AS DUAS GUERRAS DE TRÓIA E O OURO COMO ESCUDO: PREVISÕES DE 2026, POR RUY ALVES DA KINEA

Episode Overview

• The upcoming year is framed as "The Iliad," featuring two "Trojan Wars": the pivotal presidential elections in the United States and Brazil, which are described as fundamental battles for survival.
• Investing in Brazil presents a unique challenge due to its extremely high long-term real interest rates, which create a significant "cost of carry" and make it "the country of fixed income," even for stock market investors.
• The traditional value investing concept of "margin of safety" is now obsolete because it fails to account for the exponential, not linear, nature of technological disruption that defines the modern market.
• In today's landscape, where nearly all real profit growth comes from the tech sector, success requires abandoning old formulas and committing to deep, continuous research to understand the rapidly changing, competitive environment.

Key Concepts

• The Iliad & The Odyssey Analogy: The host uses "The Odyssey" to describe the long, perilous journey of investing in Brazil, and "The Iliad" (the Trojan War) to frame the upcoming year's two major political battles: the US and Brazilian elections.
• Gringo Investor Perspective: To invest successfully in emerging markets like Brazil, one should adopt the mindset of a foreign investor, recognizing that equity performance is inseparable from the local currency's performance.
• Cost of Carry: The primary challenge for equity investors in Brazil is the high opportunity cost of forgoing high-yield fixed income. This high "carry" suppresses the valuation of all other assets.
• Long-Term Real Interest Rates: The most critical variable for the Brazilian market is not short-term rates but the long-term real interest rate, which is so high it "kills the value" of assets when projected into perpetuity.
• EWZ vs. Local Indices: The speaker prefers the dollar-denominated EWZ ETF for Brazilian exposure because it includes foreign-listed companies (like Nubank) and helps mitigate the high local carry cost, unlike the Ibovespa or the illiquid Small Caps (SMLL) index.
• The End of Margin of Safety: The classic value investing principle of buying with a "margin of safety" is no longer effective in a market defined by rapid, exponential technological change that can make entire industries obsolete.
• Exponential Technology: The fundamental market shift is that technology grows exponentially, creating a dynamic where old industries are constantly disrupted, a factor not captured by traditional valuation models.
• The Dot-Com Bubble's Legacy: The 2000 dot-com crash created a generation of investors with a deep-seated "horror of technology," causing many to miss the subsequent tech-driven bull market.
• Tech's Dominance in Profit Growth: Since 2010, 100% of the real (after-inflation) profit growth of the global stock market has been generated by the technology sector.

Quotes

• At 0:40 - "Nossa, pergunta fácil pra começar o programa, né, cara?" - Rui Alves jokingly reacts to the broad and complex opening question.
• At 1:17 - "A Odisseia... a gente fez a analogia da volta de Odisseu, né, de Tróia para Ítaca, que é onde é a terra natal dele... como sendo investir no Brasil." - Alves describes the analogy he previously used for investing in Brazil, comparing it to Odysseus's long and treacherous journey home.
• At 2:40 - "Porque vai ser duas Guerras de Tróia em 2026. Uma guerra nos Estados Unidos e uma guerra no Brasil." - He specifies that the "war" metaphor applies to two key events: the elections in the US and Brazil.
• At 2:47 - "...tanto os Estados Unidos quanto o Brasil têm eleições que são eleições fundamentais, eh, de sobrevivência..." - Alves emphasizes the high stakes of the upcoming elections in both countries, framing them as critical moments.
• At 25:30 - "Eu penso basicamente como um gringo que fala português." - The speaker explains his investment philosophy for emerging markets, emphasizing a foreign investor's perspective.
• At 25:43 - "Em mercados emergentes, a equity vem junto com a moeda." - He states that in emerging markets, the performance of stocks is inseparable from the performance of the local currency.
• At 26:49 - "O problema do Brasil para você investir em equity é o carrego." - He identifies the high opportunity cost of forgoing fixed income as the primary challenge for stock investors in Brazil.
• At 29:42 - "O Brasil é o país da renda fixa até na bolsa." - He humorously describes how the high-interest-rate environment dominates all asset valuation in Brazil, including the stock market.
• At 29:50 - "O prêmio de risco de equity... da bolsa brasileira é muito baixo hoje em dia." - He explains that when adjusted for the extremely high real interest rates, the risk premium for investing in Brazilian stocks is actually very low.
• At 56:36 - "Lamento, querido, mas esse processo não funciona." - The speaker dismisses the old-school value investing idea that one can simply buy companies with a margin of safety and avoid risk.
• At 57:00 - "É o fato de que a tecnologia, ela é uma exponencial." - He explains that the fundamental shift in the market is that technology does not grow linearly but exponentially, constantly disrupting established industries.
• At 60:07 - "O crescimento de lucro real da bolsa global é 100% setor de tecnologia." - He makes a powerful statement arguing that since 2010, the only sector that has contributed to the real profit growth of the global stock market has been technology.
• At 68:05 - "Quanto tem que te pagar para você não usar nenhuma ferramenta de inteligência artificial hoje? Esse é o valor." - He frames the immense value of the current AI revolution by asking how much compensation someone would need to give up all AI tools.
• At 71:40 - "O mercado é uma grande festa americana... Você não pode tirar nada da mesa se você não levar alguma coisa." - He uses the analogy of a potluck party to describe the market: to get returns, an investor must first bring their own contribution of deep research.
• At 73:06 - "Às vezes, você não tem que fazer o seu melhor, às vezes você tem que fazer o necessário." - Citing Winston Churchill, he advises that simply trying your best isn't enough; you must do the intensive work required to succeed.

Takeaways

• Prepare for significant volatility by viewing major political events, like the upcoming US and Brazilian elections, as high-stakes "battles" that will fundamentally impact markets.
• When investing in an emerging market, always pair your equity analysis with a thorough analysis of the country's currency, as the two are inextricably linked.
• In high-interest-rate countries like Brazil, always factor in the "cost of carry" (the return from risk-free fixed income) as a primary headwind against equity valuations.
• Abandon outdated value investing formulas like "margin of safety" that are ill-equipped to handle the disruptive and exponential nature of modern technology.
• Shift your investment focus to understand the exponential growth curves of technology companies rather than relying on historical performance or linear projections.
• Acknowledge that real profit growth is now concentrated in the tech sector and adjust portfolio strategies to reflect this modern market reality.
• Evaluate the true value of new technologies by considering their indispensability and transformative impact, not just their current earnings multiples.
• To succeed in today's market, you cannot be a passive investor; you must bring your own "dish to the party" through deep, original, and continuous research.
• Adopt a new work ethic for investing: it's not enough to do your best; you must do the "necessary" work required to understand a complex and rapidly changing landscape.