The Election That Will Define Israel’s Future

Episode Overview

• Recorded on Thursday, October 22nd, New York Times journalists Rachel Abrams and Jerusalem Bureau Chief David Halbfinger examine the existential stakes of Israel's upcoming Tuesday election—the first held since the October 7th attacks (no external commercial sponsors, funding sources, or business ties are disclosed).
• The discussion contrasts Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's campaign with that of his leading challenger, former military Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, across a deeply divided electorate where polls show the two political blocs each holding roughly half the country, varying by a few points in either direction.
• Rather than focusing on the Palestinian conflict or Palestinian statehood, the campaign centers on internal divisions: the 2023 judicial overhaul, accountability for October 7th, and the burden of military service and taxation vs. ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions and subsidies.
• The episode also explores how prolonged conflict and domestic political turmoil have triggered a historic reversal in net Jewish migration out of Israel, concluding with a news roundup on the Russian release of American teacher Stephen James Hubbard and joint US-Israel plans to strike Iran after the midterm elections.

Key Concepts

• Internal Social Contract vs. External Perceptions: While the international community views Israel's election through the lens of the Gaza war, West Bank settler violence, and Palestinian statehood, the Palestinian conflict is barely discussed on the campaign trail. In fact, opposing a Palestinian state anytime soon is a non-starter that both the Israeli left and right agree on. For Israelis, the election is an existential battle over the fate of their democracy, judicial checks and balances, and what kind of Jewish state Israel will be.
• Pre-War Judicial Overhaul and Far-Right Influence: In early 2023, the Netanyahu government proposed a judicial overhaul to neuter the judiciary—the only real counterweight to the government and the Knesset—sparking protests by hundreds of thousands of people. Extremists in Netanyahu's coalition, such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, pushed to raze Gaza, favored continuing the military campaign over striking hostage deals, and are now seeking an electoral mandate to finish changing how Israel's government functions.
• Netanyahu's "Mr. Security" Defense and the "Sparta" Vision: Because security is the number 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 issue for Israelis, Netanyahu defends his post-October 7th record by pointing to the assassinations of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders (including Yahya Sinwar), the exploding pager stunt in Lebanon, and wars fought with Iran with US help (though Halbfinger hedges on those Iran wars: "You be the judge how successful those were"). Regarding October 7th warnings, Netanyahu claims he simply did not get the phone call early enough that day to act, and unlike almost every previous prime minister, he refuses to establish a National Commission of Inquiry. He attributes Israel's international isolation to antisemitism, European Muslim immigration, and Qatari money funding US professors, framing Israel as a "Sparta" that must produce its own weapons if faced with arms embargoes while relying heavily on the Trump administration.
• The Military Draft and the Fractured Burden of Sacrifice: Unlike historic wars that lasted 6 days in 1967 or a matter of weeks in the 2010s, the current war is "arguably still going," requiring reservists to serve 100 days at a time. Although the decades-long military draft exemption for the rapidly growing ultra-Orthodox population was formally overturned in 2024, ultra-Orthodox men are resisting service and being arrested as draft dodgers. Because Netanyahu relies on ultra-Orthodox parties for his coalition, he recently condemned draft evasion arrests and promised a non-coercive draft law—leaving the roughly half of the country that serves, works, and pays taxes to protect and subsidize a group that does none of those things.
• Gadi Eisenkot's Rise and Platform of Accountability: Leading the opposition is Gadi Eisenkot, who formed his party ("Yashar") a year ago. Born in Tiberias to Moroccan immigrants, Eisenkot is a Mizrahi Jew (who make up roughly half of Israeli Jews, yet have produced 0 prime ministers). Raised in Eilat, he was drafted at 18 into the Golani Brigade, rose to command it, and once turned down Defense Secretary Ehud Barak's recommendation to become Chief of Staff because he believed deputy Benny Gantz was next in line, before accepting the role in 2015 for a 4-year tenure. After joining the war cabinet on October 7, 2023, Eisenkot lost his youngest of 5 children (a 25-year-old reservist) and a nephew in Gaza in December 2023, and a second nephew almost a year later. Calling Netanyahu an "anti-leader" who was "shaking like a leaf" in the war cabinet, Eisenkot contrasts his family's sacrifice with Netanyahu's 2 sons—noting they did minor military service and one spent much of the last 3 years in Miami partly on taxpayer-funded security.
• Eisenkot's Security Strategy for Gaza and the West Bank: Having gone public with frustrations over hostage negotiations in January 2024 and quitting the government by June 2024, Eisenkot now campaigns on establishing a National Commission of Inquiry and enforcing the ultra-Orthodox draft. He wants to work with the Trump administration on Gaza reconstruction while finishing the job against Hamas politically or militarily. In the West Bank, he argues Israel must "stop digging" a hole of its own making by removing the military and civil administration from Smotrich's control, taking the police away from Ben-Gvir, and evacuating illegal settlements in Oslo Accords Palestinian areas—though he views a permanent Palestinian solution as "beyond the horizon and the curvature of the earth."
• Coalition Mechanics and Disqualification Maneuvers: In Israel, voters cast ballots for parties, and the president gives the party with the most seats the chance to form a government. While Halbfinger cautions that "the polls are all over the place" and an inconclusive outcome like those in 2019, 2020, and 2021 may be even more likely than a clear result, Eisenkot and his coalition currently hold a slight lead. If the election is inconclusive but the opposition holds a parliamentary majority, they are discussing electing a speaker to pass laws before forming a government—specifically targeting Netanyahu by banning candidates under criminal trial from running for prime minister or imposing term limits on anyone who has served 19 out of the last 30 years.
• US-Russia-Iran Geopolitical Developments: Outside the Israeli election, President Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff praised Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg following the release of 74-year-old American teacher Stephen James Hubbard, who was held for more than 4 years and sentenced to more than 6 years in a penal colony on what the State Department called fabricated mercenary charges. Additionally, cited US officials report that the US and Israel have developed plans to strike Iran's energy infrastructure and nuclear facilities after the US midterm elections.

