O JEITO DE INVESTIR DE UM DOS MAIORES GANHADORES DA BOLSA EM 2025 | Market Makers #309

Episode Overview

• The Psychology of High Performance Investing: This episode explores how successful fund managers blend deep technical analysis with the emotional resilience ("stomach") required to bet against market consensus and endure volatility.
• Strategic Portfolio Construction: The conversation details how to build a resilient portfolio by treating stocks as long-term business partnerships, using "real estate psychology" to ignore daily noise, and balancing exposure between domestic and export-driven sectors.
• The Danger of Leverage and Governance: A central theme is the destructive power of corporate debt and poor governance, illustrated through case studies like Bayer, Tupy, and Vivara, showing why "cheap" stocks can often be value traps.
• The Evolution from Analyst to Partner: The dialogue traces the professional journey of an investor, emphasizing that moving from stock picking to portfolio management requires expanding one's vision to include business building, intellectual humility, and macro-awareness.

Key Concepts

• The "Real Estate Psychology" in Equities Investors often panic when stock prices drop because they have daily liquidity. To succeed, one must adopt the mindset of a real estate owner: you wouldn't sell your house just because a neighbor offered 30% less today. By viewing stocks as illiquid partnerships in real businesses, investors can ignore short-term volatility and let the company's internal compounding work over time.

• Thesis Flexibility and the "Broken Thesis" High conviction is necessary, but it must not turn into stubbornness. The decision to sell is often harder than the decision to buy. If the structural pillar of a thesis changes—such as a deterioration in governance, a loss of trust in management, or a permanent shift in the macro environment—the position must be liquidated immediately, regardless of the loss or previous research committed.

• The Leverage Trap and Optionality In high-interest environments like Brazil, corporate debt is a suffocating force. Highly leveraged companies lose "optionality"—the ability to seize new opportunities, make acquisitions, or pivot during crises (e.g., Bayer missing the COVID vaccine opportunity due to Monsanto debt). Lean, cash-rich companies can play offense when others are playing defense, creating long-term value.

• Governance as the Ultimate Filter Valuation is secondary to governance. A stock trading at a low multiple (e.g., 6x earnings) is often a trap if the management cannot be trusted. "Green flags" include management teams that are already wealthy but keep working for legacy, and heavy insider buying. "Red flags" include confusing financial reporting, ill-timed buybacks, and political interference.

• Diversification via Correlation, Not Quantity True diversification isn't about owning 50 stocks; it's about owning businesses that react differently to economic stimuli. A resilient portfolio balances distinct exposures—such as dollar-sensitive exporters (like pulp/paper) against domestic consumption plays (like utilities or agriculture)—so that if one macro variable shifts, the entire portfolio doesn't collapse.

• The Three Layers of Valuation To avoid overpaying, investors should value companies in three stages:

  1. Asset Value: The baseline worth of tangible assets.
  2. Earnings Power Value (EPV): The value of current cash flows if growth stopped today (viewing the stock as a bond).
  3. Franchise Value: The premium paid for future growth. Great investments are often found when the market price ignores the Franchise Value, offering growth for free.

