America’s Return to Imperial Power Starts in Venezuela | Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic

Episode Overview

• The episode uses the satirical premise of a successful, fictional US invasion of Venezuela to critique the hypocrisy of US foreign policy and its long history of interventionism in Latin America.
• A debate unfolds on the modern geopolitical relevance of the Monroe Doctrine, comparing the strategic importance and resource wealth of Venezuela and Cuba, with one speaker drawing a parallel between the US-Cuba and China-Taiwan relationships.
• The discussion introduces the concept of a "fear of success," arguing that an easy victory (like the one in Venezuela) could breed dangerous overconfidence, leading to disastrous interventions in more complex regions like Iran.
• The hosts warn that financial markets are mispricing risk by focusing on potential new oil supplies from Venezuela, while ignoring the much larger threat of a major conflict, coining the term "Chuck Norris premium" to describe this new, unpredictable risk.

Key Concepts

• US Foreign Policy Critique: The podcast argues that overt interventionism is not new but a consistent element of US policy in Latin America for centuries, with modern actions differing only in their lack of "noble" rhetorical justification.
• The Monroe Doctrine's Relevance: The speakers debate whether recent actions constitute a meaningful reassertion of the Monroe Doctrine or if US dominance in the Western Hemisphere was ever truly in doubt.
• Strategic Geopolitical Analogies: The conversation uses comparisons—like the US to Cuba vs. China to Taiwan, and the 2001 Afghanistan invasion to the 2003 Iraq War—to illustrate strategic vulnerabilities and policy miscalculations.
• Resource Geopolitics: The discussion highlights how natural resources, including Venezuela's vast oil reserves and Cuba's significant nickel deposits, are central to the strategic and economic interests driving geopolitical conflicts.
• The "Fear of Success" Doctrine: The theory that an easy, low-cost military victory can create dangerous overconfidence in policymakers, leading them to underestimate the risks of subsequent, far more complex interventions.
• The "Chuck Norris Premium": A newly coined term for an unpredictable geopolitical risk premium that must be applied to financial assets (especially oil) following the success of unconventional, high-risk foreign policy actions.
• Oil Market Mispricing: The idea that markets are reacting simplistically to the idea of more Venezuelan oil, while failing to price in the much larger risk of a potential conflict in the Middle East that could be triggered by the "fear of success."

Quotes

• At 1:32 - "President Trump, golf clap, I salute you for embracing what has always been US foreign policy." - Jacob sarcastically praises Trump for being transparently interventionist, unlike previous presidents who he says cloaked similar actions in noble rhetoric.
• At 2:00 - "Just because previous administrations wanted to dress it up in the context of the Cold War, or the fight against poverty...this is how US foreign policy has always worked." - Jacob asserts that the US has a long history of interventionism in Latin America, which was simply framed differently by past leaders.
• At 7:48 - "Alright, here is conspiracy Marko." - Marko puts on a ski helmet covered in stickers, signaling a shift to a more speculative or conspiratorial analysis of the situation.
• At 21:37 - "I'm just not sure that any of this is that geopolitically relevant." - In response to the idea that a regime change in Cuba would be a major geopolitical event, the speaker downplays its overall importance.
• At 22:20 - "I just don't want us to overstate the Monroe Doctrine. It's not like the United States of America somehow was on the back foot in Latin America and Central America." - The speaker argues against viewing recent events as a dramatic comeback for U.S. influence, stating that U.S. dominance was never truly in question.
• At 22:36 - "I think the analogy is the United States is to Cuba as China is to Taiwan." - The speaker counters by framing Cuba as a strategic vulnerability for the U.S. on par with Taiwan's significance to China.
• At 23:00 - "The Bay of Pigs was a major failure. This is a no-go zone for the United States... it is literally the only weakness on the board for the United States in North America." - Highlighting the historical failure in Cuba as a persistent strategic weakness for the U.S. in its own hemisphere.
• At 23:37 - "Cuba has plenty of resources of its own. It's one of the biggest reserves of nickel in the entire world. Elon Musk is baiting himself in ketamine... because he's looking at the nickel batteries." - The speaker emphasizes Cuba's significant and technologically relevant natural resources, suggesting its economic potential is often overlooked.
• At 48:22 - "I think that we need a Chuck Norris premium, as I told my clients today." - The speaker introduces his core thesis that a new type of geopolitical risk, inspired by the successful fictional raid, needs to be priced into markets.
• At 50:30 - "My fear right now is the fear of success." - Introducing the central concept that an easy victory can be dangerous because it encourages overconfidence for future, riskier endeavors.
• At 50:43 - "My pet theory is that we invaded Iraq because invading Afghanistan was so fucking successful." - The speaker provides a stark historical example of the "fear of success" doctrine, linking the 2001 and 2003 US invasions.
• At 51:13 - "What the fuck can we do next? We're on a roll here, baby. Let's go." - Characterizing the overconfident mindset of policymakers after an easy victory, which can lead to catastrophic strategic mistakes like the Iraq War.
• At 54:05 - "Everyone who's sitting there cheerleading $40 oil right now should be ready for $100 oil." - A stark warning that the market is misinterpreting the situation, focusing on a potential small increase in oil supply while ignoring the massive risk of a new Middle Eastern conflict.

Takeaways

• Analyze current foreign policy events through a historical lens, recognizing that many actions are continuations of long-standing policy rather than new developments.
• Pay close attention when policymakers abandon diplomatic rhetoric for bluntness, as it may offer a more honest view of their underlying motives and objectives.
• Re-evaluate the strategic importance of seemingly minor nations, as they can represent significant unresolved weaknesses for major powers and hold critical, overlooked resources.
• Use historical analogies, such as the path from Afghanistan to the Iraq War, to identify patterns of overconfidence that could lead to future policy blunders.
• Be wary of "easy victories" in geopolitics, as the resulting overconfidence is often a leading indicator of a future, more catastrophic miscalculation.
• When analyzing markets, factor in a new premium for unpredictable, unconventional geopolitical actions that defy traditional risk models.
• Challenge the market's initial, first-order reaction to events and instead focus on identifying the less obvious, second-order risks that may be far more significant.
• Remember that control over key industrial and energy resources, from oil to nickel, remains a fundamental driver of international strategy and potential conflict.