Comitê de Alocação Brasil | Novembro 2025

Episode Overview

• The podcast analyzes the US Federal Reserve's confusing policy signals, which have shifted from a predictable rate-cutting cycle to a more uncertain, data-dependent stance, creating market confusion.
• It assesses credit risks in the US market, concluding that while problems exist in Business Development Companies (BDCs) and small regional banks, they are contained and do not pose a systemic threat.
• The discussion presents a counter-consensus view that Brazil's economy is surprisingly resilient, driven by a massive fiscal stimulus in the second half of the year that is boosting activity beyond market expectations.
• Finally, it explores the implications of this economic strength for Brazil's monetary policy, highlighting the debate over the neutral interest rate and detailing a tactical portfolio shift towards Brazilian equities.

Key Concepts

• US Monetary Policy Uncertainty: The Federal Reserve's pivot away from a clear "cut, cut, cut" narrative towards a more ambiguous and flexible policy stance, leaving markets unsure of its reaction function.
• Concentrated Credit Risk: The identification of credit deterioration in specific US market segments, namely Business Development Companies (BDCs) and smaller regional banks, as opposed to a widespread, systemic issue.
• Systemic vs. Non-Systemic Events: A framework used to differentiate contained financial problems from those large enough to threaten the entire system, comparing the current BDC issue (est. $65B loss) to the 2008 crisis (over $700B loss).
• Brazilian Economic Resilience: The core thesis that Brazil's economy is outperforming consensus forecasts, supported by strength in the manufacturing and services sectors, as well as a robust labor market.
• Fiscal Impulse as a Growth Driver: The recognition that a significant increase in government spending concentrated in the second half of the year is the primary engine behind Brazil's better-than-expected economic activity.
• Critique of Central Bank Models: The argument that Brazil's Central Bank is making discretionary adjustments to its output gap ("hiato do produto") models, potentially leading to overly optimistic inflation forecasts.
• Neutral Interest Rate ("Juro Neutro") Debate: The major discrepancy between the Central Bank's official 5% neutral rate assumption and XP's model-driven calculation of 8.3%, which reflects the tension created by expansive fiscal policy.
• Tactical Asset Allocation: The strategic decision to increase exposure to Brazilian Equities while reducing positions in credit assets, justified by the more attractive equity risk premium relative to compressed credit spreads.

