2026 VAI SER UM ANO DURO? JOSÉ KOBORI ANALISA ECONOMIA, POLÍTICA E GEOPOLÍTICA | Os Economistas 204

Episode Overview

• This episode explores the concept of "Techno-Feudalism," arguing that Big Tech corporations have superseded national governments in power, creating a digital landscape where citizens are serfs and attention is the currency.
• It examines the geopolitical chess match between the United States, China, and Russia, explaining how Brazilian politics and elections are increasingly becoming proxy battles in this global struggle for influence.
• The conversation bridges macroeconomics and personal finance, offering critical analysis on the "liquidity traps" in credit funds, the myth of fiscal austerity, and how investors should position themselves during times of imperial decline and war.
• It provides a historical and logistical framework for understanding modern conflicts, asserting that physical geography (shipping routes, the Arctic, the Black Sea) remains the ultimate determinant of global power.

Key Concepts

• Techno-Feudalism: A shift from traditional capitalism to a system where Big Tech platforms (digital fiefdoms) extract "rents" (data and attention) from users and businesses. These entities now possess more data on populations than sovereign states, allowing for algorithmic manipulation that rivals state intelligence capabilities.
• The "Trump Corollary" & Algorithmic Intervention: Modern regime change is achieved through "information warfare" rather than military coups. Superpowers like the US utilize social media algorithms to polarize populations and steer elections in Latin America to counter Chinese economic influence, making political polarization a strategic weapon rather than just a social issue.
• Price Makers vs. Price Takers: Economic sovereignty depends on being on the "technological frontier." Countries that innovate (Price Makers) dictate global trends, while those relying on commodities (Price Takers, like Brazil) remain vulnerable to cycles. True development requires state investment to transition from exporting raw materials to exporting technology.
• Good Spending vs. Austerity: The podcast reframes the national debt debate. "Bad spending" is waste and privilege, but "Good spending" (infrastructure, R&D) is essential for growth. The US and China grew through massive state investment (deficit spending), challenging the "fiscal austerity" narrative often imposed on developing nations.
• Logistics as Geopolitics: Modern warfare and economic dominance are defined by logistics, not ideology. The US obsession with the Arctic Route, the Strait of Malacca, and the "Belt and Road Initiative" highlights that controlling physical shipping lanes is the primary method of maintaining global hegemony.
• Imperial Overstretch: Drawing on historical cycles, the discussion suggests the US is in decline because it can no longer afford its military expansion. There is a critical mismatch between military ambition and industrial capacity—highlighted by China's ability to produce ships at a rate the US cannot match.
• The Liquidity Mismatch: A crucial financial concept explaining that high-yield private credit funds cannot safely offer immediate liquidity (D+0). When investors panic, funds with illiquid assets forced to pay out immediately must sell assets at a loss, destroying value.
• The "Thucydides Trap" & Proxy Wars: The Ukraine conflict is framed as a predictable geopolitical reaction to NATO expansion threatening Russia's access to warm-water ports (Black Sea). However, it potentially serves as a trap for the West, accelerating the "de-dollarization" of the global economy as sanctions lose effectiveness.

