The moment every civilization fears: the growth plateau | Jason Crawford

Episode Overview

• Explores the historical concept of "progress," noting it's a relatively new idea in human history, which was previously dominated by cyclical or declinist views.
• Traces the acceleration of progress from the Renaissance and Industrial Revolution, driven by scientific discovery and technological feedback loops.
• Discusses the 20th-century slowdown and rise of skepticism towards progress, fueled by wars, environmental concerns, and the perceived risks of new technologies.
• Argues that progress is not inevitable but a choice that requires renewed belief, conscious effort, and investment to solve humanity's biggest challenges.

Key Concepts

• The Idea of Progress: The belief that humanity can and should improve its condition over time through knowledge, technology, and social organization is a modern concept, not a historical constant.
• Accelerating Returns: Progress creates a feedback loop where new knowledge and tools (like the printing press or computers) enable even faster innovation, causing the rate of progress to accelerate over time.
• The Great Stagnation: Despite rapid advances in information technology, the last 50 years have seen a relative slowdown in fundamental breakthroughs in physical sectors like energy, transportation, and manufacturing compared to the period from 1870-1970.
• Anti-Progress Sentiment: The negative consequences of technology, from the world wars to environmental damage, led to a widespread cultural backlash in the 20th century, causing people to become fearful and doubtful of the very idea of progress.
• Progress as a Choice: The speaker argues that progress is not an automatic or unstoppable force. It depends on a society's collective belief in the future and its willingness to invest in and manage the challenges of innovation.

Quotes

• At 0:09 - "Maybe modernity was a mistake. Maybe progress itself is the problem." - Jason Crawford describing the rise of anti-progress sentiment in modern discourse.
• At 4:18 - "Progress builds on itself. Progress begets progress." - Explaining the fundamental feedback loop that causes progress to accelerate over time.
• At 11:23 - "The lesson of the relative slowdown in progress...is that progress is not automatic or inevitable...It depends on us. It depends on our choices." - Arguing that continued progress requires conscious effort and a belief in the future.

Takeaways

• Actively cultivate a belief in progress. Progress stalls when society loses faith in the future; fostering a culture that values innovation and problem-solving is crucial for driving humanity forward.
• Acknowledge and manage the downsides of innovation. Progress is often messy and creates new problems. Instead of stopping, the goal should be to anticipate these risks and actively work to mitigate them.
• Focus investment on foundational technologies. To break out of stagnation, it's vital to support breakthroughs in core areas like energy, manufacturing, and transportation, as these enable widespread progress across the entire economy, not just in the digital world.