COMO O BITCOIN VIROU PIX GLOBAL? | LIGHTNING NETWORK EXPLICADA
Audio Brief
Show transcript
This episode explores a framework for valuing "Bitcoin Treasury Companies" based on their ability to accumulate more bitcoins per share over time.
Three key insights stand out: first, focus on a company's ability to increase bitcoins per share; second, understand the fundamental trade-off between self-custody and potential Bitcoin yield; and third, recognize opportunities presented by new, misunderstood asset classes.
When analyzing companies that hold Bitcoin, prioritize their efficiency in increasing Bitcoin per share as a primary indicator of value. This metric helps assess long-term performance and shareholder returns, moving beyond short-term market sentiment.
Investing in a Bitcoin Treasury Company involves a fundamental trade-off. Investors sacrifice the sovereignty of direct self-custody for the potential to earn a "Bitcoin yield" and the convenience offered by corporate management, but must also consider added regulatory and custodial risks inherent in indirect exposure.
The market often hesitates to apply traditional long-term valuation models to new investment strategies, especially those as nascent as Bitcoin Treasury Companies. This reluctance can present a significant opportunity for diligent investors willing to undertake the analytical work the broader market currently avoids.
This framework offers a critical perspective for understanding and evaluating the evolving landscape of Bitcoin-backed corporate strategies.
Episode Overview
- The speaker introduces a framework for valuing "Bitcoin Treasury Companies" based on their ability to accumulate more bitcoins per share over time.
- He discusses the market's reluctance to apply long-term valuation models to this new investment strategy due to its recent emergence.
- The conversation explores the fundamental trade-offs for investors between holding Bitcoin directly (with self-custody) versus investing in companies that hold Bitcoin.
- The hosts also touch upon the potential benefits, risks, and regulatory considerations of investing in these Bitcoin-proxy companies.
Key Concepts
- Bitcoin Treasury Companies: Companies whose primary business model involves acquiring and holding Bitcoin on their balance sheet.
- Bitcoins Per Share: A key metric proposed to measure the performance and long-term value of these companies, focusing on their efficiency in accumulating Bitcoin for their shareholders.
- Bitcoin Yield: The concept that these companies should offer a return in the form of more bitcoins to compensate investors for the risks of not having direct, self-custodied ownership of the asset.
- Valuation Model: The speaker suggests applying traditional long-term valuation methods, such as projecting the growth of bitcoins per share over 10-20 years and bringing it to present value to determine a fair multiple.
- Self-Custody vs. Indirect Exposure: The discussion highlights the core trade-off between the absolute sovereignty of holding your own Bitcoin and the potential for yield and convenience offered by investing in a company that holds it for you.
- Regulatory and Custodial Risk: Investing through a company introduces risks that don't exist with self-custody, such as changes in tax laws, company mismanagement, and the security of the company's Bitcoin holdings.
Quotes
- At 00:02 - "o quanto mais de bitcoins por ação essa companhia vai me dar nos mesmos 10 anos ou 20 anos..." - The speaker explains the fundamental question behind his framework for evaluating companies that hold Bitcoin.
- At 00:40 - "Ninguém quer fazer esse exercício para tanto tempo num negócio tão novo que tem um ano e meio, basicamente." - Highlighting the market's hesitation to apply long-term valuation principles to the relatively new strategy of Bitcoin Treasury Companies.
- At 01:12 - "...teve gente que comprou tudo de bitcoin quando o bitcoin tinha um ano e meio, porque acreditava no bitcoin e fez o dever de casa e se beneficiou disso." - Drawing a parallel between the conviction of early Bitcoin investors and the potential opportunity in believing in and analyzing these new investment vehicles.
Takeaways
- When analyzing a company that holds Bitcoin, focus on its ability to increase the amount of Bitcoin per share over time as a primary indicator of value.
- Understand that investing in a "Bitcoin Treasury Company" is a trade-off: you sacrifice the benefits of self-custody for the potential to earn a "Bitcoin yield."
- Recognize that new, misunderstood asset classes and strategies can present opportunities for those willing to do the analytical work that the broader market is currently avoiding.
