Every major leap in human progress has this in common | Jason Crawford: Full Interview

Episode Overview

• Jason Crawford argues that the progress of the last few centuries is the greatest event in human history, but emphasizes that it is not inevitable and requires a conscious, pro-progress philosophy to continue.
• The episode traces the history of the idea of progress, from ancient cyclical or declinist views to the optimism of the Enlightenment, followed by the deep skepticism that emerged after the World Wars demonstrated technology's destructive potential.
• It details the key technological and systemic drivers of the Industrial Revolution, including the steam engine's revolution of energy, major advances in health and medicine, and the rise of mass production through precision manufacturing.
• The conversation explores the accelerating, self-reinforcing nature of progress, discusses a recent slowdown in the physical world (the "great stagnation"), and concludes with an optimistic vision for humanity's future potential.

Key Concepts

• Philosophy of Progress: The core belief that progress is not an automatic force but a result of human choice, effort, and a culture that believes advancement is both possible and desirable.
• Historical Views of Progress: The evolution of human thought from a belief in a past "golden age" to the modern idea, championed by thinkers like Francis Bacon, that humanity can systematically create a better future.
• 20th-Century Skepticism: The World Wars shattered naive optimism about technology, proving that material advancements could amplify destruction and leading to widespread questioning of the inherent goodness of progress.
• The Energy Revolution: The shift from limited, location-dependent power (wind, water, muscle) to storable, transportable, and scalable energy via the steam engine and fossil fuels, which broke the "boundaries of time and space."
• Drivers of Industrialization: Beyond energy, progress was driven by breakthroughs in medicine that dramatically reduced mortality, precision machine tools that enabled mass production, and new transportation and communication technologies like the locomotive and telegraph.
• The Acceleration of Progress: The concept that progress is a self-reinforcing feedback loop where each new technology or discovery serves as a platform that speeds up the pace of future innovation.
• The Great Stagnation: The theory that progress in the physical world (energy, manufacturing, transportation) has slowed significantly over the last 50 years compared to the rapid advancements in the digital world (computers, internet).

Quotes

• At 0:24 - "I think progress doesn't happen automatically. It's not inevitable. Progress happens when we choose to make it happen. It happens through choice and effort." - He emphasizes that progress is an active process requiring human agency, not a passive or guaranteed force of history.
• At 9:03 - "The World Wars of the 20th century violently shattered those naive illusions... It was clear that technology had not led to an end to war, it had made war all the more terrible and destructive." - Crawford explains the historical turning point where naive optimism about progress gave way to deep skepticism.
• At 18:13 - "We broke the boundaries of time and space. We didn't have to use the energy where and when it was found. We could store it, we could transport it, we could use it anywhere, anytime, have 24/7 power, and scale it up massively..." - The speaker explains how the steam engine and storable fuel revolutionized humanity's ability to apply energy.
• At 22:36 - "Prior to the Industrial Revolution, you know, most products were made by hand. Now today, they are mass-produced in factories." - He explains that the shift from artisanal craft to mass production was a key technological leap.
• At 26:18 - "Progress begets progress... The invention or the new technology or infrastructure is so fundamental that it feeds back into the process of making progress itself." - The speaker explains the concept of a virtuous cycle where new tools and knowledge accelerate the very act of discovery and invention.
• At 38:06 - "The most important thing I believe about the future is that the future can be as well-off relative to the present as the present is compared to the past." - He concludes with an optimistic vision, suggesting that the potential for future improvement is as vast as the progress humanity has already achieved.

Takeaways

• Actively choose progress; it is not guaranteed. Continued advancement requires a deliberate cultural and philosophical commitment to solving problems and building a better future.
• View material and technological progress as the essential foundation for human flourishing, as it creates the conditions for longer, healthier lives and the pursuit of higher intellectual and creative values.
• Recognize that fundamental breakthroughs in areas like energy and manufacturing create powerful feedback loops that accelerate overall progress, making investment in such areas a high-leverage activity.
• Overcome the recent slowdown in physical-world progress by addressing institutional roadblocks and recapturing a sense of ambition, as our potential for future growth is not limited by technology but by our own choices.