EUA: O PESO DO FED PARA OS INVESTIMENTOS EM 2026

Episode Overview

• The episode explores the growing internal division and polarization within the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), a departure from its historically cohesive decision-making process.
• It highlights the significant political influence, particularly from former President Trump, on the Fed's appointments and policy discussions, leading to a more politicized environment.
• The speakers discuss the potential succession of the Fed chair, the candidates involved (like Kevin Hassett and Christopher Waller), and how this transition could impact market stability.
• The conversation analyzes how this internal friction and external pressure could undermine the Fed's credibility, leading to increased market volatility and making its future actions less predictable.

Key Concepts

• Fed Committee Polarization: The speakers note that the Fed's committee is experiencing unprecedented and "glaring" divergences among its members, moving away from its traditional consensus-driven approach.
• Political Intervention: The discussion points to direct intervention from the Trump administration as a primary cause for this polarization, citing the appointment of politically aligned members and public pressure on the Fed chair.
• Institutional Deterioration: This politicization is framed as an "institutional deterioration," where decisions may be influenced more by political dynamics than by purely economic analysis.
• Impact on Credibility and Volatility: A divided and politically pressured Fed loses credibility. This uncertainty makes it harder for the market to anticipate policy, leading to higher volatility and risk premiums.
• Succession Planning: The choice of the next Fed chair is presented as a critical event that will signal the future direction of the institution, with different candidates representing different policy leanings and levels of political independence.

Quotes

• At 00:45 - "Durante a nossa vida, carreira profissional, o Fed sempre foi uma entidade muito coesa na decisão e na informação... E, dessa vez, as divergências estão mais claras e gritantes, assim, entre os membros." - The speaker contrasts the Fed's historical unity with its current state of clear and significant internal division.
• At 01:20 - "Eu acho que isso gerou, assim, uma, um mal-estar dentro do comitê, tá? E dentro do staff." - This quote describes the negative internal consequences of the political pressure and polarization, suggesting it has created a difficult working environment within the Fed.
• At 04:23 - "A partir do momento que ele tá sob algum tipo de cheque de credibilidade, mas no sentido de tá mais incerto o que ele vai fazer, vai aumentar a vol, né?" - The speaker explains the direct link between the Fed's reduced predictability (due to internal division) and the resulting increase in market volatility.

Takeaways

• Monitor Individual Fed Member Statements: Instead of focusing only on the official committee decision, it's now crucial to pay attention to the dissenting votes and individual speeches of Fed members to understand the growing internal fractures and anticipate future policy shifts.
• Factor Political Risk into Monetary Policy Analysis: The Fed can no longer be viewed as a purely technocratic body. Investors must now incorporate political pressures and the potential for politically motivated appointments as key variables when forecasting U.S. monetary policy.
• Prepare for Increased Market Volatility: The decline in the Fed's internal consensus and its loss of predictability mean that its meetings and communications are less likely to be "non-events." This environment translates to a higher likelihood of market volatility around policy decisions.