Trump’s "Secret War" in Latin America: It’s Not Venezuela. | Elohim Monard

Episode Overview

• The podcast explores Latin America's re-emergence as a central stage for global geopolitics, challenging the notion that the region has become irrelevant.
• It analyzes the "Trumpization" of Latin American politics, with a rightward shift in major countries like Brazil, Colombia, and Peru.
• The discussion highlights the fundamental tension for these new right-wing governments, which are ideologically aligned with the US but economically dependent on China.
• A core thesis is presented: the US focus on Venezuela is a pretext for a broader, low-intensity war against non-state actors like drug cartels, designed to address US domestic concerns about immigration and security.

Key Concepts

• Geopolitical Re-emergence: Contrary to some expert analysis, Latin America is becoming a central and highly contested geopolitical arena.
• The "Trumpization" of Politics: A significant rightward political shift is occurring across the region, with new leaders mirroring the style and rhetoric of Donald Trump.
• US-China Economic Tension: Right-wing, free-market governments in Latin America face a paradox where their economic survival depends on selling commodities (copper, soybeans) to China, complicating any potential anti-China bloc led by the US.
• China's Deepening Influence: China's role extends beyond trade to include strategic infrastructure projects and foreign direct investment, solidifying its long-term presence.
• Venezuela as a Pretext: The Trump administration's focus on Venezuela is argued to be a strategic justification for a broader regional objective.
• War on Non-State Actors: The true long-term US strategy is framed as a low-intensity, region-wide war against transnational criminal organizations and drug cartels, which are to be labeled as terrorist groups.
• "Chaotic" Foreign Policy as a Strength: The administration's seemingly contradictory and unpredictable foreign policy is presented not as a weakness, but as a flexible strategy that allows it to adapt and choose the most advantageous approach.
• Regional Support for Intervention: An intervention framed as a fight against crime and instability would likely be welcomed by many citizens and leaders in the region who are negatively impacted by these non-state actors.

Quotes

• At 0:17 - "The Trump administration this week declaring fentanyl and its precursors weapons of mass destruction, which I have so many questions." - Jacob introduces a major policy decision affecting US-Latin America relations as a key topic.
• At 0:37 - "I think that Latin America is becoming at the center of the of geopolitics... and this is actually against the odds." - Elo presents his core thesis that Latin America's geopolitical importance is growing, challenging recent narratives of its decline.
• At 2:18 - "Is this the Trumpization of Latin American politics? Are we just going to get a bunch of Trump acolytes?" - Jacob directly questions whether the rightward shift in the region is merely an imitation of Trump's political style.
• At 21:36 - "From a market perspective, you need China. Like who's buying your copper? Who's buying all your commodities? Like it's it's gonna be China there and if you really run afoul of China, you're gonna be in a difficult position." - The host explains the economic paradox facing right-wing governments in Latin America that are commercially dependent on China.
• At 22:20 - "I think this is the most important question for the... for the next two to five years in Latin America. Because China is already there." - The host emphasizes that the geopolitical balancing act between the US and China is the defining issue for the region's immediate future.
• At 33:36 - "So what you see as a weakness, I see as a strength... because this is the style of this government. They throw different cards and then they change the rules of the game to pick the card that is more relevant for their purposes." - The host argues that the Trump administration's contradictory and seemingly chaotic foreign policy is a deliberate strategy that provides flexibility.
• At 38:58 - "I think the war will not be against Venezuela. The war will be against non-state actors... in particular drug traffickers, drug cartels everywhere, that they will frame as terrorists." - The host presents his central thesis: that the focus on Venezuela is a pretext for a broader, low-intensity war against non-state criminal groups in the region.
• At 41:51 - "I do think that this is not about Venezuela. This is the first step for a long run conversation... It is saying, hey, there is a threat for the US here because of security and immigration, and I do think that this is not about Venezuela." - The host reiterates his theory, stating the conflict is a means to justify action on issues that resonate with a US domestic audience.

Takeaways

• Treat Latin America as a primary theater for global power competition, rather than a geopolitical backwater.
• Recognize that a nation's ideological alignment with the US does not override its economic dependencies on China, creating complex and often contradictory foreign policies.
• Analyze US foreign policy in the region by looking beyond stated targets (like a specific regime) to understand how actions serve broader domestic political goals related to security and immigration.
• Anticipate a long-term US strategy focused on combating non-state criminal networks, an approach that could gain significant support from local populations and governments.
• Avoid dismissing seemingly chaotic or inconsistent US policy as simple incompetence; instead, consider it as a potential strategy for maintaining maximum flexibility and leverage.