ELEIÇÕES 2026: NOSSA PROBABILIDADE DE ACERTAR O QUE VAI ACONTECER É BAIXA

Episode Overview

• A discussion on the Brazilian stock market's strong performance, which was initially driven by external factors before being influenced by domestic political optimism.
• Analysis of the recent market turbulence caused by a shift in the 2026 presidential election narrative, with Flávio Bolsonaro emerging as a potential candidate over Tarcísio de Freitas.
• Marcos Peixoto from XP Asset Management shares his view that it's too early to make investment decisions based on election predictions, highlighting the market's tendency to overreact to political news.
• A look at how the firm is positioning its portfolio, maintaining a cash reserve to capitalize on volatility while avoiding getting swept up in market euphoria or panic.

Key Concepts

• Market Drivers: The conversation distinguishes between the two phases of the market's performance. Until September, the rally was attributed almost entirely to external factors favoring emerging markets. From October onwards, domestic factors, particularly a positive political outlook, began to drive performance.
• Political Scenario Shift: The market had been pricing in a scenario where Tarcísio de Freitas would be the clear right-wing candidate for the 2026 presidential election. Recent news suggesting Flávio Bolsonaro could be the candidate, with Tarcísio's support, introduced significant uncertainty and caused a market sell-off.
• Market Psychology: The speakers discuss the financial market's tendency to become overly emotional and euphoric. The recent political news served as a reality check, but the underlying belief among many investors is that the initial, more market-friendly scenario will ultimately prevail.
• Portfolio Positioning: In response to the rapid rise in asset prices and emerging uncertainties, a cautious strategy involves holding a higher cash position. This allows for flexibility and the ability to take advantage of price corrections caused by market overreactions.

Quotes

• At 00:21 - "uma perspectiva que estava dando uma falsa sensação de uma nuance clara para o cenário político, que é o principal assunto." - Lucas Collazo provides context, explaining that before the recent news, the market had a misleading sense of certainty regarding the 2026 political landscape.
• At 01:55 - "dá pra dizer que a alta da bolsa do ano foi zero política, foi 100% externo." - Marcos Peixoto explains that for most of the year, up until September, the Brazilian market's gains were not driven by domestic politics but by favorable global conditions for emerging markets.
• At 04:50 - "o mercado financeiro, como sempre, a Faria Lima, o Leblon, sempre se emociona mais do que deveria." - Marcos Peixoto comments on the market's psychology, stating that the financial community often has an exaggerated emotional reaction to news, which is a factor to consider when investing.

Takeaways

• Avoid making long-term investment decisions based on early, speculative political news, as the situation is highly uncertain and prone to frequent changes.
• Differentiate between the underlying drivers of market movements—whether they are global trends or domestic expectations—to better assess the sustainability of a rally.
• Maintaining a strategic cash position can be advantageous in a euphoric market, providing the flexibility to capitalize on opportunities that arise from inevitable corrections and volatility.