Quotes

• At 0:15:23 - "Um acirramento nessa polarização... Existe um movimento global de acirramento da extrema direita com tudo que possa ser ameaçador para esse projeto de poder que existe no mundo." - Predicting that political tension will worsen due to external global pressures rather than local issues.
• At 0:17:28 - "No Brasil, a via mais fácil é pela eleição. Eles vão tentar influenciar fortemente a eleição no Brasil para colocar um governo mais alinhado aos interesses dos Estados Unidos... é mais barato do que você utilizar força militar." - Explaining that information warfare is the modern, cost-effective alternative to military intervention.
• At 0:19:54 - "Hoje o domínio é das Big Techs... a forma de se manipular e influenciar as populações... é através da tecnologia." - Identifying digital platforms as the new battlefield for sovereignty.
• At 0:25:18 - "Techno-feudalism... is the form that Big Techs are finding to dominate the world economy." - Defining the shift from market capitalism to platform-based dominance.
• At 0:26:57 - "We interact today only with technology... and this enslaves us, enslaves our minds." - Highlights the psychological cost of digital dependence and its role in polarization.
• At 0:30:05 - "Hoje essas Big Techs têm mais informação nossa do que o próprio Estado brasileiro." - A stark realization that corporations now hold more leverage than governments.
• At 0:38:45 - "The problem is that we spend badly. It's not that we spend. Spending in itself is not a problem... [The US and China] have had a fiscal deficit for 40 years." - Challenging the orthodox view that all government debt is inherently negative.
• At 0:42:25 - "Eu acho que hoje ser livre é você ser livre da tecnologia." - Redefining modern liberty as the ability to disconnect from algorithmic manipulation.
• At 0:48:14 - "Fiscal austerity was a thing created in the Washington Consensus... The countries that followed and adopted this model... limited the power of the State." - A critique of economic policies that hinder developing nations from using state investment for growth.
• At 0:56:08 - "O Brasil tem um grande ativo que é a Petrobras... isso mantém o país, o estado brasileiro, com poder de projeção de poder na geopolítica mundial." - Arguing that strategic state assets are tools for geopolitical power, not just companies.
• At 0:58:23 - "Se o país continuar sendo exportador de commodity, a gente vai continuar sendo tomador de preço... Nenhum país se desenvolveu e cresceu sem ser, em alguns setores da economia, formador de preço." - Defining the structural trap of the Brazilian economy.
• At 1:04:03 - "Nosso problema é ter emprego para quem é qualificado... Os melhores cérebros no Brasil não estão no Brasil. Estão trabalhando em empresas estrangeiras." - Addressing the "Brain Drain" caused by a lack of industrial policy.
• At 1:20:03 - "Eu nunca vi humildade fazer vítimas fatais... A ganância cobra um preço caro." - A warning about investor behavior and chasing unrealistic returns.
• At 1:26:12 - "I lost the profitability of two years... and they had 1% of the portfolio in the Americanas paper. Just 1%... look at the impact it had on the profitability of the business." - Illustrating the asymmetry of risk in credit investing.
• At 1:27:23 - "Credit funds, we only recommend with a long redemption period... 40, 45 days... Funds with immediate liquidity? Leave it in the Selic. You don't run risks." - Defining the proper risk management strategy for fixed income.
• At 1:33:00 - "Your product is only competitive if your logistics are competitive." - A fundamental principle explaining China's infrastructure investments.
• At 1:34:20 - "The Arctic route is the shortest route between the American continent and Europe... [Trump] wants to block China's access." - Explaining the strategic rationale behind interest in Greenland and the Arctic.
• At 1:40:17 - "China produced in one year more ships than the United States produced since the post-war era... [The US] has no way to replenish the stock at the speed that a war requires." - Highlighting the gap between US military ambition and industrial reality.
• At 1:56:28 - "Se colocasse a Ucrânia e a Geórgia, ele ia cercar o Mar Negro. E a maior base naval da Rússia é no Mar Negro... é a única saída que a Rússia tem para o Mar Mediterrâneo." - Explaining the strategic geographic necessity behind Russia's actions.
• At 2:10:09 - "A gente tem que ter o pé no chão... parar de investir em coisas muito arriscadas... vai naquelas empresas mais maduras, mais confiáveis, que estão mais ligadas a setores defensivos como saúde, economia real." - Investment advice for the current turbulent period.

Takeaways

• Practice "Deep Reading": Combat the attention economy and algorithmic manipulation by rejecting short-form content in favor of books and long-form study to preserve critical thinking.
• Disconnect for Autonomy: View disconnection from technology not as a leisure activity but as a defense strategy to maintain independence of thought.
• Align Liquidity with Asset Class: Never invest in private credit funds (corporate debt) that offer immediate (D+0/D+1) liquidity. Always look for redemption periods of 40-45 days to avoid the "fire sale" risk.
• Avoid the "FGC Trap": Do not use the Credit Guarantee Fund (FGC) as an investment strategy to back insolvent banks offering high returns. This is gambling on a safety net, not investing.
• Invest in "Real" Economy: In times of geopolitical instability, shift your portfolio away from speculative growth assets and toward mature, defensive sectors like healthcare, utilities, and the real economy.
• Analyze via Logistics: When assessing global conflicts, ignore moral narratives and look at the map—specifically shipping lanes, choke points (Strait of Hormuz/Malacca), and access to ports.
• Recognize Proxy Wars: Understand that domestic political turbulence in Brazil is likely being amplified by foreign powers (US/China) vying for influence; view election narratives with high skepticism.
• Distinguish Spending Quality: When evaluating government policy, look past the total debt number and analyze what is being bought. Investment in capacity (Good) is different from administrative bloat (Bad).
• Beware "Dutch Disease": Do not mistake a temporary economic boom driven by high commodity prices for genuine structural development; true health comes from industrial diversification.
• Monitor the Arctic: Pay attention to news regarding Greenland, Canada, and the Arctic Circle, as this is the emerging frontline for the next major geopolitical struggle over shipping routes.
• Validate "Conservative" Investments: Just because a fund is labeled "Fixed Income" or "Conservative" does not mean it is risk-free. Scrutinize the underlying assets for exposure to single-name credit risks (like Americanas).
• Expect Institutional Erosion: Be prepared for political polarization to weaponize independent institutions (like Central Banks or Judiciaries), which will increase market volatility and economic uncertainty.