O FUTURO DO BITCOIN PODE SE PIOR DO QUE VOCÊ IMAGINA | Crypto Never Sleeps #39

Episode Overview

• A critical re-evaluation of the Bitcoin narrative: This episode challenges the popular view of Bitcoin as "digital gold" or a perfect store of value, arguing it has failed its original purpose as peer-to-peer cash and now relies primarily on speculation and brand recognition.
• The case for tangible assets over digital code: The discussion contrasts the "technological" nature of crypto (which faces obsolescence and competition) with the "commodity" nature of gold and silver (which have industrial floors and thousands of years of history).
• Existential threats to the crypto ecosystem: The conversation explores severe risks often ignored by enthusiasts, including the "tainted coin" fungibility problem, the centralization of mining, and the looming threat of quantum computing breaking current encryption.
• The macroeconomic endgame: The guest outlines a "crisis of all crises"—a deflationary collapse where liquidity dries up, financial assets (including crypto) plummet, and capital flees to physical survival assets like precious metals and productive land.

Key Concepts

1. The "Industrial Floor" vs. Speculative Value A fundamental economic distinction is drawn between commodities and Bitcoin. Commodities like gold, silver, and oil have an "industrial floor"—a minimum value derived from their necessity in electronics, jewelry, or energy. Even if investors stop trading them, they are still consumed. Bitcoin, conversely, lacks non-monetary utility. Its value is purely speculative, relying on the "Greater Fool Theory" (selling to someone else for a higher price). Without an industrial floor, its price has no theoretical bottom in a crisis.

2. The Divergence from "Peer-to-Peer Cash" Bitcoin has drifted significantly from Satoshi Nakamoto's original white paper. Designed as decentralized currency, technical limitations (slow speeds, high costs) forced a narrative pivot to "Store of Value." The guest argues this rebranding masks a technological failure. Furthermore, Bitcoin fails the test of fungibility—a core tenet of money where one unit equals another. Because the blockchain is transparent, "tainted" coins (linked to crime) can be blacklisted, making them less valuable than "clean" coins, effectively breaking its status as sound money.

3. The Quantum Threat: Mining Dominance, Not Just Hacking While many fear quantum computers will hack wallets, the more immediate threat is Grover's Algorithm applied to mining. Quantum computers could solve the "Proof of Work" puzzles exponentially faster than classical computers. If a single entity (like a state government) achieves quantum supremacy, they could dominate the hashrate, execute a 51% attack, and "re-org" the chain. This would allow them to reverse transactions and destroy the ledger's immutability, effectively nationalizing or killing the network.

4. "Synthetic" Bitcoin and Institutional Capture The entry of Wall Street (BlackRock, ETFs) is often celebrated as adoption, but it may be a form of capture. Financial institutions create "paper Bitcoin" (derivatives, futures) that exceeds the actual supply of 21 million coins. This "synthetic" supply suppresses price discovery. Additionally, the ecosystem relies heavily on stablecoins like Tether, which are massive buyers of US Treasury bonds. Paradoxically, buying Bitcoin often indirectly finances the US debt, integrating crypto into the very fiat system it claims to oppose.

5. The Tech vs. Commodity Cycle The guest introduces an investment framework distinguishing Technology (deflationary/exponential) from Commodities (linear/finite). Technology naturally becomes cheaper and better over time (making old tech obsolete), whereas commodities become harder and more expensive to extract. The argument is that we are exiting a tech-dominant cycle and entering a commodity-dominant cycle. In this view, Bitcoin is "tech" (vulnerable to obsolescence), while silver is a "strategic commodity" essential for the green energy and AI revolutions.

6. Tokenization vs. Crypto Speculation A distinction is made between "crypto" (speculative coins) and "tokenization" (blockchain technology). While the guest is bearish on most coins, they are bullish on tokenizing Real-World Assets (RWAs). Tokenization solves the liquidity problem of physical assets, allowing for fractional ownership and instant settlement of stocks, real estate, or gold, potentially bridging the gap between hard money stability and digital speed.

