ISENTAS, ELÉTRICAS E BANCOS EM ALTA: O QUE ESPERAR PARA 2026 | Carteiros do Condado

Episode Overview

• A comprehensive review of the 2025 financial markets, characterized by extreme volatility and multiple distinct phases throughout the year.
• An in-depth analysis of key asset classes, including the frenzy in tax-exempt credit and the significant performance dispersion within multi-market funds.
• A discussion on the strategies of top-performing fund managers, emphasizing the advantage of global diversification, tactical trading, and specialized sector bets.
• An examination of the high opportunity cost created by attractive fixed-income returns and a look ahead at the expected volatility of the upcoming election year.

Key Concepts

• Market Volatility of 2025: Described as "five years in one," the year featured several distinct market phases, with volatility expected to intensify in the upcoming election year.
• Tax-Exempt Credit Market: This was a standout asset class, experiencing a "V-shaped" movement after a proposed provisional measure (MP) threatened its tax benefits, leading to a temporary market frenzy and subsequent reversal.
• Multi-Market Fund Performance: The category was marked by high dispersion. While top-quartile funds generated significant alpha, the median fund underperformed the CDI benchmark, highlighting the difficulty of fund selection.
• Geographic Specialization in Brazil: Rio de Janeiro has solidified its position as the hub for risk-asset management (equities, multi-markets), whereas São Paulo remains the primary center for fixed-income expertise.
• High Opportunity Cost from Fixed Income: The availability of high, low-risk, and often tax-exempt returns (e.g., NTN-B bonds offering IPCA + 7%) creates immense pressure on risk-asset managers to deliver superior performance to justify their fees.
• Strategies of Top Performers: Successful funds employed diverse strategies, including global macro trades (Kapitalo), high-conviction bets in equities and commodities (Vista), and relative value trades across various asset classes.
• The "Silent Bull Market": While the broader Ibovespa index performance was modest, specific sectors like utilities and banks experienced massive outperformance, rewarding specialized long-only funds.
• Global vs. Domestic Management: Managers with global expertise and offshore infrastructure demonstrated a key advantage, as they could seek opportunities worldwide (e.g., European gas, New Zealand interest rates) while domestic-focused managers faced higher volatility and fewer options.

Quotes

• At 0:21 - "Esmiuçar a indústria financeira muito pelo espectro dos fundos de investimento, das gestoras, dos investidores profissionais." - Lucas Collazo explains the core objective of the podcast.
• At 2:54 - "Não foi 50 anos em cinco, né? Foi cinco anos em um, né?" - Luiz Felippo describes the intense volatility and the multiple distinct market phases experienced within the year 2025.
• At 4:18 - "Eu geralmente fatio essa discussão entre discussões de estrutura e discussões de processo." - Luiz Felippo explains his fundamental framework for analyzing and selecting asset management firms.
• At 9:07 - "Se fosse para destacar mais uma vez uma classe no ano de 2025... é a classe dos ativos isentos." - Davi Fontenele introduces tax-exempt credit assets as one of the major highlights of the year's market performance.
• At 12:44 - "É você diversificar entre vários copinhos, de tal forma que eu não acabo não ficando com um copinho até o talo." - Luiz Felippo uses an analogy to explain XP's strategy of managing capacity by diversifying across multiple managers.
• At 27:15 - "Essa é a dinâmica mais volátil que tem, a gente tem visto para os multimercados, principalmente os fundos de estratégia macro, tá?" - The speaker explains that macro strategy funds are the main driver of the high volatility observed in the multi-market fund category.
• At 27:46 - "O mês de dezembro é só uma palhinha do que a gente vai ver... de maneira mais intensa ao longo do próximo ano, já falando agora de perspectivas... que é ano eleitoral, né?" - The speaker forecasts that the market volatility seen in December is just a small taste of what is expected in the upcoming election year.
• At 28:41 - "Para as classes de risco ficou maior do que São Paulo, né? Então, se pegar lá as gestoras de ações... e no Rio ficam os times de risco." - Describing the geographical concentration of asset management in Brazil, where Rio de Janeiro has become the hub for managers focused on higher-risk assets.
• At 35:38 - "O consenso é NTN-B. Consenso. De gestores de ações para multimercado, todo mundo consensualiza que a NTN-B é o melhor ativo do Brasil." - The speaker emphasizes the strong agreement among fund managers that NTN-B government bonds are currently the most attractive investment in Brazil.
• At 45:20 - "Você tem 50% [dos fundos] que tá abaixo do CDI, né? Então assim, você tem uma galera indo bem pra caramba e você tem uma massa grande que não tá batendo o CDI." - Analyzing a performance table, the speaker points out the significant dispersion in returns, where half of the multi-market funds are underperforming the benchmark CDI.
• At 49:32 - "Você não está concorrendo contra o CDI. Você está concorrendo contra o IPCA + 7 isento." - Highlighting the major challenge for fund managers, who must compete not just with the CDI but with highly attractive, tax-exempt fixed-income returns.
• At 61:09 - "Eu vou operar, sei lá, gás na Europa, entendeu? Eu vou operar juro na Nova Zelândia, entendeu? Eu vou operar na África do Sul." - The speaker explains that managers with global capabilities will look for opportunities elsewhere instead of being confined to the Brazilian market.
• At 62:35 - "Esse escopo de atuação macro global, com uma linha muito de trading, de operações mais táticas, de horizonte um pouco mais curto do que a média do mercado." - Describing the successful investment style of the Kapitalo K10 fund.
• At 69:37 - "O fundo que no ano sobe 20, quase 24%, com uma vol de 26%, né? Um fundo mais apimentado do que os outros que a gente falou aqui." - Characterizing the high-risk, high-return profile of the Vista Multi-Estratégia fund.
• At 75:33 - "A gente já narrou um tanto a dinâmica desse mercado ao longo do ano. Acho que em termos de histórias de 2025, trago aqui num gráfico... um gráfico de retorno dos índices setoriais." - Introducing the concept of a "silent bull market" in Brazil, where specific sectors significantly outperformed the broader index.
• At 97:02 - "É muito interessante a galera que dorme 6 horas por noite, que, né, é vários de nós aqui... Se você expandir essas 6 horas por 10 dias, no décimo dia, a taxa de erro também é 400%." - Sharing a key insight from the book Why We Sleep about the cumulative negative effect of sleep deprivation on performance.

Takeaways

• Prepare for continued high market volatility, particularly as the upcoming election year is expected to introduce even more uncertainty.
• Fund selection is paramount; the wide dispersion in multi-market fund returns means that choosing the right manager is more important than just allocating to the asset class.
• Evaluate actively managed funds against the high benchmark of readily available, low-risk government bonds like NTN-Bs to ensure you are being compensated for the risk.
• Prioritize investing with fund managers who have a global mandate and offshore infrastructure, as they possess more tools to navigate domestic market turmoil.
• Look beyond broad market indices like the Ibovespa to identify opportunities, as "silent bull markets" can occur in specific sectors even when the overall market is flat.
• Recognize that regulatory risks can create significant, short-term market dislocations and tactical opportunities, as seen with the tax-exempt asset frenzy.
• Diversify your portfolio across different sources of alpha, as top-performing funds often generate returns from less common markets like commodities.
• When allocating capital to popular strategies, assess how managers and platforms handle capacity to avoid potential performance degradation from large inflows.
• Carefully assess the risk profile of each fund, understanding that higher-return vehicles are often "spicier" and come with significantly higher volatility.
• Do not underestimate the impact of personal habits on investment performance; chronic sleep deprivation severely impairs decision-making capabilities.