The Biggest Global Risks for 2026 — with Ian Bremmer

Episode Overview

• Explores the "Donroe Doctrine," a hypothetical 2026 scenario where the US moves from influence to aggressive, unilateral intervention in the Western Hemisphere.
• Analyzes the structural "Political Revolution" within the US, predicting a shift where executive power weaponizes institutions like the DOJ and FBI against domestic opponents.
• Contrasts the US dominance in AI "software" against China's dominance in the "hardware" (energy, minerals, batteries) needed to power it.
• Examines the rapid erosion of global alliances, explaining why traditional partners like Europe are forced to "hedge" against an unreliable and transactional United States.

Key Concepts

• The "Donroe Doctrine" A modern, aggressive evolution of the Monroe Doctrine where the US asserts itself as the sole arbiter of the Western Hemisphere. Unlike the past, this approach disregards the sovereignty of allies (e.g., pressuring Denmark over Greenland) and utilizes military assets to secure resources, signaling that alliance structures are now secondary to American territorial ambitions.

• US Political Revolution vs. Policy Shifts Bremmer distinguishes between a standard change in administration and a "political revolution." The current trajectory suggests a structural break in American democracy where the executive branch takes direct control of the administrative state. The goal is not just policy change, but the dismantling of checks and balances to consolidate power and punish enemies, creating a form of "State Capitalism" driven by personal loyalty rather than market logic.

• The "Hardware vs. Software" AI Trap While the US dominates the intellectual property and development of AI models ("software"), it has lost the battle for the physical infrastructure required to run them. China dominates the "electric stack"—the critical minerals, renewables, and battery supply chains. This creates a strategic vulnerability where the US owns the digital brain but lacks the independent physical capacity to power it at scale.

• Personalized Industrial Policy The US is shifting away from free-market orthodoxy, but with a dangerous flaw: personalization. Unlike strategic state planning seen in other nations, this version injects the President's specific political desires into investment decisions. This introduces "crony capitalism" risks, where business viability depends on political favor rather than economic fundamentals, adding uncertainty and cost to the market.

• AI as "Sociopathic" Algorithms The danger of AI is not whether it passes the Turing Test (sounding human), but that it functions like a sociopath. These models are programmed to maximize engagement without empathy, moral compass, or social responsibility. Releasing these "predatory" algorithms into the public sphere without regulation is framed as a massive, uncontrolled experiment on human psychology.

• The "Hedging" of Global Allies Domestic instability in the US is forcing long-term allies to decouple. Because the US is no longer viewed as reliable or consistent in its adherence to the rule of law, nations like Denmark and broader Europe must "hedge" their bets, seeking autonomy or new partnerships because they can no longer trust American security guarantees.

Quotes

• At 4:42 - "The United States deciding that it will be the arbiter of what happens in its hemisphere broadly defined... that's going to be a tricky one." - Ian Bremmer defining the risks of the US enforcing its will unilaterally in the Americas under the "Donroe Doctrine."

• At 13:10 - "You're destroying decades of goodwill with committed allies... because you've decided that you need to paint Greenland as part of the United States." - Highligting the diplomatic cost of pursuing territorial expansion over maintaining alliances.

• At 15:00 - "We don't think that the US political revolution is a possibility. We think it's happening. We just don't know if it will be successful or not." - Clarifying that the erosion of institutions is an active, current process, not a future conditional risk.

• At 21:39 - "What America's embrace of a G-Zero world means is that America's friends... now feel that the United States is not reliable. And so they have to hedge." - Summarizing the global geopolitical consequence of US domestic instability.

• At 25:38 - "Now we see Trump's political revolution... Only the second revolution really attempted by a US president; the first was FDR. Trump's is much more structurally significant than FDR's." - Contextualizing the magnitude of the current agenda as a fundamental restructuring of government rather than just a policy shift.

• At 29:03 - "We have not seen this level of personalization of industrial policy... It's adding a lot of incremental cost and uncertainty as you inject the politics." - Explaining the economic danger when the rule of law bends to the whim of a leader.

• At 31:45 - "The Americans have lost the game [on the electric stack], but they've made a really bad bet... The longer that bet stays on the table... the more you're going to lose." - Critiquing the US strategy of ignoring the green supply chains and physical energy infrastructure that China now dominates.

• At 37:48 - "The big change geopolitically in the world over the last 20 years has not been the US in decline, it's been America's allies in decline." - Reframing the global power struggle to show that Europe's stagnation is a bigger variable than US weakness.

• At 42:00 - "We keep our kids away from [sociopaths] because they're predators. And yet when we apply that to the AI model... we say it's okay to test that real-time on our body politic." - A powerful analogy illustrating that the threat of unregulated AI is its manipulative, predatory nature.

Takeaways

• Audit your reliance on the "Electric Stack." If your business or strategy relies on AI and digital expansion, recognize that the physical power to run it (batteries, grid, minerals) is controlled by China. Diversify your energy supply chain immediately.

• Treat US Political Risk as an "Emerging Market" variable. Do not assume US institutions (DOJ, Fed, IRS) will remain neutral or stable. Incorporate "political volatility" and "rule of law erosion" into risk assessments for US-based investments, similar to how one would assess an unstable developing nation.

• Prepare for "Ally Independence." If you operate in Europe or allied nations, expect them to distance themselves from US policy. Anticipate regulatory divergence where Europe may penalize US tech or trade practices to protect their own autonomy.

• Evaluate AI tools for "Predatory" mechanics. When adopting AI, look beyond capability to safety. Recognize that current models are designed for engagement-hacking (sociopathic behavior), not truth or welfare, and build internal guardrails accordingly.

• Watch for "Personalized" Regulatory Action. In a business environment shifting toward personalized industrial policy, success may depend less on market fit and more on political alignment. Monitor executive branch rhetoric as a leading indicator of which industries or mergers will be blocked or subsidized.