unlike a resource-rich Venezuela.
• The "Notice" Doctrine: Regardless of the strategic motivation, the current US approach serves as a warning to all Latin American leaders. By demonstrating how easily it can destabilize Venezuela, Washington is signaling to the entire hemisphere—from Brazil to Mexico—that alignment with US interests is mandatory, and non-compliance carries existential political risk.

Quotes

• At 0:15 - "I think Venezuela is the amuse-bouche. It's the appetizer. It's the dry run... The true geopolitical prize for the United States... is Cuba." - Explaining the speaker's forecast that US intervention will inevitably pivot toward Havana.
• At 6:10 - "The United States of America is focusing on Latin America because it's weaker in relative terms globally... what it's doing is it's putting its chips closer at home." - Clarifying that regional interventionism is likely a result of global contraction rather than expansionist strength.
• At 11:45 - "The virtue and the weakness of this policy... It is unscrupulous, it is unprincipled, there is no shame... We will come and get you." - Describing the raw, transactional nature of the new foreign policy approach that prioritizes results over diplomatic norms.

Takeaways

• Monitor Critical Mineral Supply Chains in the Caribbean: Investors should look beyond the political rhetoric and recognize Cuba's significant undeveloped reserves of nickel and cobalt. If US policy succeeds in forcing an opening, this represents a major untapped resource play for battery metals.
• Re-evaluate "Safe" Jurisdictions in Latin America: Recognize that the US "open season" policy applies to any leader in the Western Hemisphere who aligns with China or Russia. Political risk analysis for assets in the region must now account for potential US intervention, regardless of whether the local government is left or right-wing.
• Interpret US Foreign Policy through "Least Resistance": When forecasting US intervention, do not look for grand strategy; look for vulnerability. Expect the US to act aggressively in theaters where it has overwhelming leverage (Latin America) while remaining more cautious in theaters with peer competitors (East Asia).