ENTENDA O PORTFÓLIO DA XP ASSET

Episode Overview

• Marcos Peixoto of XP Asset discusses his decision to raise a 20% cash position after the market's recent run-up, viewing it as a price-driven move rather than a macro call.
• He explains his portfolio's 100% domestic focus, highlighting a strategic avoidance of dollar-sensitive assets like commodities due to unfavorable risk-reward dynamics.
• Peixoto details his current strategy of selectively deploying cash into sectors that have lagged the market, such as clothing retail, while remaining optimistic about long-term themes like education.
• He shares his more cautious stance on sectors that have performed well, like utilities, explaining his rationale for reducing exposure and reallocating capital.

Key Concepts

• Price-Driven Portfolio Management: The core strategy involves making decisions based on asset prices rather than broad macro forecasts. This includes raising cash when valuations seem stretched and buying into sectors that have underperformed.
• Domestic-Focused Strategy: The portfolio is intentionally concentrated in Brazilian domestic companies, avoiding direct exposure to dollar-linked commodities like oil, iron ore, and pulp, with cash serving as a primary hedge.
• Contrarian Sector Opportunities: The discussion highlights finding value in sectors that have been overlooked or punished for short-term reasons. Clothing retail is cited as an example, having been bought after lagging the market rally due to unfavorable weather impacting sales.
• Sector Rotation and Positioning: The portfolio is actively managed across different sectors based on their current valuation and outlook. This includes a reduced position in utilities after a strong performance, a continued bullish view on education, and selective exposure to financials and low-income housing construction.

Quotes

• At 00:42 - "eu tô com caixa mas o meu portfólio também é 100% doméstico, basicamente." - Peixoto explains the fundamental structure of his portfolio, highlighting the combination of a significant cash buffer with a complete focus on domestic Brazilian equities.
• At 01:52 - "Foi o único setor que não subiu com a alta da bolsa, né? Assim, um setor de beta, né?" - He describes his contrarian rationale for investing in clothing retail, pointing out that it was a high-beta sector that paradoxically failed to participate in the recent market rally, creating an opportunity.
• At 09:04 - "E Tenda, eu acho que é o nome que ficou um pouco para trás... mas quando a gente olha o que a empresa entregou e o que subiu, eu acho que ainda tem um um um upside interessante." - When discussing the low-income housing sector, he identifies Tenda as a specific company that, despite performing well, still offers an attractive upside relative to its operational execution.

Takeaways

• Consider raising cash when markets feel overextended, using it as a strategic tool to capitalize on future corrections rather than trying to time the top perfectly.
• Look for investment opportunities in high-quality sectors or companies that have lagged a broad market rally due to specific, potentially temporary, headwinds.
• A domestically focused portfolio can still be effectively managed by diversifying across different economic cycles and using a cash position as a key tool for risk mitigation.