O MERCADO ESTÁ SUBESTIMANDO O TAMANHO DO CHOQUE DO BRASIL EM 2026 | Risco Brasil #22

Episode Overview

• This episode analyzes the complex investment landscape leading up to the 2026 Brazilian elections, contrasting the current fragile fiscal environment with previous cycles (2018, 2022).
• The discussion explores the "K-shaped" global economy, where divergence between winners (AI, US tech, resilient sectors) and losers (China-exposed industries, passive indices) is widening.
• The speakers (Dalia Capital) outline a strategy for navigating uncertainty using "convexity" (options) and a specific asset allocation mix of Brazilian "carry" (high yield) and US growth.

Key Concepts

• "Fat Tail" Risk Distribution: In binary political events (like polarized elections), market outcomes rarely land in the middle. They tend to be extreme (massive rally or massive crash). Therefore, portfolios should be structured not to predict the winner (50/50 odds), but to profit from the extreme volatility at the "tails" of the probability curve.

• The "K-Shaped" Divergence: The global economy is no longer moving in unison. We see a "K" formation where some sectors (AI, Utilities) skyrocket while others (Retail, China-exposed manufacturing) plummet. This environment punishes passive index investing and rewards active stock picking and sector selection.

• Convexity via Options: When uncertainty is high but current market volatility is low (cheap), investors can use options to create "convexity." This involves paying a small, fixed premium for a derivative that can multiply 5x-10x in value if a "fat tail" event occurs, offsetting losses in the rest of the portfolio.

• The Global Uncertainty Triad: Traditional forecasting models are breaking down due to three unpredictable forces: the productivity disruption of Artificial Intelligence, the volatility of US Politics (specifically regarding Trump), and the economic irrationality of China (dumping cheap goods globally).

• The "Dollar Smile" Theory: The US Dollar strengthens in two opposing scenarios: extreme global crisis (safety) or extreme US growth (capital magnet). The "bottom" of the smile—where the Dollar weakens and Emerging Markets like Brazil perform best—only happens when the US economy is mediocre ("muddling through") while the rest of the world grows faster.

• Energy Abundance vs. Transmission Bottlenecks: While AI demand for energy is massive, the long-term trend is deflationary (energy abundance) due to renewables and efficiency. However, in the short term, there is a bottleneck in infrastructure (transmission lines, transformers) rather than the fuel source itself.

• Gold's Decoupling: Gold prices have stopped correlating with real interest rates (historically, high rates hurt gold). Gold is now trading on geopolitical fear and central bank diversification away from the US Dollar/Sanctions, effectively becoming a hedge against the financial system rather than an inflation hedge.

Quotes

• At 0:08:45 - "We enter a fiscal and economic situation [in 2026] that is worse than we were in previous elections... and a world situation that is much more controversial." - Contextualizing why the 2026 election cycle carries more fundamental risk than 2018 or 2022.

• At 0:09:16 - "In a situation like this... the results, the tails, are much larger. If it's a scenario the market views as positive, the upside potential is much higher. If it's a negative scenario, the downside potential is much greater too." - Explaining the binary nature of current political risks.

• At 0:15:20 - "Quantifying 50-50, 60-40 now, 10 months from the election, is really very difficult... The market ends up adjusting because quantifying probability is hard. So we prefer to maintain a positioning we are comfortable with." - On the futility of trying to predict election outcomes too early.

• At 0:17:00 - "If the market moves 30-40% in one direction, the premium I am allocated [in options] multiplies by 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 times." - Describing the mathematical advantage of using convex option strategies.

• At 0:19:13 - "If you think it's the end of Brazil if this government continues, you shouldn't hold any Brazil assets. You should be in dollars and with a one-way ticket to somewhere else." - A reality check that total pessimism requires exiting the country, not just hedging.

• At 0:38:35 - "One thing that began to be very common in our daily life is seeing things in a 'K'. Economists like to use this analogy that there are economic data moving in different directions." - Defining the core framework for the current fragmented economy.

• At 0:39:58 - "The world is actually very difficult because you have three very powerful things happening... Artificial Intelligence... US Political Unpredictability... and Chinese Economic Irrationality." - Identifying the three pillars that make forecasting impossible.

• At 0:43:40 - "In the end, a world in a 'K' shape is much harder to predict than a world that is not in a 'K', a world that is more linear." - Why traditional linear economic models are failing investors right now.

• At 0:45:50 - "It is difficult to say that 'Artificial Intelligence is going to work,' 'I am sure Gold is going to $10,000'... We have little certainty about things here." - Highlighting the need for resilience over specific bets.

• At 0:49:50 - "If you want to wait for a trend change every time, to buy what was left behind, it might be that you lose 1, 2, 3 years and the scenario doesn't change." - Warning against trying to time the bottom of "loser" sectors in a K-shaped recovery.

• At 0:58:05 - "A world where you have energy abundance... and the cost of processing for computers collapses vertiginously... is a world that manages to grow with a very low level of inflation." - The optimistic long-term view on productivity and deflation.

• At 1:02:27 - "It's not that the energy molecule isn't there. We have to transform that energy molecule into electricity to deliver it to data centers... this isn't something that happens in six months." - Clarifying the difference between energy supply and energy infrastructure.

• At 1:03:36 - "If you have energy prices coming down, inflationary pressure in the world is lower. And that... has a very big impact on Trump's voters." - Connecting US political incentives to the likelihood of lower oil prices.

• At 1:17:21 - "The Dollar is a great sucker of assets... If the US is doing well, it sucks money from the rest of the world and only it does well." - Explaining the mechanism of the "Dollar Smile" and capital flight.

• At 1:22:21 - "There came a moment where you say: 'Damn, it decoupled.' The moment it decouples, it's the sensation... that you start flying blind." - On the difficulty of trading Gold when it stops following economic logic.

• At 1:26:21 - "Commodity producing companies have performed better than the commodity prices themselves... the way to stock up on copper isn't buying physical copper, but buying a copper producer." - Identifying an equity arbitrage opportunity over raw materials.

Takeaways

• Buy portfolio protection (options) now while implied volatility is low, rather than waiting for election noise to spike prices.
• Avoid passive indexing in Brazil; the "K-shaped" economy demands active selection of sectors that are working vs. those that are broken.
• Maintain exposure to Brazilian assets to capture the high "carry" (interest/yield), but do not bet the house on domestic growth.
• Monitor the "Tarcísio Factor" (Governor of São Paulo) specifically; his political viability is a direct positive catalyst for asset prices.
• Avoid Brazilian sectors that compete directly with Chinese imports, as "dumping" is likely to continue hurting their margins.
• Focus on defensive domestic sectors like Utilities and Banks that are resilient to high interest rates.
• Treat Gold as a geopolitical hedge against system instability, not as a standard play on interest rates.
• Consider investing in commodity producers (companies) rather than the commodities themselves to capture operational leverage.
• Watch US economic growth closely: if the US accelerates significantly, expect a stronger Dollar to drain liquidity from emerging markets like Brazil.
• Construct a "barbell" portfolio: combine high-yield Brazilian fixed income/equities with US growth exposure to hedge against domestic stagnation.