2025 ACABOU COM EMOÇÃO PARA O MERCADO

Episode Overview

• Marcos Peixoto of XP Asset discusses the strategy behind his fund's impressive performance in a challenging year.
• He emphasizes that the biggest success was maintaining a disciplined investment process and avoiding panic during the market downturn at the end of the previous year.
• The conversation details their successful contrarian investment in the education sector, specifically Cogna, which was a major generator of alpha.
• Peixoto explains how finding value in overlooked and unpopular sectors can lead to significant returns when the market's perception eventually changes.

Key Concepts

• Investment Process Over Emotion: The fund's success was attributed to not panicking during the market depression at the end of 2022. The strong performance was driven by positions they already held, highlighting the importance of conviction in one's process.
• Defensive Positioning: The portfolio was initially structured with defensive, liquid assets in sectors like utilities, banks, and healthcare, which provided a stable base and performed well without introducing excessive risk.
• Contrarian Value Investing: The episode focuses on a successful investment in the education sector (Cogna and Anima). This sector had been abandoned by the market for nearly a decade, creating an opportunity to invest in operationally improving companies at extremely depressed valuations.
• Discipline and Price Focus: Peixoto stresses the importance of price discipline. When asset prices fell significantly, they viewed it as an opportunity to increase their positions at a more attractive price, rather than a signal to sell in fear.

Quotes

• At 00:35 - "Não acabou ainda não, né? (...) Tá parecendo que ia ser tranquilo, né? O finalzinho quis dar um susto." - Joking about the year's late volatility, highlighting that even in a good year, the market remains unpredictable until the very end.
• At 01:37 - "O nosso grande acerto no ano, na verdade, foi não ter... panicado ali em dezembro do ano passado." - Explaining that their most critical strategic decision was maintaining their composure and investment thesis during the severe market pessimism at the end of 2022.
• At 06:20 - "Eu continuo falando com alguns amigos... as pessoas continuam me ignorando. Isso que eu acho legal. A gente fala, o pessoal acha que você é maluco." - Describing his contrarian thesis on the education sector, emphasizing his comfort in holding positions that the rest of the market misunderstands or ignores.

Takeaways

• Develop and trust a robust investment process to overcome emotional biases, such as panic selling, during periods of intense market volatility.
• Seek investment opportunities in sectors that are deeply out of favor with the market, as extreme pessimism can create significant valuation disconnects and potential for high returns.
• When an asset you own falls in price, re-evaluate the fundamental thesis with a cool head; it may represent a chance to increase your position at a better price, not a reason to sell.