Debunking Media Myths About Venezuela

Episode Overview

• The episode begins with light-hearted banter about classic real-time strategy video games like Age of Empires and Civilization, which sparks an idea for a future episode on "geopolitical computer games."
• The main discussion centers on a deep analysis of a recent US-Venezuela deal, reframing the outcome not as regime change but as a successful "regime recalibration" from a US perspective.
• The hosts deconstruct several prevailing myths surrounding the deal, arguing it is not a setback for China, was not approved by Russia, and does not represent a new, broadly applicable US foreign policy doctrine.
• The conversation emphasizes the critical mistake of applying a specific policy success from one context (Venezuela) to a vastly different one (Iran), highlighting how Iran could impose significant costs in retaliation.
• A core theme is the importance of recognizing the national agency of smaller countries like Venezuela and Cuba, urging a move away from a Cold War-era mindset that views them merely as pawns of great powers.

Key Concepts

• Nostalgic Gaming Discussion: The hosts reminisce about classic real-time strategy games, including Age of Empires, Age of Mythology, the Civilization series, and Star Trek: Armada.
• US-Venezuela Negotiations: The discussion analyzes the specifics of the US-Venezuela deal, noting the constructive engagement between US negotiators and Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez.
• Regime Recalibration: The concept that a successful foreign policy outcome can involve altering a regime's behavior and strategic posture without achieving a full overthrow or "regime change."
• Context-Specific Foreign Policy: The argument that the strategy used in Venezuela is unique to its circumstances and cannot be replicated as a playbook for other adversaries, particularly Iran.
• Asymmetric Retaliation: The potential for a state like Iran to impose significant costs on the US and global economy through low-cost, asymmetric tactics, such as disrupting the Strait of Hormuz with small boats.
• Debunking Geopolitical Myths: The hosts dismantle several narratives, including the ideas that the deal is a blow to China's influence, that Russia "approved" it, or that the US will now control Venezuela.
• National Agency of Smaller States: The principle that countries like Venezuela and Cuba are not just proxies or pawns in great power competition but have their own interests and decision-making capabilities.

Quotes

• At 0:12 - "You can still play Age of Empires online.' My productivity just tanked. You're not going to see any more analysis from me on Venezuela. I'm going to be too busy." - Jacob shares his humorous reaction after learning that one of his favorite old video games is still available to play.
• At 0:46 - "I was a big fan of Civilization series. That was the one that probably, like, could have taken my life in a completely different direction." - Marko jokes about the immersive and time-consuming nature of the historical strategy game series Civilization.
• At 1:11 - "This brings up the fact that we will record an entire episode just on this: the most geopolitical computer games/slash video games." - Stemming from their conversation, Marko proposes a new podcast episode idea that would bridge their personal interests with their professional expertise.
• At 24:57 - "[US negotiators] talked about Delcy, that Venezuelan Vice President, how they said she was constructive, they had good conversations with her." - Jacob Shapiro contrasts the positive US engagement with a key Venezuelan official to the lack of similar engagement with Iran's IRGC.
• At 25:27 - "I would say it's like regime recalibration in a significant way from an American perspective. From the perspective of the Venezuelan people, it doesn't seem like it." - Marko Papic redefines the US success in Venezuela, distinguishing it from a full regime change.
• At 26:15 - "Pump the brakes, relax guys, take a chill pill. That's not gonna happen." - Papic dismisses the narrative that the US is now going to run or control Venezuela following the recent deal.
• At 26:47 - "That's usually what how politicians and policymakers make mistakes. They take one success and apply it to something else." - Papic warns against the danger of misapplying the perceived success in Venezuela to other, different geopolitical situations like Iran.
• At 27:56 - "[Iran] can load up thousands and thousands of dinghies and Zodiac boats with explosives and shut down the Strait of Hormuz... a very low cost, very cheap way to interrupt shipping." - Papic describes one of the "meaningful ways" Iran can retaliate and impose costs on the US and the global economy.
• At 29:55 - "This has nothing to do with China. This changes absolutely nothing for China." - Jacob Shapiro debunks the idea that the US-Venezuela deal is a significant blow to China's global reach.
• At 32:26 - "It's not 1986, it's 2026. Venezuela and Cuba have agency. They have a mind of their own." - Papic refutes the Cold War-era mindset that smaller countries are merely pawns of great powers.

Takeaways

• Avoid the policymaker's trap of applying a successful strategy from one unique geopolitical situation to another, as contexts and adversary responses will differ dramatically.
• Reframe foreign policy goals beyond the binary of "regime change" vs. "status quo" to include "regime recalibration," which focuses on meaningfully altering a government's behavior.
• In geopolitical analysis, always treat smaller nations as sovereign actors with their own agency and interests, rather than as simple pawns in a great power chess match.
• Actively question and deconstruct popular narratives surrounding major international events, as they are often simplistic or entirely mythical.
• Recognize that even technologically weaker adversaries can impose significant costs on superpowers through well-executed, asymmetric strategies.
• Exploring complex topics like geopolitics through the accessible and engaging lens of personal hobbies, such as video games, can yield unique insights.