“SR.MERCADO” NÃO PASSA DE UM ILUDIDO AFOBADO: AS VERDADES SOBRE AS AÇÕES BRASILEIRAS

Episode Overview

• Marcos Peixoto discusses how his fund achieved top performance in a challenging year by maintaining discipline and avoiding panic during the market downturn at the end of 2022.
• He details his investment philosophy, emphasizing the need for flexibility in Brazil's "mega-static" market, arguing against a rigid, dogmatic approach and for investing across all sectors, including commodities and state-owned enterprises.
• Peixoto explains his current portfolio positioning, including reducing exposure to utilities after their rally and maintaining positions in banks and low-income housing.
• The conversation explores his management style, which focuses on building a cohesive, low-turnover team by developing talent internally ("prata da casa").
• Peixoto shares his long-term perspective on investing, stressing the importance of a healthy team culture for rational decision-making and understanding that markets are cyclical.

Key Concepts

• Emotional Discipline: The fund's primary success factor for the year was not panicking during the market depression of late 2022, allowing them to benefit from their existing positions.
• Low-Risk Outperformance: Strong returns were generated by holding a defensive, liquid, and undervalued portfolio concentrated in sectors like utilities, banks, and healthcare.
• Portfolio Evolution: While utilities were a key driver of past returns, exposure is being reduced as the equity risk premium has compressed, making them less attractive.
• Investment Flexibility in Brazil: Peixoto argues that Brazil's "mega-static" stock market, with a limited number of dominant companies, makes a rigid, Buffett-style investment philosophy impractical.
• Valuation-Driven Approach: While quality is important, the right price is non-negotiable. This requires looking for opportunities across all sectors, including cyclical commodities and state-owned enterprises, which are often undervalued.
• Skepticism of Growth Narratives: Many "disruptive" and "growth" investment theses in Brazil have failed, reinforcing a more cautious, value-oriented approach.
• "Prata da Casa" Team Building: The philosophy of developing talent from within, rather than hiring external stars, fosters a more cohesive, aligned, and long-lasting team culture.
• Market Cyclicality: The market moves in cycles that quickly create and destroy "geniuses and villains," making a long-term perspective essential for navigating volatility.

Quotes

• At 2:08 - "Mas eu acho que o nosso grande acerto no ano, na verdade, foi não ter... panicado ali em dezembro do ano passado." - Marcos Peixoto identifies the key to their success: not reacting emotionally to the market downturn at the end of the previous year.
• At 4:08 - "Acho que o maior gerador de alfa individual do que a gente fez foi o setor de educação, especificamente a posição de Cogna." - Marcos Peixoto highlights the education sector, particularly the stock Cogna, as the single biggest contributor to their fund's outperformance.
• At 22:02 - "O equity risk premium ali, ele meio que comprimiu." - Peixoto explains why the utilities sector has become less attractive after its recent rally, noting that the risk premium over government bonds has significantly narrowed.
• At 28:52 - "Eu acho que o Brasil é um país que a gente tem aqui, infelizmente, uma bolsa mega estática, né?" - He describes the Brazilian stock market as having very little turnover in its main companies over 20 years, making it difficult to adhere to a rigid investment style.
• At 29:08 - "Então, eu acho que você ficar preso, né, num mantra único, numa bolsa que tem ali 150 empresas pra se investir... você vai ficar muito preso em poucas empresas." - Peixoto argues that the limited universe of investable stocks in Brazil requires flexibility, as being dogmatically attached to a single philosophy means missing opportunities.
• At 32:06 - "E nessa linha de time, assim, é fazer prata da casa." - Peixoto explains his management philosophy of developing talent internally ("homegrown talent") to foster a stronger and more aligned team culture.
• At 35:10 - "Eu acho que o clima [de trabalho], ele ajuda muito a você pensar melhor, eh, você ter mais paciência e tomar a decisão certa." - He emphasizes that a healthy, autonomous team environment is crucial for making rational and patient investment decisions.
• At 51:42 - "Cara, o mercado são ciclos. Você cria gênios e vilões muito rápidos, assim, no mercado." - Peixoto advises investors to maintain a long-term perspective and not be discouraged by bad years, reminding them of the market's cyclical nature.

Takeaways

• Mastering emotional control during market volatility is a greater source of alpha than complex financial modeling; the decision to not panic is often the most profitable one.
• Adapt your investment strategy to the realities of your specific market rather than rigidly adhering to a single, universal philosophy.
• To find the best opportunities, be willing to invest across all market sectors, including cyclical and state-owned companies, where value is often overlooked.
• Invest in building a stable, internally-developed team, as a positive and low-pressure culture is a direct input for better, more patient decision-making.
• Maintain a long-term perspective and ignore the short-term noise that anoints market "geniuses" and "villains," as conviction through cycles is the key to sustained success.