Quotes

• At 2:54 - "For Israelis, it's really about the fate of their democracy, about what's going to become of a social contract that has been really torn in the past few years. It's about fairness in the sacrifice that is demanded of people in defending the country, and it's really about what kind of Jewish state this will be, and that's really what's on the ballot." - David Halbfinger explaining why domestic democratic and social issues, rather than the Palestinian conflict, define the election for Israeli voters.
• At 8:19 - "Do you know any other country the size of New Jersey capable of fighting a seven-front war? And for three years, seven fronts: Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iran, militias in Iraq, militias in Syria, Palestinian terrorists in Judea Samaria." - Benjamin Netanyahu defending his post-October 7th security credentials on the campaign trail.
• At 11:03 - "And so you have the half of the country more or less who serves and holds jobs and pays taxes protecting and subsidizing people who do none of those things." - David Halbfinger summarizing the core domestic resentment driving opposition voters over ultra-Orthodox military exemptions and financial subsidies.
• At 21:37 - "So he's promising responsible leadership, and he's calling Bibi an anti-leader, you know, he's saying that the way I was trained, when there's credit, you share it, when there's failure, you step forward and own it, and he's talking about sharing the burden of service and spreading it around and making sure that the ultra-Orthodox do their fair share of military service." - David Halbfinger outlining Gadi Eisenkot's campaign pitch and leadership philosophy.
• At 28:26 - "The net migration, which has always been into Israel, it's been growing with immigration of Jews from around the world, the last couple of years, more Jews have left than have arrived." - David Halbfinger highlighting the demographic impact of Israel's prolonged war and internal political anxiety.

Takeaways

• Separate international narratives from domestic realities when analyzing Israeli politics: evaluate the election not as a referendum on Palestinian statehood (which both blocs oppose in the near term), but as a contest over judicial independence, government accountability for October 7th, and whether ultra-Orthodox citizens will be required to share the military and economic burden.
• Watch post-election parliamentary maneuvers rather than just raw vote totals: because Israeli elections frequently result in deadlock, track whether Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc attempts to use a narrow Knesset majority to elect a speaker and pass criminal-trial bans or 19-of-30-year term limits to disqualify Netanyahu before a governing coalition is formed.
• Monitor demographic and geopolitical indicators following the vote: look to Israeli second-passport applications and net migration numbers to gauge whether the opposition bloc's fears about the country's future are accelerating an exodus, and watch for joint US-Israeli military action targeting Iranian nuclear and energy infrastructure following the US midterm elections.