Quotes

• At 0:06:18 - "If the CFO doesn't want to buy back shares, why should I, the manager, buy them?" - Highlights the importance of insider alignment; if executives won't invest in their own dip, you shouldn't either.
• At 0:11:50 - "When the fundamental changes, we have to change our minds. We can't stay in love with the same opinion we had before." - Emphasizing the discipline required to sell a beloved stock when the thesis breaks.
• At 0:12:47 - "When you invest in the equity of a company, you are investing in projects often with high rates of return." - Explaining why equities historically outperform fixed income: they compound internal capital.
• At 0:13:46 - "Why does it seem like when you invest in real estate you don't lose money? Because time works in your favor... It's not on the stock exchange, so you don't get distressed." - A crucial analogy for adopting the right psychological timeframe for stocks.
• At 0:24:00 - "[Stanley Druckenmiller] prefers an analyst who tells him a company at 40x earnings is cheap over one who says a company at 10x earnings is cheap." - Teaching that high quality and growth can justify high multiples, while low multiples often signal traps.
• At 0:26:39 - "Highly leveraged companies... lose opportunities. Especially in Brazil where interest rates are 15%, you are always running to pay debt." - Explaining how debt paralyzes a company's strategic ability to act.
• At 0:28:54 - "Bayer... missed the opportunity to lead in vaccine development because it lacked the financial agility to pivot." - A specific example of the opportunity cost of leverage.
• At 0:31:08 - "The single most important characteristic for long-term success is simply time... 'Time in the market' ends up being more important than 'market timing'." - Reinforcing that duration beats prediction.
• At 0:34:00 - "The market likes to perpetuate things. When it's very good, it perpetuates that it will be good forever, and when it's very bad, it perpetuates that it will be bad forever." - Explaining the cyclical psychology that creates buy/sell opportunities.
• At 0:45:00 - "Vivara may not pass on prices... who doesn't have the inventory that Vivara has, won't be able to practice a cheaper price." - Illustrating how vertical integration and inventory can be a competitive moat during inflation.
• At 0:52:35 - "Improving your business understanding capacity... is a great advantage. It's knowledge that if you don't flush the toilet, it goes away." - Highlighting that research is intellectual capital that accumulates over a career.
• At 1:03:07 - "We won't stick with this theory that 'no, it's a state-owned stock, we won't touch it'... [But] when something happens that violates our principles... we stopped trusting the company." - Defining the boundary between open-mindedness and strict governance standards.
• At 1:06:49 - "If you compete with someone who is intelligent and passionate about what they do, the job becomes much harder for those against you." - Identifying passion as a structural edge in the finance industry.
• At 1:12:06 - "Why would I have cash in the portfolio if I can have a position that I view today as a turbocharged fixed income?" - Describing event-driven arbitrage as a superior alternative to holding cash.
• At 1:12:50 - "You prefer someone who has a high IQ who thinks his IQ is higher than he believes, or do you prefer a person who has a medium IQ... who believes his IQ is low? I prefer this second one." - Valuing intellectual humility over raw intelligence.
• At 1:35:56 - "It’s like a manager who has several analysts; he has a machine gun, he can keep spraying. You have a sniper rifle... You have to be very precise." - Contrasting the strategy of small boutique funds vs. large institutions.
• At 1:49:09 - "For one to stay above the average, the other has to be below... It’s less about losing money and more about getting the thesis right." - Framing the market as a zero-sum intellectual competition.
• At 1:52:19 - "There is nothing more pleasurable than being in a room saying something and everyone agrees with you. But there is nothing more useless." - Warning against the comfort of consensus; profit comes from disagreement.
• At 1:54:33 - "Maybe you have to know how to suffer a little more than the average. You can’t get so scared with a stock falling 20, 25, 30%." - Identifying "suffering capacity" as a key investor trait.
• At 2:05:43 - "You are not just learning to be an analyst... I am learning to create a company. Besides being an analyst... we are entrepreneurs." - The final evolution of the investor into a business builder.

Takeaways

• Adopt the "Illiquidity Mindset": Mentally lock up your stock investments for 5-10 years. Do not sell a high-quality asset just because the daily price quote has dropped; only sell if the business quality deteriorates.
• Filter for Low Leverage: Avoid companies with high debt (Net Debt/EBITDA > 3x), especially in high-interest rate environments. Look for cash-rich companies that can acquire competitors or buy back stock during downturns.
• Watch the Insider Transactions: Use insider buying as a major signal. If the CEO or controlling shareholders are buying aggressively, it is often the most reliable indicator of undervaluation.
• Seek Vertical Integration as an Inflation Hedge: In inflationary times, prioritize companies that control their entire supply chain (like Vivara). They can use legacy inventory to undercut competitors and gain market share.
• Be a "Sniper," Not a "Machine Gun": If you are an individual or small investor, don't try to cover the whole market. Focus deeply on a few high-conviction ideas where you have an information or analytical edge.
• Embrace Intellectual Humility: Actively seek out the "bear case" for your investments. Listen to short-sellers and opposing views without ego to test the strength of your thesis.
• Use M&A as a Cash Substitute: Instead of holding cash yielding standard rates, look for low-risk "event-driven" situations (like takeover bids) that offer higher returns with similar safety profiles.
• Don't Marry Your Stocks: Be ruthless about selling. If the management changes for the worse or the macro thesis breaks (as with Tupy), exit the position immediately, even if it means taking a loss.
• Look for "Uncomfortable" Bets: Alpha is generated by being right when the consensus is wrong. Be willing to hold positions that others mock or ignore (like unsexy industrial companies) if the fundamentals support it.
• Differentiate Between "Cheap" and "Value": Do not buy a stock just because it has a low P/E ratio. Ensure the low multiple isn't a signal of broken governance or a dying business model.
• Build a "Self-Hedging" Portfolio: Don't just pick "good stocks." Ensure your portfolio holds companies that benefit from different economic cycles (e.g., some that win when the dollar rises, some that win when the domestic economy booms).
• Focus on Management Alignment: Invest in companies run by people who are already rich but continue to work because they are building a legacy. Avoid management teams that are incentivized by short-term stock price targets.