Quotes

• At 0:37 - "Sempre trazendo uma atualização do cenário global... tivemos recentemente mais uma reunião do Banco Central Americano, que cortou mais uma vez os juros, trouxe uma dúvida em relação à reunião de dezembro." - Victória Tofolo introduces the uncertainty created by the US Federal Reserve's recent actions.
• At 2:16 - "A gente vai falar um pouco do FED, e se teve uma nova mudança na função de reação do FED." - Arthur Wichmann introduces the central theme of whether the US Federal Reserve has altered its policy-making approach.
• At 2:23 - "O FED começou esse ciclo de uma forma relativamente controversa, onde ele aumenta as projeções de inflação, aumenta as projeções de crescimento e começa o ciclo de corte de juros." - Wichmann describes the initial rate cuts as confusing because they occurred alongside upward revisions for inflation and growth.
• At 21:48 - "Eles divulgam hoje um PDD de 1%. Mentira, gente, não é 1% de jeito nenhum, aposto com vocês, entendeu, a hipoteca da minha casa que não é 1% esse PDD." - The speaker emphatically dismisses the officially reported loss provisions for Business Development Companies (BDCs) as unrealistic.
• At 22:30 - "É ruim? É. É sistêmico? Não. Então essa aqui talvez seja a mensagem principal." - The speaker delivers his main conclusion that the BDC issue is problematic but does not pose a systemic risk.
• At 23:44 - "Sim, existe um problema, ele é circunscrito aos Business Development Corporations, aos fundos de crédito e aos pequenos bancos. Não, ele não é um problema sistêmico." - He summarizes his assessment that US credit problems are contained within specific, non-systemic sectors.
• At 24:08 - "Vamos tratar agora do elefante na sala, né? Poxa, tem ou não tem bolha?" - The speaker transitions the discussion to the highly debated topic of a potential market bubble.
• At 49:32 - "Eu continuo com a nossa cabeça de uma atividade melhor que o consenso no segundo semestre." - The speaker reaffirms his team's belief that Brazil's economic activity in the second half of the year will outperform market expectations.
• At 52:43 - "A gente vê um quarto trimestre mais forte do que um terceiro trimestre. Isso aqui é algo que é bem contrário ao consenso, tá?" - He presents his forecast for Q4 GDP, highlighting that it contradicts the general market expectation of a slowdown.
• At 56:30 - "E que mostra um novo crescimento, uma nova surpresa no mercado em setembro." - Referring to the services sector data, he points out its continued strength and how it has once again surprised the market.
• At 1:02:00 - "Essa semana a gente teve a prévia dos dados fiscais do mês de outubro... a gente vê o gasto crescendo 9% acima da inflação." - He highlights the substantial real-term increase in government spending, underscoring the powerful fiscal impulse.
• At 1:03:09 - "O Banco Central, de algum tempo para cá... deixou de usar o hiato do produto que é gerado pelo seu modelo só, e começou a fazer ajustes discricionários." - He critiques the Central Bank's methodology, arguing they are making discretionary adjustments to their models to achieve more optimistic conclusions.
• At 76:25 - "Que que é o juro neutro? Juro neutro é a taxa de juros que leva o PIB pro potencial, ou seja, que faz com que o hiato do produto... vá para zero e que a inflação vá para a meta." - The speaker defines the economic concept of the neutral interest rate.
• At 77:09 - "O nosso modelo chega em 8,3." - The speaker contrasts the Central Bank's 5% neutral rate assumption with the much higher result from XP Asset's economic model.
• At 77:42 - "Eu acho que ele mesmo não, não acredita nesses 5%." - The speaker expresses skepticism that the Central Bank itself believes in its stated 5% neutral interest rate, given its hawkish policy actions.
• At 79:31 - "Se a gente mantiver uma política fiscal em que o gasto vai crescer sempre acima do PIB potencial, esse é o juro." - The speaker directly links continued government spending growth above potential GDP to a persistently high neutral interest rate.
• At 96:37 - "Os spreads que a gente tá vendo no mercado de crédito não justificam correr o risco de crédito. Então eu prefiro correr o risco de ações, dado o equity risk premium." - Arthur Wichmann explains the tactical decision to shift allocation from credit to equities based on relative valuation.
• At 98:02 - "Acho que isso é muito circunscrito a uma instituição financeira específica, até onde a gente sabe." - Arthur Wichmann comments on a recent bank issue in Brazil, stating his belief that it does not represent a systemic risk.

Takeaways

• Approach the US Federal Reserve's guidance with caution, as its policy function is flexible and can pivot quickly based on new data.
• Recognize that US credit market stress is currently confined to specific sectors like BDCs and small banks, rather than indicating a systemic threat.
• Expect Brazil's economy to outperform consensus estimates in the short term, primarily due to a powerful and concentrated fiscal stimulus.
• Monitor real-time indicators like heavy vehicle traffic and services sector data for an accurate pulse on the strength of the Brazilian economy.
• Maintain a degree of skepticism towards official economic models from Brazil's Central Bank, which may contain adjustments that paint an overly optimistic picture.
• Understand that Brazil's current fiscal policy necessitates a high neutral interest rate, creating a long-term challenge for controlling inflation.
• Anticipate that political pressure and favorable short-term inflation data could lead Brazil's Central Bank to begin cutting interest rates, even if underlying fundamentals remain challenging.
• Evaluate shifting portfolio allocation towards Brazilian equities, as they may offer a more attractive risk premium compared to tightening credit spreads.
• Acknowledge that significant foreign investment inflows are a key tailwind and a major driver of positive performance for Brazilian assets.
• Differentiate between isolated issues at specific financial institutions in Brazil and a systemic banking crisis, as the latter is not currently a concern.