AÇÃO DE BITCOIN TREASURY OU COMPRAR BTC DIRETO? | ANÁLISE DE RISCOS E BENEFÍCIOS

Episode Overview

• The speaker explains how to evaluate companies whose primary strategy is to hold and accumulate Bitcoin, focusing on the key metric of "Bitcoin per share" growth over time.
• He discusses the market's challenge in valuing these companies, as the business model is only about 1.5 years old, making long-term financial projections difficult for traditional analysts.
• The conversation highlights the fundamental trade-off for investors: giving up the direct ownership and self-custody of Bitcoin in exchange for a "Bitcoin yield" offered by these companies.
• Regulatory and tax differences between countries, like Brazil and Japan, are explored to show how they can make indirect investment through stocks more or less appealing than direct crypto ownership.
• The speaker addresses key risks, such as debt-related liquidation and asset custody, and explains how his company mitigates them by operating without debt and using reputable, audited custodians.

Key Concepts

• Bitcoin per Share: This is the core metric for evaluating companies that hold Bitcoin as their treasury strategy. The main goal is to analyze how much this metric is projected to grow over a long-term horizon (10-20 years).
• Valuation Hesitancy: The traditional financial market is reluctant to apply long-term valuation models (like discounted cash flow) to these companies because the strategy is very new, with metrics like MNVA and Bitcoin Yield having only about 1.5 years of history.
• Bitcoin Yield: This refers to the increase in an investor's Bitcoin holdings over time by owning shares in a company that accumulates Bitcoin. It is presented as the main compensation for not having direct ownership and self-custody of the asset.
• Direct vs. Indirect Exposure: The episode contrasts the benefits of holding Bitcoin directly (uncensorable, unconfiscatable) with investing indirectly through a company's stock. The latter sacrifices direct control for potential yield and, in some jurisdictions, tax advantages.
• Regulatory Impact: The discussion shows how tax laws can influence investment decisions. For example, in Japan, prohibitive taxes on direct Bitcoin gains make investing through company stocks a more tax-efficient alternative.
• Risk Management: The speaker differentiates his company by highlighting its lack of debt, which eliminates the risk of forced liquidation of its Bitcoin holdings. He also emphasizes that their assets are held by top-tier, globally recognized custodians, ensuring security.

Quotes

• At 00:03 - "O quanto mais de bitcoins por ação essa companhia vai me dar nos mesmos 10 anos ou 20 anos?" - This is presented as the central question an investor should ask when evaluating a company that holds Bitcoin as its treasury strategy.
• At 00:40 - "Ninguém quer fazer esse exercício para tanto tempo num negócio tão novo, que tem um ano e meio, basicamente." - The speaker explains the market's reluctance to apply long-term valuation models to this nascent business strategy due to its short history.
• At 02:48 - "A gente diz que descobrimos algo melhor que o Bitcoin, que é ter mais Bitcoins." - This quote summarizes the core philosophy behind the investment strategy, which is designed to systematically increase an investor's total Bitcoin holdings over time.

Takeaways

• When analyzing a company that holds Bitcoin, focus on its ability to consistently grow the amount of "Bitcoin per share" over time, as this is a primary indicator of its performance and value generation.
• Understand the fundamental trade-off between yield and sovereignty. Investing in a company for a "Bitcoin yield" means giving up the self-custody and unique properties of holding Bitcoin directly, so weigh this based on your personal investment goals.
• Stay aware of the regulatory and tax landscape for cryptocurrencies and stocks in your country, as changes can create significant advantages or disadvantages for direct versus indirect investment methods.