Scott Galloway’s Predictions for 2026 | Prof G Markets

Episode Overview

• The episode begins with lighthearted banter about podcast listening habits and a humorous critique of the overwhelmingly popular true crime genre.
• Scott Galloway presents his 2024 predictions, focusing on major shifts in technology and business, including Amazon's automation-driven margin expansion and the rise of the space industry led by SpaceX.
• He offers bearish predictions for Hollywood, which he believes is being irrevocably damaged by short-form video and AI, and dismisses the current hype around humanoid robots.
• Galloway critiques the forced sale of TikTok as a cronyism-fueled wealth transfer and debunks the "college is dead" narrative, arguing for the continued value of higher education.
• The discussion concludes with personal advice for young people to be financially cautious while taking greater risks in their relationships and personal lives.

Key Concepts

• Podcast Culture and Trends: The hosts discuss their personal listening habits, the immense popularity of true crime podcasts, and their amusement and confusion over the genre's formulaic appeal.
• Amazon's Retail Revolution: Galloway predicts Amazon will achieve massive margin expansion in its retail business by leveraging robotics and automation, comparing its logistical innovation to Ford's revolutionary assembly line.
• The Rise of the Space Industry: The space sector is identified as the "next big thing" poised to attract enormous capital, with SpaceX positioned as the dominant, near-monopolistic player due to its control over launch capabilities.
• TikTok's Forced Sale: The sale of TikTok's U.S. operations is framed not as a business deal, but as a politically motivated, cronyism-driven wealth transfer worth over a hundred billion dollars.
• Hollywood's Decline: Short-form video and AI are described as "meteors" striking Hollywood, leading to a pessimistic outlook on the future of traditional film and the movie theater industry.
• Technology Hype Cycles: The current excitement around humanoid robots is dismissed as a premature "weapon of mass distraction," akin to the over-hyped Segway or early self-driving cars.
• Prediction Markets: These new gambling-like financial instruments are labeled the "vice of the year," with concerns raised about their potential to enable massive insider trading and blur the lines with traditional financial markets.
• The "College is Dead" Myth: Galloway argues this narrative is a cope for parents whose children don't get into elite schools, citing data that shows a college degree remains a significant driver of economic and social well-being.

Quotes

• At 0:17 - "We're going to watch it backwards and it's actually, when you watch it backwards, a heartwarming story of a shark who helps people work through their disabilities." - Scott Galloway shares a joke about the movie Jaws to celebrate the podcast's listenership milestone.
• At 1:08 - "How does any woman ever be around any man or live in an apartment building or stay in her car when she parks after listening to crime podcasts?" - Scott Galloway questions the effect of true crime podcasts on listeners, particularly women, given their often terrifying content.
• At 22:45 - "Amazon is the Ford of the 21st century." - Galloway compares Amazon's mastery of robotics and logistics to Ford's revolutionary use of the assembly line, predicting it will lead to massive margin expansion in its retail business.
• At 28:12 - "This is probably the biggest hundred-billion-dollar giveaway, I think in recent memory, based on cronyism and a lack of... feckless, neutered, co-equal branch or not-equal other branches of Congress that should be blocking this deal." - Galloway harshly criticizes the forced sale of TikTok's U.S. operations, framing it as a politically-driven transfer of wealth.
• At 33:07 - "Sometimes it's darkest before it's pitch black. I think you're going to see more theaters closed." - In his prediction about Hollywood's decline, Galloway expresses deep pessimism about the future of the traditional film and movie theater industry.
• At 35:36 - "Humanoid robots are the self-driving cars of 2015... better yet, I should have said they're the Segway." - He dismisses the current hype around humanoid robots, comparing them to previously over-hyped technologies and suggesting they are a "weapon of mass distraction."
• At 41:14 - "If we are gambling, then I think you're basically calling the entire financial market gambling." - Quoting the CEO of Kalshi, Galloway highlights the blurring lines between new prediction markets and traditional financial speculation.
• At 48:00 - "Whenever I hear people saying that, I'm like, 'Oh, your kid fucked up on the ACT and you're trying to make yourself feel better that they're not getting into a good school.'" - He forcefully argues that the "college is dead" narrative is a cope for parents whose children can't get into elite schools.
• At 53:45 - "Take less risks with your money... and try to be much more risk-aggressive with your time and your relationships." - Galloway advises young people to be cautious financially but bolder in their personal and professional relationships, where the most meaningful rewards lie.

Takeaways

• Prioritize personal and relational risks over financial ones, as the former often yield more significant and meaningful life rewards.
• Critically evaluate technology hype cycles; many innovations, like humanoid robots, may be distractions rather than transformative platforms in their early stages.
• Recognize that major tech industry shifts, such as the TikTok sale, are often driven more by geopolitics and cronyism than by pure market forces.
• Despite popular narratives questioning its value, a college degree remains a powerful tool for long-term economic security and social mobility.
• Pay attention to sectors attracting vast amounts of "cheap capital," such as the space industry, as they often signal the next major platforms for innovation and investment.