Quotes

• At 0:01:40 - "Eu acho que é uma tulipa digital... acho que a tulipa ainda tem mais utilidade que o Bitcoin." - Comparing Bitcoin to the 17th-century tulip mania, noting that even the flower had more physical utility than digital code.
• At 0:08:05 - "Então assim, pro que ele se propõe, eu acho que ele falhou em tudo. Só tá onde tá porque foi a primeira a dar certo." - Arguing Bitcoin's dominance is due to "First Mover Advantage" rather than technological success.
• At 0:08:29 - "Eu acredito hoje que existem muito mais bitcoins sintéticos sendo vendidos por aí do que a quantidade fixa de bitcoins." - Highlighting how financial derivatives dilute Bitcoin's famous "absolute scarcity."
• At 0:13:40 - "O único uso de um Bitcoin é tu se desfazer dele... Ele não pode ser consumido como uma mercadoria." - The core economic critique: Bitcoin has no use other than being sold.
• At 0:17:50 - "O ouro tem a quantidade de prótons dele lá e se tu mudar vira outra coisa... O Bitcoin daqui 30, 40 anos pode se tornar uma coisa totalmente diferente." - Contrasting physical immutability (gold) with code immutability (software that can be updated or forked).
• At 0:24:19 - "O Bitcoin só sobra a demanda especulativa. Ele não serve como moeda... ele não serve como um bem industrial... e na demanda especulativa ele tá competindo com milhares de altcoins." - Explaining why Bitcoin is vulnerable: it has no industrial safety net and faces infinite competition.
• At 0:27:54 - "A parte que vai dar problema com computador quântico é a mineração... O computador quântico ele tem uma capacidade muito absurda de computar dados." - Shifting the quantum threat focus from "hacked wallets" to "mining dominance."
• At 0:31:34 - "Quando o computador quântico minera todos esses blocos, ele consegue fazer o ataque de 51%, que é um ataque catastrófico. Porque você permite o gasto duplo." - Defining the failure state: if the chain can be rewritten, the currency is dead.
• At 0:33:43 - "Quando você compra Bitcoin, você está financiando a dívida americana. Porque boa parte da liquidez do Bitcoin vem do Tether... e o Tether compra dívida americana." - The irony that "anti-system" crypto investors are propping up the US Dollar.
• At 0:40:12 - "A criptografia, ela é uma arma de guerra. Inclusive os Estados Unidos caracteriza criptografia... como uma munição." - Reminding viewers that crypto originated in a field classified as military munitions.
• At 0:54:53 - "Imagine uma linha do tempo em que o Michael Saylor não tivesse nascido... O Bitcoin teria batido 126 mil dólares? Não teria." - Highlighting the market's fragility and dependence on single "whales" like MicroStrategy.
• At 0:57:09 - "Eu estou esperando uma crise financeira muito maior do que foi 2020, 2008... vai parecer uma brincadeira de criança." - Predicting a deflationary crash that combines elements of 1929, 2000, and 2008.
• At 1:03:57 - "Existem hoje muitas soluções em busca de um problema. É o que eu definiria a maior parte do mercado cripto." - Critiquing the industry for building complex tech that solves no real-world issues.
• At 1:08:50 - "Tecnologia é exponencial. Commodity, linear." - The investment thesis: avoid assets that get cheaper/better (tech) and buy assets that get harder to find (commodities).
• At 1:24:21 - "JP Morgan said that 'Gold and silver are money, everything else is credit.' ... I believe that in the technological, electrified world, silver can become recognized as money again." - Arguing for a return to tangible money in a digital age.
• At 1:26:19 - "This year, 2026, we have the largest maturity of Treasury securities in history. There are 9.5 trillion dollars that they will have to roll over." - Identifying the "debt wall" that forces money printing and currency devaluation.
• At 1:32:04 - "I like credit, but I don't like usury... It is a system that enslaves people. There is a way to create a debt that you can never pay." - A moral critique of the debt-based fiat system.
• At 1:39:30 - "Sell Bitcoin, which is technology, and buy commodities." - The ultimate contrarian trade advice for the coming cycle.
• At 1:42:22 - "The volume of sales [shorts] was greater than what the entire exchange has in silver... How can you sell more than what you have in your own exchange? That is fraud." - Exposing the "paper market" manipulation of precious metal prices.

Takeaways

• Pivot from Tech to Commodities: Consider rebalancing portfolios away from purely technological assets (which naturally deflate) toward finite commodities like silver and gold, which are entering a scarcity cycle.
• Understand "Industrial Floors": When evaluating an asset, ask "If trading stopped tomorrow, can this still be used?" If the answer is no, recognize the asset is purely speculative and carries higher risk.
• Beware of "Paper" Assets: Recognize the difference between owning an asset (physical gold/silver) and owning a claim on an asset (ETFs, futures). In a systemic crisis, paper claims may fail; prioritize physical possession where possible.
• Monitor the Quantum Threat: Do not dismiss quantum computing as sci-fi; specifically watch for advancements in Grover's Algorithm, as this directly threatens Proof-of-Work mining mechanisms.
• Prepare for Deflation, Not Just Inflation: While inflation is the common fear, prepare for a "liquidity crunch" where asset prices crash. Holding liquid assets (cash or gold) allows you to buy real assets cheaply during a crash.
• Invest in Silver for Strategic Reasons: View silver not just as "poor man's gold," but as an essential industrial material for solar panels and AI chips that is facing a structural supply deficit.
• Scrutinize "Decentralization" Claims: Be skeptical of crypto projects that claim to be decentralized but have small development teams, centralized mining pools, or heavy reliance on regulated stablecoins like USDT.
• Focus on Tokenization of RWAs: Look for investment opportunities in the infrastructure of tokenization (putting stocks/real estate on chain) rather than speculating on meme coins or governance tokens.
• Understand the "Tainted Coin" Risk: If holding crypto, understand that privacy is not guaranteed. "Clean" history matters; coins with links to illicit activity may become illiquid or confiscated.
• Watch the Debt Maturity Wall: Keep an eye on US Treasury rollover dates (specifically around 2026). Large debt maturities often force central banks to print money, which is a key signal to hold hard assets.
• Build Resilience Beyond Finance: "Smart money" is preparing for survival. Beyond portfolio allocation, consider investing in tangible resilience: food security, energy independence, and physical land.